I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.

State	Result	D Electoral Votes	R Electoral Votes
Alabama	Romney by 19.23		9
Alaska	Romney by 20.43		3
Arizona	Romney by 6.84		11
Arkansas	Romney by 22.87		6
California	Obama by 19.92	55
Colorado	Obama by 2.59	9
Connecticut	Obama by 15.74	7
Delaware	Obama by 26.09	3
District of Columbia	Obama by 87.03	3
Florida	Romney by 0.26*		29
Georgia	Romney by 6.71		16
Hawaii	Obama by 36.69	4
Idaho	Romney by 24.19		4
Illinois	Obama by 18.81	20
Indiana	Romney by 5.43*		11
Iowa	Obama by 2.79	6
Kansas	Romney by 13.81		6
Kentucky	Romney by 14.55		8
Louisiana	Romney by 17.52		8
Maine	Obama by 15.29	4
Maryland	Obama by 22.39	10
Massachusetts	Obama by 21.84	11
Michigan	Obama by 5.18	16
Minnesota	Obama by 8.34	10
Mississippi	Romney by 12.06		6
Missouri	Romney by 8.3		10
Montana	Romney by 5.11		3
Nebraksa	Romney by 13.41		5
Nevada	Obama by 3.64	6
New Hampshire	Obama by 3.01	4
New Jersey	Obama by 14.33	14
New Mexico	Obama by 11.66	5
New York	Obama by 26.87	29
North Carolina	Romney by 0.46*		15
North Dakota	Romney by 19.11		3
Ohio	Obama by 2.96	18
Oklahoma	Romney by 29.59		7
Oregon	Obama by 9.78	7
Pennsylvania	Obama by 6.09	20
Rhode Island	Obama by 22.98	4
South Carolina	Romney by 7.87		9
South Dakota	Romney by 6.65		3
Tennessee	Romney by 13.95		11
Texas	Romney by 14.9		38
Utah	Romney by 33.45		6
Vermont	Obama by 37.56	3
Virginia	Obama by 2.05	13
Washington	Obama by 12.05	12
West Virginia	Romney by 12.99		5
Wisconsin	Obama by 5.8	10
Wyoming	Romney by 31.23		3
Total		303	235

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.

State	Result
Delaware	Safe Markell (D)
Indiana	Pence (D) by 7.87
Missouri	Nixon (D) by 13
Montana	Daines (R) by 0.5*
New Hampshire	Hassan (D) by 3
North Carolina	McCrory (R) by 14.25*
North Dakota	Dalrymple (R) by 35
Utah	Safe Herbert (R)
Vermont	Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Washington	Inslee (D) by 0.5
West Virginia	Tomblin (D) by 21
Total Governors	30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent

Now for the Senate races. I don’t know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.

State	Result
Arizona	Carmona (D) by 0.5*
California	Feinstein (D) by 19
Connecticut	Murphy (D) by 4.67
Delaware	Safe Carper (D)
Florida	Nelson (D) by 7.43
Hawaii	Hirono (D) by 18.5
Indiana	Donnelly (D) by 3*
Maine	King (I) by 18*
Maryland	Cardin (D) by 26.09
Massachusetts	Warren (D) by 4.67*
Michigan	Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Minnesota	Klobuchar (D) by 30
Mississippi	Safe Wicker (R)
Missouri	McCaskill (D) by 6.25
Montana	Rehberg (R) by 1.13*
Nebraska	Fischer (R) by 13*
Nevada	Heller (R) by 5.14
New Jersey	Menendez (D) by 18
New Mexico	Heinrich (D) by 9.67
New York	Gillibrand (D) by 43
North Dakota	Berg (R) by 5*
Ohio	Brown (D) by 6.14
Pennsylvania	Casey (D) by 5.14
Rhode Island	Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Tennessee	Safe Corker (R)
Texas	Cruz (R) by 21.5
Utah	Safe Hatch (R)
Vermont	Safe Sanders (I)
Virginia	Kaine (D) by 1.57
Washington	Cantwell (D) by 16.5
West Virginia	Manchin (D) by 39
Wisconsin	Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Wyoming	Safe Barrasso (R)
Total Senators	51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.

District	Result
AZ-01	Paton (R) by 1.88
AZ-02	Barber (D) by 5.63
AZ-09	Sinema (D) by 2.56
CA-03	Garamendi (D) by 15
CA-07	Bera (D) by 1.25
CA-09	McNerney (D) by 1.25
CA-10	Denham (R) by 1.13
CA-24	Capps (D) by 2.5
CA-26	Brownley (D) by 0.5
CA-36	Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
CA-41	Takano (D) by 6.25
CA-47	Lowenthal (D) by 15
CA-52	Peters (D) by 0.31
CO-03	Tipton (R) by 5
CO-06	Coffman (R) by 4.38
CO-07	Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
CT-05	Esty (D) by 3.13
FL-02	Southerland (R) by 6.25
FL-10	Webster (R) by 5
FL-16	Buchanan (R) by 10
FL-18	West (R) by 4.59
FL-22	Frankel (D) by 3.89
FL-26	Rivera (R) by 2
GA-12	Barrow (D) by 4.25
IL-08	Duckworth (D) by 8.75
IL-10	Dold (R) by 1.88
IL-11	Foster (D) by 2.81
IL-12	Enyart (D) by 4.94
IL-13	Gill (D) by 0.63
IL-17	Bustos (D) by 0.63
IN-02	Walorski (R) by 12.5
IN-08	Bucshon (R) by 10
IA-01	Braley (D) by 15
IA-02	Loebsack (D) by 10
IA-03	Latham (R) by 3.75
IA-04	King (R) by 3.44
KY-06	Chandler (D) by 5.19
MD-06	Delaney (D) by 5.5
MA-06	Tisei (R) by 5.5
MI-01	McDowell (D) by 1.31
MI-03	Amash (R) by 11.25
MI-11	Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
MN-02	Kline (R) by 15
MN-06	Bachmann (R) by 6.25
MN-08	Nolan (D) by 2.56
MT-AL	Daines (R) by 8.67
NV-03	Heck (R) by 9
NV-04	Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
NH-01	Guinta (R) by 5.31
NH-02	Kuster (D) by 4.85
NJ-03	Runyan (R) by 10.63
NY-01	Bishop (D) by 8.69
NY-11	Grimm (R) by 13.38
NY-18	Hayworth (R) by 4.75
NY-19	Gibson (R) by 3.75
NY-21	Owens (D) by 2.06
NY-24	Maffei (D) by 1.56
NY-25	Slaughter (D) by 9.38
NY-27	Collins (R) by 2.06
NC-07	Rouzer (R) by 0.63
NC-08	Hudson (R) by 10
NC-11	Meadows (R) by 12.5
ND-AL	Cramer (R) by 12.25
OH-06	Johnson (R) by 4.38
OH-16	Renacci (R) by 1.88
OK-02	Mullin (R) by 11.63
PA-06	Gerlach (R) by 15
PA-08	Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
PA-12	Critz (D) by 1.88
RI-01	Cicilline (D) by 2.83
SD-AL	Noem (R) by 12
TN-04	DesJarlais (R) by 5
TX-14	Weber (R) by 6.25
TX-23	Gallego (D) by 1
UT-04	Love (R) by 8.19
VA-02	Regel (R) by 10
WA-01	DelBene (D) by 5.25
WV-03	Rahall (D) by 12.5
WI-07	Duffy (R) by 6.25
WI-08	Ribble (R) by 15
Total Representatives	239 Republicans, 196 Democrats

Now onto my final California predictions:

U.S. House

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	R+2.7	D+2.8	R+6.3	R+3.0	R+2.3
CA-07	R+8.0	R+0.9	R+9	R+4.1	R+5.5
CA-09	R+1.4	D+4.3	R+3.8	R+2.2	R+0.8
CA-10	R+8.3	R+3.8	R+12.3	R+9.6	R+8.6
CA-24	R+6.4	D+4.3	R+6	R+6.5	R+3.7
CA-26	R+5.6	D+4.0	R+6.3	R+7.3	R+3.8
CA-36	R+8.9	R+2.1	R+10.2	R+10.2	R+7.9
CA-41	R+5.7	D+5.9	R+1.6	R+0.3	R+0.4
CA-47	R+0.4	D+6.3	R+0.3	R+1.5	D+0.7
CA-52	R+7.6	D+2.5	R+9.2	R+11.0	R+6.3

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
SD-05	R+13.2	D+0.6	R+8.8	R+6.0	R+6.9
SD-19	R+0.8	D+7.9	R+2.2	R+3.4	D+0.4
SD-27	R+3.8	D+4.7	R+5.7	R+7.2	R+3.0
SD-31	R+8.0	D+3.8	R+5.4	R+4.0	R+3.4
SD-39	R+2.8	D+8.6	R+2.0	R+3.8	R+0.0

State Assembly

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
AD-08	R+5.9	EVEN	R+7.9	R+3.0	R+4.2
AD-16	R+4.1	D+8.3	R+2.8	R+3.9	R+0.6
AD-21	R+2.6	D+2.2	R+8.9	R+5.7	R+3.8
AD-32	D+3.2	D+0.3	R+9.6	R+11.1	R+4.3
AD-40	R+8.5	D+0.2	R+8.4	R+6.3	R+5.8
AD-44	R+8.0	D+2.5	R+8.2	R+9.5	R+5.8
AD-60	R+12.5	R+1.1	R+10.7	R+9.2	R+8.4
AD-61	R+4.3	D+8.7	R+0.1	D+1.1	D+1.4
AD-65	R+8.8	R+1.9	R+10.6	R+11.2	R+8.1
AD-66	R+5.1	D+2.8	R+6.4	R+7.5	R+4.1
AD-78	D+0.2	D+12.0	D+3.4	D+1.4	D+4.3

Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California’s Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP

(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP

(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP

(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77