An internal poll released by the Bowen campaign shows the candidate tied with Councilwoman Janice Hahn in the CA-36 primary. Marcy Winograd – who received 41% of the vote against Jane Harman in the 2010 primary race – is only polling at 6%, putting her in 4th place behind Republican Mike Gin.
The Feldman Group conducted the poll among 451 registered likely voters in California Congressional District 36 from April 4-7, 2011. The sample consisted of 401 registered likely voters and an oversample of 50 DTS voters. The margin of error for a sample of 401 is ± 4.9%.
In an initial match-up between all of the declared candidates, Bowen and Hahn are tied at 20 percent each, with the closest candidate, Mike Gin, at 8 percent. Marcy Winograd, another Democrat in the race, receives only 6 percent support. Twenty-four percent of the electorate remains undecided. Bowen dominates in the Beach Cities and Venice with a double digit lead over both Hahn and Winograd, and leads in all geographic regions except the Harbor area..In a run-off matchup between Bowen and Hahn, Bowen (40 percent) pulls ahead of Hahn (36 percent) without any messaging. Sixteen (16) percent are currently undecided. While Hahn may have an advantage of name recognition in the district it is not translating into an advantage in votes, perhaps because her unfavorable rating is double that of Bowen.
Democrats continue to hold an advantage in this district. Voters in the district are more likely to prefer a Democrat (41 percent), and 29 percent say they would prefer a Republican with another 27 percent say that the candidates party doesn’t really matter. Bowen shows her strength over Hahn among Decline-to-State voters, receiving 47 percent of the vote.
Bowen’s lead over Hahn grows even after voters are informed about key endorsers for each candidate (including Feinstein, Lieu, Nakano, Firefighters and others for Hahn) and positive arguments being used by the respective campaigns.
With a July 12th runoff virtually assured, a couple of points jump out at me. At 24% in the primary and %16 in the general election, the number of undecideds in this race will be a huge factor. Hahn has high name recognition, but she also has relatively high negatives – twice that of Bowen – and Hahn’s endorsements don’t seem to have had much effect on her polling.
Hahn’s campaign manager pushed back with an impressive bit of verbal gymnastics,
“We’re stunned that Bowen would release a poll that shows 80% of the voters she represented for 14 years rejecting her.” said campaign manager, Dave Jacobson.
Forgetting the fact Jacobson apparently can’t do math (24% of voters are undecided about anyone yet), did he really mean to highlight Bowen has already represented most of CA-36 for 14 years, and that an equal number of Hahn’s current constituents have rejected the LA City Councilwoman?
As a supporter of Marcy Winograd, I have contacted her former supporters to determine whether they still plan to vote for her. 9 out of the ll former supporters in my own precinct in the south end of Torrance still support her; that’s about 80%. One is now choosing Hahn and the other possibly Bowen, though her spouse is staying with Winograd. If 41% of Democrats chose Winograd vote last time and 80% of them stayed with her, then one might expect at least 30% for Winograd this time, so I question how people sampled in Evry’s poll were chosen.
The Feldman Group, who did the poll, proudly advertise, “We have years of experience of helping clients’ success by providing strategic focus research.” They say they are experts in helping people get “elected”. Don’t you just love those “non-partisan” polls.
Just like the oil people who took short cuts. This poll seems to have taken one too: they did not make a truly random selection of their sample of 400 prospective voters.
If there is a signal indiviudal mobilizing support for Marcy Winograd is the author of this propaganda.
This Bowen fanatic knows next to nothing about reading polling data or the incomplete results being posted to create a false positive which has been the author’s intent for weeks!
Why is it that 52% of those apparently polled have no stated preference? Where are the numbers for Hughey or Webb?
This self-manufactured, political nonsense has no place in a serious discussion or a legitimate poll. The data makes no sense and the margin of error is nearly 5%, Which casts overall doubt on the whole poll itself.
But the Bowen Blogger goes on with potificated talking points she’s being fed by the Bowen camp to taint Winograd as a loser when this so-called front runner can’t garner more than 20% of the stated support of likely voters?
Get real people.
Bowen’s obsession with this dismissal of Winopgrad has destroyed any chance of Marcy’s supporters ever endorsing Bowen under any circumstances due to the volume of anti-Winograd rhetoric generate by this author.
Please, continue to attack Winograd on a daily basis. It will backfire as you avoid your Enron connection and personal financial support of organized labor’s biggest enemy, WAL-MART!