(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| CA-03 | Dan Lungren | 37.72% | 39.63% | R+1.91 | O+0.5 |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | 35.84% | 41.88% | R+6.04 | O+2.8 |
| CA-25 | Buck McKeon | 37.72% | 39.35% | R+1.63 | O+1.1 |
| CA-26 | David Dreier | 35.64% | 40.56% | R+4.92 | O+4.0 |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | 34.70% | 42.38% | R+7.68 | O+0.9 |
| CA-45 | Mary Bono Mack | 37.97% | 41.96% | R+3.99 | O+4.6 |
| CA-48 | John Campbell | 29.41% | 44.87% | R+15.46 | O+0.7 |
| CA-50 | Brian Bilbray | 31.38% | 40.36% | R+8.98 | O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip. |
| Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-04 | Sam Aanestad | 33.05% | 44.10% | R+11.05 | M+11.8 |
| SD-12 | Jeff Denham | 47.46% | 33.09% | D+14.37 | O+17.6 |
| SD-18 | Roy Ashburn | 31.91% | 47.58% | R+15.67 | M+23.1 |
| SD-36 | Dennis Hollingsworth | 28.94% | 46.13% | R+17.19 | M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-16 | Dean Florez | 49.61% | 33.15% | D+16.46 | O+19.5 |
| SD-22 | Gilbert Cedillo | 58.98% | 14.74% | D+44.24 | O+58.7 |
| SD-24 | Gloria Romero | 53.62% | 21.13% | D+32.49 | O+41.3 |
| SD-34 | Lou Correa | 42.82% | 33.58% | D+9.24 | O+16.8 |
| SD-40 | Denise Ducheny | 46.59% | 29.65% | D+16.94 | O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-03 | Dan Logue | 34.81% | 40.15% | R+5.34 | M+1.6 |
| AD-05 | Roger Niello | 37.93% | 38.80% | R+0.87 | O+4.2 |
| AD-25 | Tom Berryhill | 36.84% | 42.30% | R+5.46 | M+7.9 |
| AD-26 | Bill Berryhill | 42.04% | 39.22% | D+2.82 | O+4.4 |
| AD-30 | Danny Gilmore | 46.31% | 36.66% | D+9.65 | O+3.9 |
| AD-33 | Sam Blakeslee | 35.91% | 40.77% | R+4.86 | O+1.4 |
| AD-36 | Steve Knight | 39.56% | 38.65% | D+0.91 | O+0.8 |
| AD-37 | Audra Strickland | 35.86% | 41.40% | R+5.54 | O+3.7 |
| AD-38 | Cameron Smyth | 36.84% | 40.02% | R+3.18 | O+4.9 |
| AD-63 | Bill Emmerson | 37.90% | 40.35% | R+2.45 | O+4.1 |
| AD-64 | Brian Nestande | 36.11% | 41.83% | R+5.72 | O+1.8 |
| AD-65 | Paul Cook | 37.14% | 41.08% | R+3.94 | M+4.1 |
| AD-68 | Van Tran | 32.82% | 41.25% | R+8.43 | M+2.9 |
| AD-70 | Chuck DeVore | 30.19% | 43.49% | R+13.30 | O+3.9 |
| AD-74 | Martin Garrick | 30.89% | 41.68% | R+10.79 | O+2.2 |
| AD-75 | Nathan Fletcher | 30.71% | 39.88% | R+9.17 | O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-07 | Noreen Evans | 52.81% | 23.72% | D+29.09 | O+43.3 |
| AD-09 | Dave Jones | 56.64% | 18.71% | D+37.93 | O+49.0 |
| AD-10 | Alyson Huber | 39.32% | 39.39% | R+0.07 | O+4.0 |
| AD-11 | Tom Torlakson | 54.23% | 22.06% | D+32.17 | O+41.2 |
| AD-15 | Joan Buchanan | 40.60% | 36.09% | D+4.51 | O+16.9 |
| AD-20 | Alberto Torrico | 48.65% | 20.17% | D+18.48 | O+42.3 |
| AD-21 | Ira Ruskin | 47.22% | 26.83% | D+20.39 | O+45.8 |
| AD-23 | Joe Coto | 51.28% | 18.96% | D+32.32 | O+44.4 |
| AD-31 | Juan Arambula | 49.07% | 33.84% | D+15.23 | O+26.1 |
| AD-35 | Pedro Nava | 48.24% | 27.95% | D+20.29 | O+35.6 |
| AD-47 | Karen Bass | 64.93% | 11.27% | D+53.66 | O+71.9 |
| AD-50 | Hector De La Torre | 61.92% | 16.21% | D+45.71 | O+55.9 |
| AD-76 | Lori Saldaña | 41.96% | 26.89% | D+15.07 | O+34.4 |
| AD-78 | Martin Block | 43.09% | 31.54% | D+11.55 | O+21.8 |
| AD-80 | Manuel Perez | 45.33% | 36.49% | D+8.84 | O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68 |
