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Drilling defeated, HUTA gas tax raid goes down: what now?

by: David Dayen

Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 15:07:25 PM PDT


So the Assembly is wrapping up their budget session, and it turns out that the Assembly came up $1.1 billion dollars short of the Senate's solutions.  Oil drilling failed, and the local government raid on HUTA (gas taxes) failed as well.

So where does that leave us?  These bills will go to the governor, and since there isn't concurrence, it will be roughly a $23 billion solution rather than $24 billion.  But, the Governor has a line-item veto.  He can make various cuts with his blue pencil.  But $1.1 billion?  Who knows.  That seems like a tall order.

Considering what Schwarzenegger did the last time a partial solution was handed to him, I guess there's an outside shot that he'll just say no and open a new extraordinary session.  But he'll probably just line-item some, and maybe make up the difference by eating into what is now a $900 million dollar budget reserve.

Is everybody ready to be back here in October?

...We'll have a couple days for final analyses, but let's remember that this is a terrible budget and a dark day for California.

...Let me clarify.  The Governor can make line-item cuts but he doesn't necessarily have to, because this is a budget revision.  He can also shift around the size of the reserve.  In the end, he doesn't actually have to be in balance for a revision; that's a Constitutional need at the beginning of the process, as I understand it, not now.  Clearly from the Governor's remarks, he's not going to veto the whole thing, so this is the "solution," for now.  There also may be Constitutional problems with some of the stuff passed.

...Apparently, the Governor said, jubilantly, "We missed the iceberg".  First, WE didn't miss anything, YOU dumped the iceberg on poor people.  And second, if you really think you're in the clear, um, don't look behind you.

David Dayen :: Drilling defeated, HUTA gas tax raid goes down: what now?
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October (4.00 / 1)
sounds a bit optimistic.  

What will *we* have done by October? (4.75 / 4)
At this point, the behavior of the Democratic leadership is sadly predictable.  And yeah, this deal is not done.  The Democrats caved too easily, so yeah, the governor and the GOP will back for another bite.

But what will the people reading this site do?  What will activists in California do, between now and October?

If you're reading this, ask yourself that question.  And make sure you have an answer.


Probably nothing. (4.00 / 2)
The people of California, being largely kept in the dark, will concur with every wrong-headed utterance by Messrs. Skelton and Walters about how "we must live within our means" and cut, cut, cut, until we have a budget that leaves nothing intact except police and fire...

...and even fire will be subject to steep cuts.

"The real cynics are the ones who tell you that everything will be alright." - George Carlin


[ Parent ]
But what will *you* do (4.67 / 3)
You are not the "people of California".

I have little patience for cynicism, and less for defeatism.  Yeah, we got beaten bloody yesterday.  We still have the same useless Democratic leadership today we had last year.

But what are we going to do about it?  And what will you do?


[ Parent ]
I wasn't saying *I* would do nothing. (4.00 / 1)
I was just saying how the media will drive home all the wrong conclusions about this crisis, and the public will yet again be kept in the dark about the true nature of this clusterfuck.

I appreciate you calling me out on my bullshit, though.

"The real cynics are the ones who tell you that everything will be alright." - George Carlin


[ Parent ]
To start with (6.00 / 2)
every Democrat who voted for this reprehensible budget should be primaried in 2010.  Progressive Democrats who are actually willing to fight must take over the California Democratic Party in the same way that Progressive Republicans took over the state Republican Party 100 years ago.  I've had enough of feckless dilweeds like Steinberg and Bass.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to start a California Citizens Lobby (6.00 / 3)
Not by myself of course, but I do have a plan.

Grassroots progressive activists need our own real seat at the table. I hope we can develop an online mobilization presence with 1,000,000 people as well as significant boots on the ground via our networks in support of an explicitly progressive agenda.

Actually a lot of it is a regressive agenda: recreate a public higher education system, rebuild the middle class, etc. Only this time we do it within a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable model.

- Janet Stromberg


[ Parent ]
Count me in (0.00 / 0)
I know a number of people who should be in on that.  I know I'd like to be.

Keep us posted.  And if you need help, ask.


[ Parent ]
California Citizens Lobby assets? (5.00 / 1)
To all,

If you've got ideas to contribute or know people who would be helpful in making it successful, please do get in touch.

janet.stromberg@gmail.com

(Pardon if it takes me a couple of days to reply, got some family fun happening this weekend.)


[ Parent ]
They key part of that... (0.00 / 0)
will be to use it to quickly raise funds. If you have a large list like that, you put out a bulletin and say "everyone who can...send in $5 to do XYZ"

[ Parent ]
Yep (5.00 / 3)
There's a whole art to growing a list like that. Gotta have some initial backers to get started too.

I'm one of the Dean people who jumped into this stuff 6 years ago. We have a good body of best practices developed already.

I always wanted to be focused on CA, but everyone was fired up on national issues.

We have more activist here than anywhere else in the country. Not only are we the nation's ATM, we made 50 percent of all GOTV calls for Obama that last two weeks of the campaign.  

I think we have a critical mass of outraged and engaged Californians looking at their own State now. Maybe we can really do it


[ Parent ]
well... (0.00 / 0)
I'd be happy to help.

[ Parent ]
how do I (0.00 / 0)
send you my contact info?

[ Parent ]
i'd love this (0.00 / 0)
Inasmuch as the Republicans are entirely crazy and the Democrats are NOT funded by the people, I want someone at the table FUNDED BY ME.  Actual representation, you know?

So, yea, this sounds like an excellent idea.  


[ Parent ]
Legislators just "Saved" Local Government and the Coast (5.00 / 2)
Gas tax raise voted down, prop 1A securitized at extraordinary expense, redevelopment raid passed, but nobody has a clue what redevelopment is, and that will end up failing in court anyway, so it won't count.

Drilling off the coast blocked.

The media narrative will show this as a great compromise where everybody won.

Nobody's going to look at what happens next year or the year after, when the stimulus money goes away and the PERS bills start escalating, or in 2013 when we owe another 3 billion from the four year 1A borrowing.

The cuts hurt the poor, and they're invisible to the media.

Now the question is how the bond markets react to this deal.

But the SCIF sale is bogus, revenue estimates.

Still need a constitutional convention.

No Real Housewives, but plenty of action at Orange County Progressive.

Come for the politics. Stay for dessert.


I agree with what others (4.00 / 2)
have said about how the media is likely to spin this. I wonder if there is any chance that the middle class public will see this as anything other than business as usual. If that is the predominant response then we have to find a way to convince them that it is something much worse.  

Public persuasion is what politics is all about (0.00 / 0)
Figuring out how to get at middle class attitudes is the core of our problem right now.  To a large extent, what happens with that is literally up to us, and people like us.

This is like fighting the Bush people back in 2002; it's frustrating, you lose far more fights than you win, and the press is not an ally.

A lot of the techniques used in that fight will ultimately be readapted and retasked to the problem at hand.  We are very early in this process.


[ Parent ]
The immediate question (0.00 / 0)
is what is there in this budget deal that directly impacts their lives. Education cuts probably. What else?


[ Parent ]
Local cuts, too (4.00 / 2)
this budget will make it nigh on impossible for local governments to continue to provide all sorts of services that middle class folks do actually use; library funding, for example, is all a huge mess right now. And the education stuff is huge, really -- middle class families with college students are extra screwed, if they don't qualify for any aid to help with the huge fee hikes, just for example.

What I see as the real obstacle isn't that it won't effect those folks, though of course it's hardest on the poor. I think the bigger problem is that everybody at this point is so damned resigned to the state government sucking ass that nobody pays that much attention to it anymore. I don't know to what extent these cuts will get people angry, and to what extent they'll get people even more resigned to it and and more tuned out. Depends, I suspect, on whether anybody presents them with a coherent bigger solution, but folks here are also used to presented "solutions" being filled with gimmick and little else. It's hard to cut through that.


[ Parent ]
One possibility might (0.00 / 0)
be a web site Yelp that just focuses on public services. If you could attract the people who wanted to bitch and complain and then try to channel them in a constructive but simple and structured direction it might build some momentum.  

[ Parent ]
that's an interesting idea...n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Great Question (0.00 / 0)
I think 200,000 California poor children will lose health insurance.

Cal State Univ. will reduce their enrollment by 40,000.

U.C. will reduce their enrollment by 2,500.

Thousands of teachers have been let go. I know L.A.U.S.D let go at least two thousand teachers.

I don't have the estimate, but I believe thousands of disabled people will be pushed into poverty.

I'm certain there is a thousand other casualties of this budget. Most will never be documented.

I hope Calitics can keep a running score of what a disaster this budge will cause.


[ Parent ]
Not just October, but next year (0.00 / 0)
A big chunk of this budget is forced lending, by cities, individuals, and state employees.  This means that next year, the situation will be worse.

Is there anybody who would step up and put a change to Prop. 13 on the ballot before then?

A Rough & Tumble reader.


Please Write for a national audience (0.00 / 0)
I don't know if you have had time for this yet, or if you are doing it, but I find myself hoping you will post about this subject for a national audience, certainly for Dailykos or Huffingtonpost if not for print media.
I am reading nothing about this process that has any meaningful information in the national press, or on the blogs that I check every day.
You have been doing brilliant work here.  We are all in your debt.

i'll drop something tomorrow (0.00 / 0)
probably

[ Parent ]
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