(More good stuff. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock's less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| CA-03 | Dan Lungren | 37.73% | 39.58% | R+1.85 | O+0.5 |
| CA-04 | Tom McClintock | 31.14% | 45.83% | R+14.69 | M+10.1 |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | 35.83% | 41.82% | R+5.99 | O+2.8 |
| CA-25 | Buck McKeon | 37.77% | 39.29% | R+1.52 | O+1.1 |
| CA-26 | David Dreier | 35.67% | 40.50% | R+4.83 | O+4.0 |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | 34.63% | 42.40% | R+7.77 | O+0.9 |
| CA-45 | Mary Bono Mack | 37.81% | 42.08% | R+4.27 | O+4.6 |
| CA-48 | John Campbell | 29.40% | 44.77% | R+15.37 | O+0.7 |
| CA-50 | Brian Bilbray | 31.40% | 40.27% | R+8.87 | O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip... |
| Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-04 | Sam Aanestad | 33.02% | 44.12% | R+11.09 | M+11.8 |
| SD-12 | Jeff Denham | 47.60% | 32.94% | D+14.66 | O+17.6 |
| SD-18 | Roy Ashburn | 31.88% | 47.62% | R+15.74 | M+23.1 |
| SD-36 | Dennis Hollingsworth | 28.94% | 46.06% | R+17.12 | M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-16 | Dean Florez | 49.59% | 33.10% | D+16.49 | O+19.5 |
| SD-22 | Gilbert Cedillo | 59.01% | 14.66% | D+44.35 | O+58.7 |
| SD-24 | Gloria Romero | 53.63% | 21.04% | D+32.59 | O+41.3 |
| SD-34 | Lou Correa | 42.84% | 33.45% | D+9.39 | O+16.8 |
| SD-40 | Denise Ducheny | 46.57% | 29.50% | D+17.07 | O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-03 | Dan Logue | 34.80% | 40.25% | R+5.45 | M+1.6 |
| AD-05 | Roger Niello | 37.90% | 38.77% | R+0.87 | O+4.2 |
| AD-25 | Tom Berryhill | 36.81% | 42.32% | R+5.51 | M+7.9 |
| AD-26 | Bill Berryhill | 42.06% | 39.23% | D+2.82 | O+4.4 |
| AD-30 | Danny Gilmore | 46.28% | 36.59% | D+9.69 | O+3.9 |
| AD-33 | Sam Blakeslee | 35.92% | 40.69% | R+4.77 | O+1.4 |
| AD-36 | Steve Knight | 39.69% | 38.51% | D+1.18 | O+0.8 |
| AD-37 | Audra Strickland | 35.87% | 41.34% | R+5.47 | O+3.7 |
| AD-38 | Cameron Smyth | 36.85% | 39.91% | R+3.06 | O+4.9 |
| AD-63 | Bill Emmerson | 38.00% | 40.37% | R+2.37 | O+4.1 |
| AD-64 | Brian Nestande | 35.96% | 41.99% | R+6.03 | O+1.8 |
| AD-65 | Paul Cook | 36.82% | 41.64% | R+4.82 | M+4.1 |
| AD-68 | Van Tran | 32.80% | 41.16% | R+8.36 | M+2.9 |
| AD-70 | Chuck DeVore | 30.20% | 43.36% | R+13.16 | O+3.9 |
| AD-74 | Martin Garrick | 30.93% | 41.58% | R+10.65 | O+2.2 |
| AD-75 | Nathan Fletcher | 30.72% | 39.80% | R+9.08 | O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-07 | Noreen Evans | 52.80% | 23.71% | D+29.09 | O+43.3 |
| AD-09 | Dave Jones | 56.66% | 18.67% | D+37.99 | O+49.0 |
| AD-10 | Alyson Huber | 39.33% | 39.32% | D+0.01 | O+4.0 |
| AD-15 | Joan Buchanan | 40.61% | 36.04% | D+4.57 | O+16.9 |
| AD-20 | Alberto Torrico | 48.61% | 20.17% | D+28.44 | O+42.3 |
| AD-21 | Ira Ruskin | 47.27% | 26.75% | D+20.52 | O+45.8 |
| AD-23 | Joe Coto | 51.22% | 18.93% | D+32.29 | O+44.4 |
| AD-31 | Juan Arambula | 49.08% | 33.78% | D+15.80 | O+26.1 |
| AD-35 | Pedro Nava | 48.22% | 27.88% | D+20.34 | O+35.6 |
| AD-47 | Karen Bass | 64.92% | 11.25% | D+53.67 | O+71.9 |
| AD-50 | Hector De La Torre | 62.00% | 16.13% | D+45.87 | O+55.9 |
| AD-76 | Lori Saldaña | 41.94% | 26.85% | D+15.09 | O+34.4 |
| AD-78 | Martin Block | 43.08% | 31.46% | D+11.62 | O+21.8 |
| AD-80 | Manuel Perez | 45.38% | 36.29% | D+9.09 | O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68 |
