All posts by cali_girl_in_texas

Comparison of my 2012 Predictions vs. Results (plus a look ahead to 2014)

Here is the comparison of my 2012 predictions against the results. I know that not all the results have been finalized, but it doesn’t seem likely that any result will change at this point.

Most of my predictions were really close, though there were some surprising results where my prediction was way off, and some of the safe races had no polls at all, including some states with presidential polls (ie. Alaska).

State My Prediction Actual Result
Alabama
Romney by 19.23
Romney by 22.24
Alaska
Romney by 20.43
Romney by 13.95
Arizona
Romney by 6.84
Romney by 9.09
Arkansas
Romney by 22.87
Romney by 23.88
California
Obama by 19.92
Obama by 21.76
Colorado
Obama by 2.59
Obama by 4.98
Connecticut
Obama by 15.74
Obama by 17.58
Delaware
Obama by 26.09
Obama by 18.63
District of Columbia
Obama by 87.03
Obama by 84.01
Florida
Romney by 0.26
Obama by 0.86
Georgia
Romney by 6.71
Romney by 7.82
Hawaii
Obama by 36.69
Obama by 42.7
Idaho
Romney by 24.19
Romney by 31.87
Illinois
Obama by 18.81
Obama by 16.69
Indiana
Romney by 5.43
Romney by 10.59
Iowa
Obama by 2.79
Obama by 5.8
Kansas
Romney by 13.81
Romney by 22.26
Kentucky
Romney by 14.55
Romney by 22.7
Louisiana
Romney by 17.52
Romney by 17.2
Maine
Obama by 15.29
Obama by 15.1
Maryland
Obama by 22.39
Obama by 25.55
Massachusetts
Obama by 21.84
Obama by 23.12
Michigan
Obama by 5.18
Obama by 9.5
Minnesota
Obama by 8.34
Obama by 7.69
Mississippi
Romney by 12.06
Romney by 12.04
Missouri
Romney by 8.3
Romney by 9.62
Montana
Romney by 5.11
Romney by 13.66
Nebraska
Romney by 13.41
Romney by 22.36
Nevada
Obama by 3.64
Obama by 6.57
New Hampshire
Obama by 3.01
Obama by 5.56
New Jersey
Obama by 14.33
Obama by 16.9
New Mexico
Obama by 11.66
Obama by 9.88
New York
Obama by 26.87
Obama by 26.64
North Carolina
Romney by 0.46
Romney by 2.07
North Dakota
Romney by 19.11
Romney by 19.62
Ohio
Obama by 2.96
Obama by 2
Oklahoma
Romney by 29.59
Romney by 33.54
Oregon
Obama by 9.78
Obama by 12.14
Pennsylvania
Obama by 6.09
Obama by 5.02
Rhode Island
Obama by 22.98
Obama by 27.42
South Carolina
Romney by 7.87
Romney by 10.45
South Dakota
Romney by 6.65
Romney by 18.02
Tennessee
Romney by 13.95
Romney by 19.41
Texas
Romney by 14.9
Romney by 15.83
Utah
Romney by 33.45
Romney by 47.9
Vermont
Obama by 37.56
Obama by 35.6
Virginia
Obama by 2.05
Obama by 3.73
Washington
Obama by 12.05
Obama by 14.47
West Virginia
Romney by 12.99
Romney by 26.86
Wisconsin
Obama by 5.8
Obama by 6.71
Wyoming
Romney by 31.23
Romney by 40.82

2012 Governor My Prediction Actual Result
Delaware
Safe Markell (D)
Markell (D) by 40.75
Indiana
Pence (R) by 7.87
Pence (R) by 3.13
Missouri
Nixon (D) by 13
Nixon (D) by 12.06
Montana
Daines (R) by 0.5
Bullock (D) by 3.32
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) by 3
Hassan (D) by 12.09
North Carolina
McCrory (R) by 14.25
McCrory (R) by 11.49
North Dakota
Dalrymple (R) by 35
Dalrymple (R) by 28.79
Utah
Safe Herbert (R)
Herbert (R) by 40.62
Vermont
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Shumlin (D) by 17.38
Washington
Inslee (D) by 0.5
Inslee (D) by 2.26
West Virginia
Tomblin (D) by 21
Tomblin (D) by 4.75

2012 Senate My Prediction Actual Result
Arizona
Carmona (D) by 0.5
Flake (R) by 4.81
California
Feinstein (D) by 19
Feinstein (D) by 22.78
Connecticut
Murphy (D) by 4.67
Murphy (D) by 12.2
Delaware
Safe Carper (D)
Carper (D) by 37.46
Florida
Nelson (D) by 7.43
Nelson (D) by 12.83
Hawaii
Hirono (D) by 18.5
Hirono (D) by 15.2
Indiana
Donnelly (D) by 3
Donnelly (D) by 5.16
Maine
King (I) by 18
King (I) by 12.18
Maryland
Cardin (D) by 26.09
Cardin (D) by 28.67
Massachusetts
Warren (D) by 4.67
Warren (D) by 7.32
Michigan
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Stabenow (D) by 20.82
Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) by 30
Klobuchar (D) by 34.62
Mississippi
Safe Wicker (R)
Wicker (R) by 16.99
Missouri
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
McCaskill (D) by 15.52
Montana
Rehberg (R) by 1.13
Tester (D) by 3.5
Nebraska
Fischer (R) by 13
Fischer (R) by 16.34
Nevada
Heller (R) by 5.14
Heller (R) by 1.22
New Jersey
Menendez (D) by 18
Menendez (D) by 18.43
New Mexico
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
Heinrich (D) by 5.49
New York
Gillibrand (D) by 43
Gillibrand (D) by 45.43
North Dakota
Berg (R) by 5
Heitkamp (D) by 0.94
Ohio
Brown (D) by 6.14
Brown (D) by 5.31
Pennsylvania
Casey (D) by 5.14
Casey (D) by 9.01
Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Whitehouse (D) by 29.8
Tennessee
Safe Corker (R)
Corker (R) by 34.51
Texas
Cruz (R) by 21.5
Cruz (R) by 16.18
Utah
Safe Hatch (R)
Hatch (R) by 35.02
Vermont
Safe Sanders (I)
Sanders (I) by 44.31
Virginia
Kaine (D) by 1.57
Kaine (D) by 5.14
Washington
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
Cantwell (D) by 19.28
West Virginia
Manchin (D) by 39
Manchin (D) by 22.98
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Baldwin (D) by 5.57
Wyoming
Safe Barrasso (R)
Barrasso (R) by 54.07

2012 U.S. House My Prediction Actual Result
AZ-01
Paton (R) by 1.88
Kirkpatrick (D) by 3.7
AZ-02
Barber (D) by 5.63
Barber (D) by ?
AZ-09
Sinema (D) by 2.56
Sinema (D) by 3.7
CA-03
Garamendi (D) by 15
Garamendi (D) by 7.4
CA-07
Bera (D) by 1.25
Bera (D) by 2.2
CA-09
McNerney (D) by 1.25
McNerney (D) by 8.2
CA-10
Denham (R) by 1.13
Denham (R) by 7.6
CA-24
Capps (D) by 2.5
Capps (D) by 9.6
CA-26
Brownley (D) by 0.5
Brownley (D) by 3.4
CA-36
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
Ruiz (D) by 2.8
CA-41
Takano (D) by 6.25
Takano (D) by 12.8
CA-47
Lowenthal (D) by 15
Lowenthal (D) by 10.2
CA-52
Peters (D) by 0.31
Peters (D) by 0.4
CO-03
Tipton (R) by 5
Tipton (R) by 12.4
CO-06
Coffman (R) by 4.38
Coffman (R) by 3.6
CO-07
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
Perlmutter (D) by 12.1
CT-05
Esty (D) by 3.13
Esty (D) by 3
FL-02
Southerland (R) by 6.25
Southerland (R) by 5.4
FL-10
Webster (R) by 5
Webster (R) by 3.6
FL-16
Buchanan (R) by 10
Buchanan (R) by 7.2
FL-18
West (R) by 4.59
Murphy (D) by 0.8
FL-22
Frankel (D) by 3.89
Frankel (D) by 9.2
FL-26
Rivera (R) by 2
Garcia (D) by 10.6
GA-12
Barrow (D) by 4.25
Barrow (D) by 7.4
IL-08
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
Duckworth (D) by 9.4
IL-10
Dold (R) by 1.88
Schneider (D) by 1
IL-11
Foster (D) by 2.81
Foster (D) by 16.2
IL-12
Enyart (D) by 4.94
Enyart (D) by 8.6
IL-13
Gill (D) by 0.63
Davis (R) by 0.4
IL-17
Bustos (D) by 0.63
Bustos (D) by 6.6
IN-02
Walorski (R) by 12.5
Walorski (R) by 1.4
IN-08
Bucshon (R) by 10
Bucshon (R) by 10.3
IA-01
Braley (D) by 15
Braley (D) by 15.2
IA-02
Loebsack (D) by 10
Loebsack (D) by 12.9
IA-03
Latham (R) by 3.75
Latham (R) by 8.7
IA-04
King (R) by 3.44
King (R) by 8.6
KY-06
Chandler (D) by 5.19
Barr (R) by 3.9
MD-06
Delaney (D) by 5.5
Delaney (D) by 20.5
MA-06
Tisei (R) by 5.5
Tierney (D) by 1
MI-01
McDowell (D) by 1.31
Benishek (R) by 0.7
MI-03
Amash (R) by 11.25
Amash (R) by 8.6
MI-11
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
Bentivolio (R) by 6.3
MN-02
Kline (R) by 15
Kline (R) by 8.2
MN-06
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
Bachmann (R) by 1.2
MN-08
Nolan (D) by 2.56
Nolan (D) by 9
MT-AL
Daines (R) by 8.67
Daines (R) by 10.3
NV-03
Heck (R) by 9
Heck (R) by 14.2
NV-04
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
Horsford (D) by 7.9
NH-01
Guinta (R) by 5.31
Shea-Porter (D) by 3.7
NH-02
Kuster (D) by 4.85
Kuster (D) by 5.1
NJ-03
Runyan (R) by 10.63
Runyan (R) by 9
NY-01
Bishop (D) by 8.69
Bishop (D) by 4.4
NY-11
Grimm (R) by 13.38
Grimm (R) by 6.6
NY-18
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
Maloney (D) by 3.4
NY-19
Gibson (R) by 3.75
Gibson (R) by 6.8
NY-21
Owens (D) by 2.06
Owens (D) by 2
NY-24
Maffei (D) by 1.56
Maffei (D) by 3.6
NY-25
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
Slaughter (D) by 14.4
NY-27
Collins (R) by 2.06
Collins (R) by 1.4
NC-07
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
McIntyre (D) by 0.2
NC-08
Hudson (R) by 10
Hudson (R) by 8.2
NC-11
Meadows (R) by 12.5
Meadows (R) by 14.8
ND-AL
Cramer (R) by 12.25
Cramer (R) by 13.2
OH-06
Johnson (R) by 4.38
Johnson (R) by 6.6
OH-16
Renacci (R) by 1.88
Renacci (R) by 4.4
OK-02
Mullin (R) by 11.63
Mullin (R) by 19.1
PA-06
Gerlach (R) by 15
Gerlach (R) by 14.2
PA-08
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
Fitzpatrick (R) by 13.3
PA-12
Critz (D) by 1.88
Rothfus (R) by 3
RI-01
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
Cicilline (D) by 10.9
SD-AL
Noem (R) by 12
Noem (R) by 15
TN-04
DesJarlais (R) by 5
DesJarlais (R) by 11.6
TX-14
Weber (R) by 6.25
Weber (R) by 8.9
TX-23
Gallego (D) by 1
Gallego (D) by 4.8
UT-04
Love (R) by 8.19
Matheson (D) by 1.2
VA-02
Rigell (R) by 10
Rigell (R) by 7.6
WA-01
DelBene (D) by 5.25
DelBene (D) by 7.2
WV-03
Rahall (D) by 12.5
Rahall (D) by 7.8
WI-07
Duffy (R) by 6.25
Duffy (R) by 12.2
WI-08
Ribble (R) by 15
Ribble (R) by 11.8

There were a few races that turned out to be close that few had considered vulnerable (though I think CA-33 is questionable):

Close races not rated: Result
CA-16
Costa (D) by 9
CA-33
Waxman (D) by 7.4
HI-01
Hanabusa (D) by 9.2
NE-02
Terry (R) by 2.4
NC-09
Pittenger (R) by 6.1

Looking ahead to 2014, the districts I consider vulnerable are those in which the margin was under 10%, though some of them could have been close because of new constituents following redistricting. Of course circumstances can (and will) change, and districts will be added or removed from this list between now and November 4, 2014.

Here are the Senate seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

State Incumbent
Alaska
Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas
Mark Pryor (D) – possibly
Colorado
Mark Udall (D) – depends on the challenger
Louisiana
Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts
John Kerry (D) – if appointed Secretary of State
Michigan
Carl Levin (D) – if he retires (he will be 80 in 2014) and depending on the Republican nominee
Minnesota
Al Franken (D)
Montana
Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey
Frank Lautenberg (D)
North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D) – depends on the challenger
South Dakota
Tim Johnson (D)
West Virginia
Jay Rockefeller (D) – depends on the challenger

Here are the governor seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

State Incumbent
Arizona
OPEN (R)
Arkansas
OPEN (D)
Colorado
John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut
Dan Malloy (D)
Florida
Rick Scott (R)
Illinois
Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa
Terry Branstad (R)
Maine
Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts
OPEN (D)
Minnesota
Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada
Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D)
Ohio
John Kasich (R)
Oregon
John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania
Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island
Lincoln Chafee (I)
Wisconsin
Scott Walker (R)

My Final 2012 Predictions, National-Level and California-Level

I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.

2012 President

State Result D Electoral Votes R Electoral Votes
Alabama
Romney by 19.23
9
Alaska
Romney by 20.43
3
Arizona
Romney by 6.84
11
Arkansas
Romney by 22.87
6
California
Obama by 19.92
55
Colorado
Obama by 2.59
9
Connecticut
Obama by 15.74
7
Delaware
Obama by 26.09
3
District of Columbia
Obama by 87.03
3
Florida
Romney by 0.26*
29
Georgia
Romney by 6.71
16
Hawaii
Obama by 36.69
4
Idaho
Romney by 24.19
4
Illinois
Obama by 18.81
20
Indiana
Romney by 5.43*
11
Iowa
Obama by 2.79
6
Kansas
Romney by 13.81
6
Kentucky
Romney by 14.55
8
Louisiana
Romney by 17.52
8
Maine
Obama by 15.29
4
Maryland
Obama by 22.39
10
Massachusetts
Obama by 21.84
11
Michigan
Obama by 5.18
16
Minnesota
Obama by 8.34
10
Mississippi
Romney by 12.06
6
Missouri
Romney by 8.3
10
Montana
Romney by 5.11
3
Nebraksa
Romney by 13.41
5
Nevada
Obama by 3.64
6
New Hampshire
Obama by 3.01
4
New Jersey
Obama by 14.33
14
New Mexico
Obama by 11.66
5
New York
Obama by 26.87
29
North Carolina
Romney by 0.46*
15
North Dakota
Romney by 19.11
3
Ohio
Obama by 2.96
18
Oklahoma
Romney by 29.59
7
Oregon
Obama by 9.78
7
Pennsylvania
Obama by 6.09
20
Rhode Island
Obama by 22.98
4
South Carolina
Romney by 7.87
9
South Dakota
Romney by 6.65
3
Tennessee
Romney by 13.95
11
Texas
Romney by 14.9
38
Utah
Romney by 33.45
6
Vermont
Obama by 37.56
3
Virginia
Obama by 2.05
13
Washington
Obama by 12.05
12
West Virginia
Romney by 12.99
5
Wisconsin
Obama by 5.8
10
Wyoming
Romney by 31.23
3
Total 303 235

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.

2012 Governor

State
Result
Delaware
Safe Markell (D)
Indiana
Pence (D) by 7.87
Missouri
Nixon (D) by 13
Montana
Daines (R) by 0.5*
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) by 3
North Carolina
McCrory (R) by 14.25*
North Dakota
Dalrymple (R) by 35
Utah
Safe Herbert (R)
Vermont
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Washington
Inslee (D) by 0.5
West Virginia
Tomblin (D) by 21
Total Governors 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent

Now for the Senate races. I don’t know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.

2012 Senate

State Result
Arizona
Carmona (D) by 0.5*
California
Feinstein (D) by 19
Connecticut
Murphy (D) by 4.67
Delaware
Safe Carper (D)
Florida
Nelson (D) by 7.43
Hawaii
Hirono (D) by 18.5
Indiana
Donnelly (D) by 3*
Maine
King (I) by 18*
Maryland
Cardin (D) by 26.09
Massachusetts
Warren (D) by 4.67*
Michigan
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) by 30
Mississippi
Safe Wicker (R)
Missouri
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
Montana
Rehberg (R) by 1.13*
Nebraska
Fischer (R) by 13*
Nevada
Heller (R) by 5.14
New Jersey
Menendez (D) by 18
New Mexico
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
New York
Gillibrand (D) by 43
North Dakota
Berg (R) by 5*
Ohio
Brown (D) by 6.14
Pennsylvania
Casey (D) by 5.14
Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Tennessee
Safe Corker (R)
Texas
Cruz (R) by 21.5
Utah
Safe Hatch (R)
Vermont
Safe Sanders (I)
Virginia
Kaine (D) by 1.57
Washington
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
West Virginia
Manchin (D) by 39
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Wyoming
Safe Barrasso (R)
Total Senators 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.

2012 U.S. House

District Result
AZ-01
Paton (R) by 1.88
AZ-02
Barber (D) by 5.63
AZ-09
Sinema (D) by 2.56
CA-03
Garamendi (D) by 15
CA-07
Bera (D) by 1.25
CA-09
McNerney (D) by 1.25
CA-10
Denham (R) by 1.13
CA-24
Capps (D) by 2.5
CA-26
Brownley (D) by 0.5
CA-36
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
CA-41
Takano (D) by 6.25
CA-47
Lowenthal (D) by 15
CA-52
Peters (D) by 0.31
CO-03
Tipton (R) by 5
CO-06
Coffman (R) by 4.38
CO-07
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
CT-05
Esty (D) by 3.13
FL-02
Southerland (R) by 6.25
FL-10
Webster (R) by 5
FL-16
Buchanan (R) by 10
FL-18
West (R) by 4.59
FL-22
Frankel (D) by 3.89
FL-26
Rivera (R) by 2
GA-12
Barrow (D) by 4.25
IL-08
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
IL-10
Dold (R) by 1.88
IL-11
Foster (D) by 2.81
IL-12
Enyart (D) by 4.94
IL-13
Gill (D) by 0.63
IL-17
Bustos (D) by 0.63
IN-02
Walorski (R) by 12.5
IN-08
Bucshon (R) by 10
IA-01
Braley (D) by 15
IA-02
Loebsack (D) by 10
IA-03
Latham (R) by 3.75
IA-04
King (R) by 3.44
KY-06
Chandler (D) by 5.19
MD-06
Delaney (D) by 5.5
MA-06
Tisei (R) by 5.5
MI-01
McDowell (D) by 1.31
MI-03
Amash (R) by 11.25
MI-11
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
MN-02
Kline (R) by 15
MN-06
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
MN-08
Nolan (D) by 2.56
MT-AL
Daines (R) by 8.67
NV-03
Heck (R) by 9
NV-04
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
NH-01
Guinta (R) by 5.31
NH-02
Kuster (D) by 4.85
NJ-03
Runyan (R) by 10.63
NY-01
Bishop (D) by 8.69
NY-11
Grimm (R) by 13.38
NY-18
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
NY-19
Gibson (R) by 3.75
NY-21
Owens (D) by 2.06
NY-24
Maffei (D) by 1.56
NY-25
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
NY-27
Collins (R) by 2.06
NC-07
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
NC-08
Hudson (R) by 10
NC-11
Meadows (R) by 12.5
ND-AL
Cramer (R) by 12.25
OH-06
Johnson (R) by 4.38
OH-16
Renacci (R) by 1.88
OK-02
Mullin (R) by 11.63
PA-06
Gerlach (R) by 15
PA-08
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
PA-12
Critz (D) by 1.88
RI-01
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
SD-AL
Noem (R) by 12
TN-04
DesJarlais (R) by 5
TX-14
Weber (R) by 6.25
TX-23
Gallego (D) by 1
UT-04
Love (R) by 8.19
VA-02
Regel (R) by 10
WA-01
DelBene (D) by 5.25
WV-03
Rahall (D) by 12.5
WI-07
Duffy (R) by 6.25
WI-08
Ribble (R) by 15
Total Representatives 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats

Now onto my final California predictions:

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+2.7
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.3
CA-07
R+8.0
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.5
CA-09
R+1.4
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+0.8
CA-10
R+8.3
R+3.8
R+12.3
R+9.6
R+8.6
CA-24
R+6.4
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.7
CA-26
R+5.6
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.8
CA-36
R+8.9
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+7.9
CA-41
R+5.7
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
R+0.4
CA-47
R+0.4
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+0.7
CA-52
R+7.6
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+6.3

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+13.2
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+6.9
SD-19
R+0.8
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.4
SD-27
R+3.8
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.0
SD-31
R+8.0
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.4
SD-39
R+2.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.0

State Assembly

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+5.9
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.2
AD-16
R+4.1
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.6
AD-21
R+2.6
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.8
AD-32
D+3.2
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.3
AD-40
R+8.5
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.8
AD-44
R+8.0
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.8
AD-60
R+12.5
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+8.4
AD-61
R+4.3
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.4
AD-65
R+8.8
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.1
AD-66
R+5.1
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.1
AD-78
D+0.2
D+12.0
D+3.4
D+1.4
D+4.3

Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California’s Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP

(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP

(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP

(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Convention Edition

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+3.4
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.5
CA-07
R+8.4
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.6
CA-09
R+2.8
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+1.1
CA-10
R+8.5
R+3.8
R+12.3
R+9.6
R+8.6
CA-16
D+0.3
D+5.2
R+7.2
R+2.6
R+1.1
CA-21
R+0.2
R+0.7
R+11.1
R+4.8
R+4.2
CA-24
R+7.3
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.9
CA-26
R+6.0
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.9
CA-36
R+9.7
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+8.1
CA-41
R+6.9
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
R+0.7
CA-47
R+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+0.6
CA-52
R+11.2
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+7.2

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+8.0
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+7.0
SD-19
R+1.6
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.2
SD-27
R+5.4
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.4
SD-31
R+6.2
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.7
SD-39
R+3.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.3

State Assembly

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+6.3
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.3
AD-16
R+4.9
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.8
AD-21
R+2.4
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.7
AD-32
D+3.4
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.3
AD-40
R+9.2
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.9
AD-44
R+8.4
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.9
AD-60
R+13.2
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+8.6
AD-61
R+5.6
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.0
AD-65
R+9.6
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.3
AD-66
R+5.9
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.3
AD-78
D+0.8
D+12.0
D+3.4
D+1.4
D+4.4

Analysis of California State Assembly 2012 races

Here is my analysis of the Assembly races. I will start with listing by rating.

GUARANTEED DEM – 15

SAFE DEM – 32

LEAN DEM – 2

TOSS-UP – 3

LEAN GOP – 1

LIKELY GOP – 2

SAFE GOP – 19

GUARANTEED GOP – 6

The Democrats’ best-case scenario, winning all the seats that lean their way and the toss-ups, is status-quo 52-28, while the Republicans’ best-case scenario is 49-31.

Now, on to the races.

California’s 1st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner (Redding)

November ballot: Rick Bosetti (R) vs. Brian Dahle (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37

President 2008: McCain 53-41

California’s 2nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: North Coast (Santa Rosa)

November ballot: Wesley Chesbro (D-inc) vs. Tom Lynch (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 3rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Northern Sacramento Valley (Chico, Paradise, Oroville)

November ballot: Dan Logue (R-inc) vs. Charles Rouse (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 4th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western Sacramento Valley (Davis, Napa)

November ballot: Mariko Yamada (D-inc) vs. John Munn (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 57-36

President 2008: Obama 65-32

California’s 5th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern San Joaquin Valley, Sierras

November ballot: Frank Bigelow (R) vs. Rico Oller (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 6th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Roseville, Folsom

November ballot: Beth Gaines (R-inc) vs. Regy Bronner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-37

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 7th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento

November ballot: Roger Dickinson (D-inc) vs. Jonathan Zachariou (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-33

Governor 2010: Brown 65-29

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 8th State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Citrus Heights, Rancho Cordova

November ballot: Ken Cooley (D) vs. Peter Tateishi (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-43

Governor 2010: Brown 50-43

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: This is probably the dictionary definition of “swing district”.

California’s 9th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Lodi, Elk Grove, part of Sacramento

November ballot: Richard Pan (D-inc) vs. Tony Amador (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 58-36

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 10th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Marin County, southern Sonoma County

November ballot: Michael Allen (D-inc) vs. Marc Levine (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27

Governor 2010: Brown 68-27

President 2008: Obama 76-21

California’s 11th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville

November ballot: Jim Frazier (D) vs. Mike Hudson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 12th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Eastern San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties

November ballot: Kristin Olsen (R-inc) vs. Christopher Mateo (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-34

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 13th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Stockton, Tracy

November ballot: Susan Talamantes Eggman (D) vs. K. “Jeffrey” Jafri (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40

Governor 2010: Brown 55-38

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 14th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Concord, Martinez, Vallejo

November ballot: Susan Bonilla (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 69-29

California’s 15th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Berkeley, Richmond

November ballot: Nancy Skinner (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 84-12

Governor 2010: Brown 84-12

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 16th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Livermore, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

November ballot: Joan Buchanan (D-inc) vs. Al Phillips (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-45

Governor 2010: Brown 51-45

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 17th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Eastern San Francisco

November ballot: Tom Ammiano (D-inc) vs. Jason P. Clark (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 18th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Oakland

November ballot: Rob Bonta (D) vs. Abel Guillen (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 81-13

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 19th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western San Francisco, Daly City

November ballot: Michael Breyer (D) vs. Phil Ting (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 70-21

Governor 2010: Brown 72-23

President 2008: Obama 78-19

California’s 20th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fremont, Hayward

November ballot: Bill Quirk (D) vs. Jennifer Ong (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-24

California’s 21st State Assembly DistrictLEAN DEM

Geography: Merced County, western Stanislaus County (Ceres, Modesto, Patterson)

November ballot: Adam Gray (D) vs. Jack Mobley (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 47-45

President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: The statewide numbers show that this is a swingy district, and while the Republican got almost 45%, the remaining 55% was split among 4 Democrats.

California’s 22nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Mateo County (San Mateo, Redwood City)

November ballot: Mark Gilham (R) vs. Kevin Mullin (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 64-30

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 72-25

California’s 23rd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Fresno, Clovis

November ballot: Jim Patterson (R) vs. Bob Whalen (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-36

President 2008: McCain 53-45

California’s 24th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Richard Gordon (D-inc) vs. Chengzhi “George” Yang (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-28

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 25th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Newark, Milpitas, Santa Clara

November ballot: Bob Wieckowski (D-inc) vs. Arlyne Diamond (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29

Governor 2010: Brown 61-33

President 2008: Obama 68-28

California’s 26th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Inyo County, Visalia, rural Kern County

November ballot: Connie Conway (R-inc) vs. Jonathan Louis Sosa (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 57-41

California’s 27th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Jose

November ballot: Nora Campos (D-inc) vs. Roger F. Lasson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 64-29

President 2008: Obama 70-26

California’s 28th State Assembly DistrictLEAN DEM (but no chance of going GOP at all)

Geography: Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga

November ballot: Paul Fong (D-inc) vs. Chad Walsh (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-34

Governor 2010: Brown 57-38

President 2008: Obama 67-30

Quite unusual, though this is not the first time a “minor party” (in this case, none at all) candidate has a fighting chance against a major-party incumbent. Fong only got 54% in June, so this may be the only race in which top-two potentially worked to a non-major party candidate’s benefit.

California’s 29th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Cruz, Monterey

November ballot: Mark Stone (D) vs. Tom Walsh (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 71-26

California’s 30th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Benito, Salinas, Morgan Hill

November ballot: Luis Alejo (D-inc) vs. Rob Bernosky (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 58-35

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 31st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western Fresno County

November ballot: Henry Perea (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 32nd State Assembly DistrictLIKELY GOP

Geography: Kings County, Bakersfield, Delano

November ballot: Rudy Salas (D) vs. Pedro Rios (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-41

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: I don’t see how Salas can overcome a 60-40 deficit, even if Democratic turnout was reduced in June.

California’s 33rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Most of San Bernardino County (Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow)

November ballot: Tim Donnelly (R-inc) vs. John Coffey (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-35

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 34th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Bakersfield

November ballot: Shannon Grove (R-inc) vs. Mari Goodman (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 66-25

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 63-34

California’s 35th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria

November ballot: Katcho Achadjian (R-inc) vs. Gerry Manata

Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-40

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 36th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Steve Fox (D) vs. Ron Smith (R)

November ballot: Lancaster, Palmdale

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-40

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 37th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard

November ballot: Das Williams (D-inc) vs. Rob Walter (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 52-41

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 38th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Santa Clarita, Simi Valley

November ballot: Edward Headington (D) vs. Scott Wilk (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 54-39

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 39th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Richard Alarcon (D-inc) vs. Raul Bocanegra (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-27

Governor 2010: Brown 64-27

President 2008: Obama 71-25

California’s 40th State Assembly DistrictLEAN GOP

Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands

November ballot: Mike Morrell (R-inc) vs. Russ Warner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-42

Governor 2010: Brown 46-45

President 2008: Obama 52-44

Description: This district looks like Morrell’s old district, except it trades a Republican city for a Democratic one: Upland for San Bernardino. This district is also 47% minority-majority in the citizen voting age population, so June turnout was probably lower than what November’s might be.

California’s 41st State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Gabriel Valley (Pasadena, Upland)

November ballot: Chris Holden (D) vs. Donna Lowe (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-42

Governor 2010: Brown 53-40

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 42nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Hemet, Palm Desert, Yucca Valley

November ballot: Brian Nestande (R-inc) vs. Anthony Orozco (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 43rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Burbank, Glendale

November ballot: Mike Gatto (D-inc) vs. Greg Krikorian (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-33

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 44th State Assembly DistrictLIKELY GOP

Geography: Oxnard, Thousand Oaks

November ballot: Jeff Gorell (R-inc) vs. Eileen MacEnery (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-44

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44

President 2008: Obama 55-43

Description: The addition of Oxnard shifted this district from a small Republican registration advantage to a slight Democratic registration. Gorell is moderate and has received the teachers’ union endorsement, so he shouldn’t have much trouble holding this district.

California’s 45th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Bob Blumenfield (D-inc) vs. Chris Kolski (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-38

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 46th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Adrin Nazarian (D) vs. Jay Stern (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 47th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino

November ballot: Joe Baca, Jr. (D) vs. Cheryl R. Brown (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 61-29

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 48th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Baldwin Park, West Covina, Glendora

November ballot: Roger Hernandez (D-inc) vs. Joe M. Gardner (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 53-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 49th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Alhambra, El Monte, Monterey Park*

November ballot: Ed Chau (D) vs. Matthew Lin (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 55-37

President 2008: Obama 60-36

*This is the only majority-Asian district in all of the California U.S. House, Senate, and Assembly districts in population and voting-age population (VAP), and almost majority-Asian citizen VAP. Have there been any other majority-Asian districts outside of Hawaii?

California’s 50th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: West Side L.A. (Beverly Hills, Malibu, Santa Monica, West Hollywood)

November ballot: Betsy Butler (D-inc) vs. Richard Bloom (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-28

Governor 2010: Brown 66-29

President 2008: Obama 74-23

Description: Butler, who barely won in a Beach Cities-centric district in 2010, moved to this West Side-centric district and will face the mayor of Santa Monica. Her other option was the very swingy 66th district, so her chances are nominally better here.

California’s 51st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A.

November ballot: Jimmy Gomez (D) vs. Luis Lopez (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 77-15

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 79-17

California’s 52nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chino, Ontario, Pomona

November ballot: Norma Torres (D-inc) vs. Kenny Coble (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 63-34

California’s 53rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A., Huntington Park

November ballot: John PĆ©rez (D-inc) vs. Jose Aguilar (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 78-18

California’s 54th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Culver City

November ballot: Holly Mitchell (D-inc) vs. Brandon McCowen (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 78-16

Governor 2010: Brown 78-16

President 2008: Obama 84-14

California’s 55th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Diamond Bar, La Habra, Yorba Linda

November ballot: Curt Hagman (R-inc) vs. Gregg Fritchle (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 56th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Imperial County, Indio, Cathedral City, Blythe

November ballot: Manuel Perez (D-inc) vs. Corky Reynaga-Emett (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 57th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: La Mirada, Norwalk, Whittier

November ballot: Ian Charles Calderon (D) vs. Noel Jaimes (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-36

President 2008: Obama 60-36

California’s 58th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Cerritos

November ballot: Christina Garcia (D) vs. Patricia Kotze-Ramos (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 62-30

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 59th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Part of South Central L.A.

November ballot: Rodney Robinson (D) vs. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 86-6

Governor 2010: Brown 86-6

President 2008: Obama 90-7

California’s 60th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Corona, Riverside

November ballot: Eric Linder (R) vs. Jose Luis Perez (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-43

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 61st State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Bill Batey (R) vs. Jose Medina (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 60-36

Description: Here is another new Riverside district. I’m rating this a toss-up like its Senate and U.S. House counterparts due to the “uncharted territory” and “historic GOP strength” factors. However, Kamala Harris won here in the Attorney General race, so if one of the districts goes DEM, my money is on this one.

California’s 62nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne

November ballot: Steven Bradford (D-inc) vs. Mervin Leon Evans (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 73-20

Governor 2010: Brown 73-21

President 2008: Obama 80-17

California’s 63rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Gateway Cities (South Gate, Lakewood, Lynwood)

November ballot: Jack M. Guerrero (R) vs. Anthony Rendon (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-24

Governor 2010: Brown 67-24

President 2008: Obama 72-24

California’s 64th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Compton, Carson

November ballot: Isadore Hall (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-11

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 65th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Buena Park, Fullerton, Stanton

November ballot: Chris Norby (R-inc) vs. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 66th State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Palos Verdes, Torrance, West Carson, Beach Cities

November ballot: Craig Huey (R) vs. Al Muratsuchi (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45

Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46

President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Huey, who overperformed in a House district special election in 2011, is running in this swingy district, with Democratic-leaning West Carson, the slight-Democratic-leaning Beach Cities (Hermosa/Manhattan/Redondo), the Republican-leaning Palos Verdes Peninsula, and swingy Torrance. Republicans got 60% of the June vote, which seems high for a swingy district, so this district could go either way.

California’s 67th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Murrieta, Menifee, Lake Elsinore

November ballot: Melissa Melendez (R) vs. Phil Paule (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-34

President 2008: McCain 56-41

California’s 68th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin

November ballot: Don Wagner (R-inc) vs. Christina Avalos (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-33

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 69th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Anaheim, Santa Ana

November ballot: Tom Daly (D) vs. Joe Moreno (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34

Governor 2010: Brown 56-34

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 70th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Long Beach

November ballot: Bonnie Lowenthal (D-inc) vs. Martha Flores Gibson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-34

Governor 2010: Brown 59-34

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 71st State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: El Cajon, Santee

November ballot: Brian Jones (R-inc) vs. Patrick Hurley (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-32

President 2008: McCain 57-40

California’s 72nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Westminster

November ballot: Travis Allen (R) vs. Troy Edgar (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 73rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, San Clemente

November ballot: Diane Harkey (R-inc) vs. James Corbett (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 62-31

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 74th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach

November ballot: Allan Mansoor (R-inc) vs. Robert Rush (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 75th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Escondido, San Marcos, Temecula

November ballot: Matthew Herold (D) vs. Marie Waldron (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 76th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista

November ballot: Rocky Chavez (R) vs. Sherry Hodges (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-40

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 77th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Poway, northern San Diego

November ballot: Ruben Hernandez (D) vs. Brian Maienschein (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-39

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 78th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Diego, Coronado, Imperial Beach

November ballot: Toni Atkins (D-inc) vs. Ralph Denney (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-38

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 79th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, La Mesa, Lemon Grove

November ballot: Mary England (R) vs. Shirley Weber (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 51-40

President 2008: Obama 60-38

California’s 80th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, National City

November ballot: Ben Hueso (D-inc) vs. Derrick Roach (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 57-32

President 2008: Obama 66-32

Analysis of 2012 California State Senate Races

Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.

SD-02 (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D)

SD-04 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) – currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.

SD-06 (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)

SD-08 (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)

SD-10 (Hayward/Fremont): Open; safe DEM

SD-12 (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)

SD-14 (Fresno/Kings/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)

SD-16 (Bakersfield/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)

SD-18 (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM

SD-20 (Pomona/Ontario/Fontana): Open; safe DEM

SD-22 (West Covina/El Monte/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)

SD-24 (Downtown/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)

SD-26 (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)

SD-28 (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)

SD-30 (Culver City): Curren Price (D)

SD-32 (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM

SD-34 (Seal Beach/Garden Grove/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP

SD-36 (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP

SD-38 (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)

SD-40 (Imperial County/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)

Here are my ratings for the State Senate races. See the extended.

California’s 1st State Senate DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Folsom, South Lake Tahoe)

November ballot: Ted Gaines (R-inc) vs. Julie Griffith-Flatter (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 54-42

California’s 3rd State Senate DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)

November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 60-34

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 5th State Senate DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy), Modesto

November ballot: Bill Berryhill (R) vs. Cathleen Galgiani (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 47-46

President 2008: Obama 53-44

Description: This will be one of the Senate races to watch closely, with two Assemblymembers facing off. Berryhill won twice in an Obama-voting district, while Galgiani recently came out as a lesbian and is vocal in her support for high-speed rail. Democrats have had a better history of winning victories in districts that included Stockton though.

California’s 7th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Concord, Antioch, Livermore

November ballot: Mark DeSaulnier (D-inc) vs. Mark Meuser (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-41

Governor 2010: Brown 53-41

President 2008: Obama 62-35

California’s 9th State Senate DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland

November ballot: Loni Hancock (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 82-12

Governor 2010: Brown 83-12

President 2008: Obama 86-11

California’s 11th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Francisco, Daly City

November ballot: Mark Leno (D-inc) vs. Harmeet Dhillon (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16

Governor 2010: Brown 77-18

President 2008: Obama 82-14

California’s 13th State Senate DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 65-29

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 73-24

Description: This intraparty battle does not have much drama. Hill represents more of this district, so he has an advantage.

California’s 15th State Senate DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos)

November ballot: Jim Beall (D) vs. Joe Coto (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 59-35

President 2008: Obama 68-29

Description: This intraparty battle has a much deeper split, with Beall hailing from the richer western side and Coto the poorer eastern side. Beall being a current member of the Assembly probably has an edge.

California’s 17th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Northern Central Coast (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)

November ballot: Bill Monning (D) vs. Larry Beaman (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-28

Governor 2010: 56-38

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 19th State Senate DistrictLIKELY DEM

Geography: Southern Central Coast (Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, Oxnard)

November ballot: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) vs. Mike Stoker (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43

Governor 2010: Brown 49-43

President 2008: Obama 60-37

Description: Jackson made it out of a bruising primary. Stoker came close in a Santa Barbara-based Assembly district in 2010, but with turnout at UCSB likely to be much higher, it is unlikely he would get much closer.

California’s 21st State Senate DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Victorville

November ballot: Steve Knight (R) vs. Star Moffatt (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 51-39

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 23rd State Senate DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Inland Empire (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Hemet)

November ballot: Bill Emmerson (R-inc) vs. Melissa Ruth O’Donnell (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-40

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 25th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Glendale, Glendora, Pasadena

November ballot: Carol Liu (D-inc) vs. Gilbert Gonzales (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 60-36

California’s 27th State Senate DistrictLEAN DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley, Eastern Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley)

November ballot: Fran Pavley (D-inc) vs. Todd Zink (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-46

Governor 2010: Whitman 47.2-46.5

President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Pavley’s district became much more Ventura-centric and less Democratic. Zink won more of the June vote, so the November vote might go more to Pavley.

California’s 29th State Senate DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Fullerton

November ballot: Bob Huff (R-inc) vs. Greg Diamond (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 31st State Senate DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Richard Roth (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 45.6-45.5

Governor 2010: Brown 48.2-43.1

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the Senate version of the uncharted Riverside-centric territory with a known Republican entity.

California’s 33rd State Senate DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Long Beach, South Gate, Lynwood

November ballot: Ricardo Lara (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 69-22

Governor 2010: Brown 70-22

President 2008: 75-21

California’s 35th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Carson, San Pedro, Torrance

November ballot: Rod Wright (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Svolos

Senate 2010: Boxer 71-20

Governor 2010: Brown 72-21

President 2008: Obama 77-20

California’s 37th State Senate DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Central Orange County (Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa)

November ballot: Mimi Walters (R-inc) vs. Steve Young (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-34

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-35

President 2008: McCain 49-47

California’s 39th State Senate DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Diego, Coronado

November ballot: Marty Block (D) vs. George Plescia (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43

Governor 2010: Brown 49-44

President 2008: Obama 60-37

My predictions are 13 DEM seats, 5 GOP seats, and 2 toss-ups. The other seats are 12 DEM and 8 GOP, so the best Democrats can do is 27-13, enough for 2/3 (though it is unlikely we will get there in the Assembly; I will post that diary later), and the best Republicans can do is status-quo 25-15. (Spoiler: Interesting that the best-case Republican scenario in the Senate is status quo, while the best case Democratic scenario in the Assembly is status-quo, 52-28.)

Analysis of 2012 California U.S. House Races

Now that the primary dust is settled and I have some time, I can present my analysis of the California districts this year. With top-two, we have some more interesting races to watch. With the lack of a write-in option in the November elections, I came up with a new safer-than-safe rating, “Guaranteed”. The outcomes will not be different from the “Safe” races, but I like having them separated, because some of the “Guaranteed” races will be interesting to watch.

California’s 1st congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Chico)

November ballot: Doug LaMalfa (R) vs. Jim Reed (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37

President 2008: McCain 53-42

California’s 2nd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: North Coast north of San Francisco (Eureka, Petaluma)

November ballot: Jared Huffman (D) vs. Dan Roberts (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 62-29

Governor 2010: Brown 64-30

President 2008: Obama 71-25

California’s 3rd congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: Solano County and Southern Sacramento Valley (Davis, Fairfield, Yuba City)

November ballot: John Garamendi (D-inc) vs. Kim Vann (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45

Governor 2010: Brown 50-43

President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Garamendi underperformed the previous incumbent Ellen Tauscher in both the 2009 special and the 2010 general in the old district, which was more Democratic than this one. Colusa County Supervisor Vann is also a serious candidate, having more cash-on-hand than Garamendi ($169K – $132K), though Garamendi spent more than 3.5 times as much as Vann ($895K – $244K).

California’s 4th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Placer County, eastern Central Valley

November ballot: Tom McClintock (R-inc) vs. Jack Uppal (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-38

President 2008: McCain 54-43

California’s 5th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Napa Valley

November ballot: Mike Thompson (D-inc) vs. Randy Loftin (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-30

Governor 2010: Brown 63-31

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 6th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento

November ballot: Doris Matsui (D-inc) vs. Joseph McCray (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-32

Governor 2010: Brown 66-28

President 2008: Obama 68-29

California’s 7th congressional district: LEAN GOP

Geography: Eastern Sacramento suburbs (Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Citrus Heights)

November ballot: Dan Lungren (R-inc) vs. Ami Bera (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 49-44

President 2008: Obama 51-46

Description: This will probably be the race to watch in California’s congressional delegation. Lungren won a hard-fought race the last two cycles, and in 2010 Democrats picked up a State Assembly seat in this area, one of the few Democratic pickups that year. The district became slightly more Democratic, going from Obama by 0.5% to Obama by 5%. However, Lungren beat Bera by 12 points in June, so he has a small advantage.

California’s 8th congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Sierras and most of San Bernardino County

November ballot: Paul Cook (R) vs. Gregg Imus (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-36

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 9th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Lodi) and eastern Contra Costa County (Antioch)

November ballot: Jerry McNerney (D-inc) vs. Ricky Gill (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 47-44

Governor 2010: Brown 51-42

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Republicans landed a top recruit in Gill to face McNerney, who has had a history of tough races. This district became slightly more Democratic than the old one, voting for Boxer and Brown. Gill could use McNerney’s recent move to Stockton from Pleasanton in the Bay Area to his advantage, and has argued that McNerney has not been an effective San Joaquin County representative. This will be a race to watch, though due to this district being slightly more Democratic than the old CA-11, I give McNerney a small edge.

California’s 10th congressional district: LIKELY GOP

Geography: Stanislaus County and southwestern San Joaquin County

November ballot: Jeff Denham (R-inc) vs. Jose Hernandez (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 52-39

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44

President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Denham’s weak performance in June was surprising, considering his history of big margins in similar districts, though that may be due to nonpartisan candidate Chad Condit (son of former conservative Democrat congressman Gary Condit).

California’s 11th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Contra Costa County (Richmond, Walnut Creek, Concord)

November ballot: George Miller (D-inc) vs. Virginia Fuller (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-34

Governor 2010: Brown 61-34

President 2008: Obama 69-28

California’s 12th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Francisco

November ballot: Nancy Pelosi (D-inc) vs. John Dennis (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14

Governor 2010: Brown 78-16

President 2008: Obama 84-13

California’s 13th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Berkeley, Oakland

November ballot: Barbara Lee (D-inc) vs. Marilyn Singleton (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 83-11

Governor 2010: Brown 84-11

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 14th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: South San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo, Redwood City

November ballot: Jackie Speier (D-inc) vs. Debbie Bacigalupi (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27

Governor 2010: Brown 66-28

President 2008: Obama 73-24

California’s 15th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Southern East Bay (Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon)

November ballot: Pete Stark (D-inc) vs. Eric Swalwell (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-34

Governor 2010: Brown 59-35

President 2008: Obama 67-30

Description: For once, we have a race to watch in a safe district, with delegation dean Stark against fellow Democrat Swalwell. Stark has had a series of gaffes, and Swalwell gained the endorsements of the San Francisco Chronicle and Bay Area Newsgroup. Swalwell also hails from a part of the district that is new to Stark, the Tri-Valley area. Will term 20 be Stark’s last term?

California’s 16th congressional district: LIKELY DEM

Geography: Fresno, Madera, Merced

November ballot: Jim Costa (D-inc) vs. Brian Whelan (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-43

Governor 2010: Brown 50-42

President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Costa traded the Kern and Kings portions of his old district for Madera and Merced. He should be fine if he takes the race seriously, unlike last time.

California’s 17th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Mike Honda (D-inc) vs. Evelyn Li (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29

Governor 2010: Brown 61-34

President 2008: Obama 69-28

California’s 18th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Menlo Park, Palo Alto, San Jose)

November ballot: Anna Eshoo (D-inc) vs. David Chapman (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 60-35

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 19th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Jose

November ballot: Zoe Lofgren (D-inc) vs. Robert Murray (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 60-25

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 20th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Northern Central Coast (Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz)

November ballot: Sam Farr (D-inc) vs. Jeff Taylor (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 63-31

President 2008: Obama 71-26

California’s 21st congressional district: LIKELY GOP

Geography: Southern Central Valley (Hanford, Bakersfield)

November ballot: John Hernandez (D) vs. David Valadao (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-40

Governor 2010: Brown 48-44

President 2008: Obama 52-46

Description: With the Democrats’ two best candidates, Michael Rubio and Dean Florez, not running and Valadao winning a majority of the vote in the first round, this district is very likely to go Republican.

California’s 22nd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Fresno, Visalia

November ballot: Devin Nunes (R-inc) vs. Otto Lee (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 59-35

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 23rd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Kern County (Bakersfield)

November ballot: Kevin McCarthy (R-inc) vs. Terry Phillips (NPP)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 64-26

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-33

President 2008: McCain 61-36

California’s 24th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties

November ballot: Lois Capps (D-inc) vs. Abel Maldonado (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45

Governor 2010: Brown 47-46

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This was probably the toughest race for me to rate, between lean Dem and toss-up. Capps gets back her old district from the 90s that was marginal (including voting for Bob Dole in 1996) and that she won close races in. Capps is more entrenched now than she was in the 90s, but I don’t think she is used to serious campaigning after five non-competitive races. In addition, Maldonado represented this area in the state legislature, though he is not liked by the party base and could be hammered on taxes. I decided to give Capps a few more points due to being entrenched, though this race could become a toss-up again if there are any new developments.

California’s 25th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley

November ballot: Buck McKeon (R-inc) vs. Lee Rogers (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: Obama 49-48

California’s 26th congressional district: TOSS-UP

Geography: Ventura County (Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks)

November ballot: Julia Brownley (D) vs. Tony Strickland (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45

Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Democrats suffered a setback when County Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out in February and recruited Assemblywoman Brownley. A Santa Monica-area rep would be an awkward fit for a Ventura County district, but Strickland has had many close races himself. It is unknown who the supporters of nonpartisan candidate Linda Parks will go to in November.

California’s 27th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Pasadena, Monterey Park, Alhambra

November ballot: Judy Chu (D-inc) vs. Jack Orswell (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-39

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 28th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Glendale, Burbank

November ballot: Adam Schiff (D-inc) vs. Phil Jennerjahn (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-30

Governor 2010: Brown 63-30

President 2008: Obama 70-26

California’s 29th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-24

Governor 2010: Brown 68-24

President 2008: Obama 74-23

California’s 30th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Howard Berman (D-inc) vs. Brad Sherman (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 57-36

President 2008: Obama 66-31

Description: This is the same-party race to watch, a clash of the titans if you will. Berman has the Hollywood establishment, while Sherman has more local endorsements, as well as Bill Clinton. Sherman has also been more visible in the area, and got more votes than Berman in June. As far as Republican/conservative outreach goes, Berman has the support of former mayor Richard Riordan, DA Steve Cooley, and county supervisor Mike Antonovich, while CPA and former Board of Equalization (the state’s tax board) member Sherman voted against TARP in 2008.

California’s 31st congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands

November ballot: Bob Dutton (R) vs. Gary Miller (R-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44

Governor 2010: Brown 49-41

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the only race where top-two cost a party a chance at a pickup. I hope this missed opportunity teaches Democrats a lesson to be more disciplined when it comes to candidates. As far as November goes, the combination of familiarity among locals and no scandals should give Dutton a comfortable edge.

California’s 32nd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Gabriel Valley

November ballot: Grace Napolitano (D-inc) vs. David Miller (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-36

Governor 2010: Brown 57-35

President 2008: Obama 62-35

California’s 33rd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: West Side L.A., Beach Cities, Palos Verdes

November ballot: Henry Waxman (D-inc) vs. Bill Bloomfield (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-39

Governor 2010: Brown 54-40

President 2008: Obama 64-32

California’s 34th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A.

November ballot: Xavier Becerra (D-inc) vs. Steven Smith (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16

Governor 2010: Brown 76-16

President 2008: Obama 77-19

California’s 35th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inland Empire (Pomona, Fontana, Ontario)

November ballot: Joe Baca (D-inc) vs. Gloria Negrete-McLeod (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34

Governor 2010: Brown 58-33

President 2008: Obama 64-32

Description: Another same-party race to watch, with McLeod challenging Baca from the left. McLeod has represented Pomona and Chino, which are not familiar to Baca, and held him under 50% despite establishment backing.

California’s 36th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Riverside County

November ballot: Mary Bono Mack (R-inc) vs. Raul Ruiz (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-42

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43

President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Bono Mack had a closer-than-usual race in 2010 due to a third-party conservative. Now with a more Republican district she should be able to breathe easier.

California’s 37th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Crenshaw, Culver City

November ballot: Karen Bass (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 79-14

Governor 2010: Brown 79-15

President 2008: Obama 84-13

California’s 38th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Norwalk, Lakewood, Whittier

November ballot: Linda SƔnchez (D-inc) vs. Ben Campos (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-35

Governor 2010: Brown 57-35

President 2008: Obama 61-35

California’s 39th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Fullerton, Yorba Linda, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills

November ballot: Ed Royce (R-inc) vs. Jay Chen (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 54-38

President 2008: McCain 49-47

California’s 40th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens

November ballot: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-inc) vs. David John Sanchez (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 72-18

Governor 2010: Brown 73-19

President 2008: Obama 77-19

California’s 41st congressional district: TOSS-UP

Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Mark Takano (D) vs. John Tavaglione (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 59-40

Description: This new Riverside seat will probably be the SoCal race to watch. On paper it should go Democratic, but Republicans have historically fared well in Riverside races. However, I haven’t been able to find any old Riverside districts as Democratic as this, so this district is uncharted territory for both parties.

California’s 42nd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Corona, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore

November ballot: Ken Calvert (R-inc) vs. Michael Williamson (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-35

President 2008: McCain 54-43

California’s 43rd congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne

November ballot: Maxine Waters (D-inc) vs. Bob Flores (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 68-23

Governor 2010: Brown 69-24

President 2008: Obama 75-22

Description: Flores got a third of the vote in the primary, so this may be a race to watch to see if Waters’ ethics issues finally catch up to her.

California’s 44th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Carson, Compton, Long Beach, San Pedro

November ballot: Janice Hahn (D-inc) vs. Laura Richardson (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-15

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 81-16

Description: The other incumbent-vs.-incumbent race has much less drama. Like in June, Hahn should easily get more votes than scandal-tainted Richardson.

California’s 45th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Central Orange County (Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo)

November ballot: John Campbell (R-inc) vs. Sukhee Kang (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33

Governor 2010: Whitman 59-34

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 46th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: North Central Orange County (Anaheim, Santa Ana)

November ballot: Loretta Sanchez (D-inc) vs. Jerry Hayden (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-40

Governor 2010: Brown 50-40

President 2008: Obama 58-39

California’s 47th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: Long Beach, Garden Grove

November ballot: Gary DeLong (R) vs. Alan Lowenthal (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-42

Governor 2010: Brown 50-42

President 2008: Obama 58-39

Description: This should be a comfortable Democratic win, but Lowenthal’s until-recently lackluster fundraising and opposition to high-speed rail funds for the Central Valley has Democrats concerned. DeLong is also a serious contender, with strong backing from the NRCC.

California’s 48th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach

November ballot: Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc) vs. Ron Varasteh (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-35

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-35

President 2008: McCain 51-46

Californias’ 49th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Dana Point, San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad

November ballot: Darrell Issa (R-inc) vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: Obama 49-48

California’s 50th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Temecula, San Diego County (Escondido, Santee)

November ballot: Duncan D. Hunter (R-inc) vs. David B. Secor (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-28

Governor 2010: Whitman 61-31

President 2008: McCain 58-39

California’s 51st congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Imperial County, San Diego (Chula Vista, Imperial Beach)

November ballot: Michael Crimmins (R) vs. Juan Vargas (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 58-31

President 2008: Obama 65-32

California’s 52nd congressional district: LEAN GOP

Geography: Coronado, Poway, San Diego

November ballot: Brian Bilbray (R-inc) vs. Scott Peters (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-42

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43

President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: This district is less Republican than the old CA-50, though Bilbray isn’t new to swingy districts having represented the old CA-49 in the 90s. Peters made it to the November ballot in spite of a nasty primary fight with the more liberal Saldana.

California’s 53rd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Diego, Lemon Grove, El Cajon

November ballot: Susan Davis (D-inc) vs. Nick Popaditch (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 60-36

Overall, here are my ratings for the congressional races.

Guaranteed DEM: 7

Safe DEM: 21

Likely DEM: 1

Lean DEM: 4

Toss-Up: 2

Lean GOP: 2

Likely GOP: 2

Safe GOP: 12

Guaranteed GOP: 2

If my ratings pan out, the best Democrats can do (holding all their Guaranteed, Safe, Likely, and Lean seats and winning both toss-ups) is 35-18 and the best Republicans can do is 33-20.

Districts I’m watching: CA-03, CA-07, CA-09, CA-15, CA-24, CA-26, CA-30, CA-35, CA-41, CA-43, CA-47, CA-52

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Super Tuesday Edition

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

U.S. House

District “Incumbent” DEM GOP Margin Cook PVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
Garamendi
41.6
32.3
D+9.3
D+2.8
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+4.4
CA-07
Lungren
39.2
38.2
D+1.0
R+0.9
R+7.4
D+5.4
R+0.5
CA-09
McNerney
44.6
35.8
D+8.8
D+4.3
D+3.0
D+9.2
D+6.3
CA-16
Costa
47.9
32.7
D+15.2
D+5.2
R+3.8
D+8.4
D+6.3
CA-21
None
45.4
34.4
D+11.0
R+0.7
R+11.6
D+4.0
D+0.7
CA-24
Capps
38.9
35.1
D+3.8
D+4.3
R+1.4
D+0.6
D+1.8
CA-26
None
40.9
35.2
D+5.7
D+4.0
R+2.0
R+1.0
D+1.7
CA-31
None
41.0
35.9
D+5.1
D+4.0
D+2.2
D+8.2
D+4.9
CA-36
Bono Mack
39.0
40.7
R+1.7
R+2.1
R+11.0
R+6.8
R+5.4
CA-41
None
41.8
34.9
D+6.9
D+5.9
D+7.4
D+13.0
D+8.3
CA-46
Sanchez
44.3
31.7
D+12.6
D+6.3
D+10.0
D+10.6
D+9.9
CA-47
None
42.4
31.6
D+10.8
D+6.3
D+8.6
D+9.4
D+8.8
CA-52
Bilbray
32.7
35.4
R+2.7
D+2.5
R+7.8
R+8.4
R+4.1

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
SD-05
41.7
38.7
D+3.0
R+7.0
D+1.6
D+0.6
R+1.4
SD-19
43.6
31.3
D+12.3
R+6.2
D+6.2
D+7.9
D+2.3
SD-27
40.4
34.6
D+5.8
R+0.8
R+0.8
D+4.7
D+0.8
SD-31
39.7
36.7
D+3.0
R+0.2
D+5.6
D+3.8
D+3.3
SD-39
37.7
30.4
D+7.3
D+6.6
D+6.0
D+8.6
D+6.8

State Assembly

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
AD-08
40.1
37.5
D+2.6
R+5.2
D+7.6
EVEN
D+1.6
AD-16
39.8
34.1
D+5.7
D+5.0
D+5.8
D+23.4
D+6.3
AD-21
46.3
34.1
D+12.2
R+7.2
D+1.2
D+11.5
R+0.5
AD-31
49.1
31.6
D+17.5
D+3.2
D+14.6
D+20.8
D+10.3
AD-32
46.6
32.5
D+14.1
R+8.3
R+8.6
D+7.7
R+5.4
AD-40
38.0
38.5
R+0.5
R+6.0
D+1.0
D+7.6
R+1.6
AD-44
38.9
37.0
D+1.9
R+5.8
R+5.4
D+12.0
R+4.0
AD-60
36.6
39.0
R+2.4
R+10.8
R+4.8
D+5.0
R+6.7
AD-61
42.6
34.5
D+8.1
D+10.4
D+15.8
D+24.0
D+13.1
AD-65
36.0
37.3
R+1.3
R+10.6
R+8.8
D+3.4
R+8.2
AD-66
38.2
35.4
D+2.8
R+2.2
R+1.4
D+12.6
R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 36 DEM, 17 GOP

Safe DEM (27): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (13): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Christmas/New Year’s edition

Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.

In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

Here is the lowdown on these districts.

U.S. House

District “Incumbent” DEM GOP Margin 2008 Pres. 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
Garamendi
42.1
32.8
D+9.3
D+12.6
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+3.9
CA-07
Lungren
39.4
38.6
D+0.8
D+5.5
R+7.4
D+5.4
R+0.5
CA-09
McNerney
45.3
35.8
D+9.5
D+15.5
D+3.0
D+9.2
D+6.9
CA-16
Costa
48.3
33.4
D+14.9
D+17.8
R+3.8
D+8.4
D+3.9
CA-21
None
46.2
35.3
D+10.9
D+5.8
R+11.6
D+4.0
R+1.9
CA-24
Capps
39.2
35.6
D+3.6
D+15.5
R+1.4
D+0.6
D+0.8
CA-26
Gallegly (?)
41.1
35.5
D+5.6
D+14.9
R+2.0
R+1.0
D+0.0
CA-31
Dreier/Lewis (?)
41.1
37.0
D+4.1
D+14.9
D+2.2
D+8.2
D+5.6
CA-36
Bono Mack
39.0
41.4
R+2.4
D+3.1
R+11.0
R+6.8
R+7.7
CA-41
None
41.9
35.3
D+6.6
D+18.9
D+7.4
D+13.0
D+10.3
CA-46
Sanchez
44.8
32.1
D+12.7
D+19.2
D+10.0
D+10.6
D+11.0
CA-47
None
42.6
32.0
D+10.6
D+19.3
D+8.6
D+9.4
D+9.7
CA-52
Bilbray
32.9
35.9
R+3.0
D+12.1
R+7.8
R+8.4
R+6.6

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. 2008 Pres. PF
SD-05
42.6
38.2
D+4.4
R+7.0
D+1.6
D+8.4
R+1.4
SD-19
44.0
31.8
D+12.2
R+6.2
D+6.2
D+22.5
D+2.3
SD-27
40.9
34.6
D+6.3
R+0.8
R+0.8
D+16.4
D+0.8
SD-31
39.8
37.1
D+2.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
D+14.5
D+3.3
SD-39
38.1
30.9
D+7.2
D+6.6
D+6.0
D+13.8
D+6.8

State Assembly

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. 2008 Pres. PF
AD-08
40.4
37.9
D+2.5
R+5.2
D+7.6
D+7.1
D+1.6
AD-16
40.1
34.4
D+5.7
D+5.0
D+5.8
D+23.4
D+6.3
AD-21
47.9
33.0
D+14.9
R+7.2
D+1.2
D+11.5
R+0.5
AD-31
49.7
32.9
D+16.8
D+3.2
D+14.6
D+20.8
D+10.3
AD-32
47.5
33.5
D+14.0
R+8.3
R+8.6
D+7.7
R+5.4
AD-40
39.6
38.0
D+1.6
R+6.0
D+1.0
D+7.6
R+1.6
AD-44
39.2
37.2
D+2.0
R+5.8
R+5.4
D+12.0
R+4.0
AD-60
36.6
39.7
R+3.1
R+10.8
R+4.8
D+5.0
R+6.7
AD-61
42.8
34.7
D+8.1
D+10.4
D+15.8
D+24.0
D+13.1
AD-65
36.6
38.0
R+1.4
R+10.6
R+8.8
D+3.4
R+8.2
AD-66
38.4
35.6
D+2.8
R+2.2
R+1.4
D+12.6
R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP

Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Redistricting California (Part 4): Hypothetical Unicameral Legislature

(This is an interesting thought experiment. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

In the last part of my redistricting California series, here is a map of what a 120-district unicameral legislature, the Senate and Assembly merged, might look like. I did this map at the same time as the Assembly map.

Majority-White: 54

Majority-Black: 1

Majority-Hispanic: 16

Majority-Minority: 49

Safe Dem: 56

Likely Dem: 13

Lean Dem: 6

Toss-Up: 10

Lean GOP: 14

Likely GOP: 11

Safe GOP: 10

Photobucket

Outer NorCal

l

LD-01: Humboldt County, Mendocino County, most of Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-02: Most of southern Sonoma County

Demographics: 73% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-03: Marin County, Petaluma in Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 12% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 77%, McCain 21% (SAFE DEM: D+24)

LD-04: Del Norte County, Siskiyou County, Trinity County, Shasta County, Modoc County, Lassen County

Demographics: 83% White, 7% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 60%, Obama 38% (SAFE GOP: R+14)

LD-05: Tehama County, Glenn County, Colusa County, most of Butte County

Demographics: 77% White, 15% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-06: Sutter County, Yuba County, Sierra County, Plumas County, most of Nevada County, Oroville in Butte County

Demographics: 72% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-07: Lake County, Napa County, Vallejo in Solano County

Demographics: 58% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-08: Yolo County, Vacaville and Winters in Solano County

Demographics: 60% White, 23% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-09: Most of Solano County, southern and eastern Sacramento County

Demographics: 60% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 43% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-10: Southern Sacramento

Demographics: 40% White, 20% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 65%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

LD-11: Central Sacramento

Demographics: 50% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-12: Northern Sacramento

Demographics: 61% White, 16% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-13: Placer County, part of southern Nevada County

Demographics: 81% White, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-14: Northwestern Sacramento County, southeastern Placer County

Demographics: 74% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Black, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-15: El Dorado County, Citrus Heights and Folsom in Sacramento County

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

San Francisco/Oakland/East Bay

Photobucket

LD-16: Western San Francisco

Demographics: 50% White, 36% Asian, 6% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-17: Northeastern San Francisco

Demographics: 49% White, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

LD-18: Southeastern San Francisco, Daly City

Demographics: 41% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 22% White, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-19: Martinez, Richmond

Demographics: 39% White, 21% Hispanic, 19% BLack, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 80%, McCain 18% (SAFE DEM: D+27)

LD-20: Berkeley, Emeryville

Demographics: 49% White, 22% Black, 16% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-21: Oakland

Demographics: 31% Black, 26% Hispanic, 20% White, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 87%, McCain 11% (SAFE DEM: D+34)

LD-22: South San Francisco, San Mateo, Pacifica

Demographics: 52% White, 21% Hispanic, 21% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-23: Most of San Mateo County, small part of northwestern Santa Clara County

Demographics: 58% White, 22% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: 74% Obama, 24% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-24: Silicon Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 29% Asian, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: 75% Obama, 23% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-25: Pleasant Hill, Lafayette, Orinda

Demographics: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-26: Eastern Contra Costa County

Demographics: 56% White, 23% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-27: San Ramon, eastern Alameda County

Demographics: 76% White, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-28: San Leandro

Demographics: 40% White, 26% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-29: Hayward, Union City, Fremont

Demographics: 35% White, 34% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-30: Milpitas, Santa Clara

Demographics: 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain, 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-31: Northern San Jose

Demographics: 35% Hispanic, 29% Asian, 29% White

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-32: Eastern San Jose

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 16% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-33: Downtown San Jose

Demographics: 62% White, 16% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-34: Palo Alto, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, western Stanislaus County

Demographics: 62% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-35: Santa Cruz County, Gilroy

Demographics: 61% White, 31% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

Central

Photobucket

LD-36: Turlock, Merced County

Demographics: 44% White, 42% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-37: Lodi, Tracy, Escalon, Ripon

Demographics: 57% White, 27% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-38: Stockton

Demographics: 34% White, 33% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-39: Lathrop, Manteca, Modesto

Demographics: 58% White, 27% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-40: Eastern Central Valley, eastern Stanislaus County, eastern Madera County

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-41: Western Madera County, northern Fresno

Demographics: 51% White, 36% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 47% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-42: Southern Fresno

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 28% White, 13% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-43: San Benito County, Salinas

Demographics: 48% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-44: Most of Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties

Demographics: 70% White, 22% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-46: Western Fresno County, eastern Fresno

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 42% White, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

LD-47: Eastern Fresno, Visalia

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 45% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-48: Most of Tulare, all of Inyo, Ridgecrest in Kern County

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-49: Kings County, northwestern Kern County

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 40% White, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 58%, Obama 40% (SAFE GOP: R+12)

Outer SoCal

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LD-45: San Luis Obispo, Pismo Beach, Santa Maria, Lompoc

Demographics: 58% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 49.1%, McCain 48.9% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-50: Bakersfield

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 42% White, 8% Black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 49% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-51: Central and eastern Kern County

Demographics: 59% White, 29% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 62%, Obama 37% (SAFE GOP: R+16)

LD-52: Santa Barbara, Ojai, Ventura

Demographics: 60% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-53: Northern and eastern Ventura County

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-55: Santa Clarita

Demographics: 63% White, 22% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 6% black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-56: Lancaster, Palmdale, Adelanto, Victorville

Demographics: 50% White, 31% Hispanic, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-57: Hesperia, Victorville, Barstow, California City

Demographics: 61% White, 25% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-92: Redlands, Yucaipa

Demographics: 68% White, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

LD-107: Temecula, Desert Hot Springs

Demographics: 67% White, 23% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-108: Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indio

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-120: Blythe, Imperial County, eastern San Diego County

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 36% White

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

Los Angeles/San Bernardino

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LD-54: Oxnard, Camarillo

Demographics: 50% White, 39% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-58: Western San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-59: Southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 33% White, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-60: San Fernando

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 26% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-61: Far southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-62: Burbank, Glendale

Demographics: 53% White, 28% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-63: South Pasadena

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 29% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-64: San Gabriel, El Monte, Baldwin Park

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 28% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 66%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

LD-65: South El Monte, Industry, La Habra Heights

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 19% White

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-66: Covina, Walnut, Diamond Bar

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 26% White, 25% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-67: Port Hueneme, Malibu, Santa Monica

Demographics: 65% White, 22% Hispanic, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-68: West Side L.A.

Demographics: 65% White, 15% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-69: Beverly Hills, West Hollywood

Demographics: 73% White, 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-70: Inglewood

Demographics: 47% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-71: Culver City, Hawthorne

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 26% Black, 16% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-72: South Central L.A., Compton

Demographics: 52% Black, 45% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 95%, McCain 4% (SAFE DEM: D+42)

LD-73: Downtown L.A. (yellow)

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 25% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-74: Downtown L.A. (yellow green)

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black, 6% White

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-75: Downtown L.A. (pink)

Demographics: 64% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 13% Black

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-76: South Central, Vernon

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 24% Black

2008 President: Obama 92%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+39)

LD-77: Commerce, Maywood, Bell

Demographics: 90% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-78: Montebello, Pico Rivera, Whittier

Demographics: 68% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-79: El Segundo, Beach Cities

Demographics: 47% White, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 37% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-80: Palos Verdes, Torrance

Demographics: 50% White, 24% Hispanic, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

LD-81: Carson, part of Long Beach

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 21% White, 15% Black, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-82: South Gate, Paramount, Lynwood

Demographics: 80% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% White

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-83: Downey, Bellflower, Signal Hill

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 32% White, 11% Black, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-84: Artesia, Norwalk, Lakewood, La Mirada

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 28% White, 21% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 40% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-85: La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena

Demographics: 34% White, 30% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-86: Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-87: Claremont, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga

Demographics: 54% White, 28% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-88: Pomona, Montclair, Chino Hills

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 27% White, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

LD-89: Chino, Ontario, Fontana

Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 25% White, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-90: Rialto, Colton

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 23% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-91: San Bernardino, Loma Linda, Grand Terrace

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 32% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-93: Calimesa, Beaumont, Banning

Demographics: 63% White, 27% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-103: Corona, Norco

Demographics: 49% White, 37% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-104: Riverside

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 42% White, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 42% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-105: Moreno Valley

Demographics: 38% White, 35% Hispanic, 16% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-106: Perris, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta

Demographics: 58% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

Orange County

LD-94: Long Beach, Seal Beach

Demographics: 50% White, 27% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-95: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa

Demographics: 62% White, 21% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-96: Newport Beach, Irvine

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-97: Anaheim

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

LD-98: Garden Grove, Stanton

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 30% White

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-99: Santa Ana

Demographics: 78% Hispanic, 11% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-100: Cypress, Buena Park, Fullerton

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 19% Asian

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-101: Placentia, Yorba Linda, Brea

Demographics: 63% White, 20% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-102: Orange, Tustin

Demographics: 55% White, 25% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-109: Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Niguel

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-110: San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, San Clemente, Camp Pendleton, Oceanside

Demographics: 63% White, 26% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

San Diego

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LD-111: Vista, Carlsbad

Demographics: 63% White, 24% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-112: Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar

Demographics: 71% White, 13% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-113: San Diego (purple)

Demographics: 64% White, 19% Asian, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-114: San Diego (red), Lemon Grove

Demographics: 54% Whtie, 21% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-115: San Diego (gold)

Demographics: 49% White, 32% Hispanic, 10% Black, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

LD-116: Coronado, Imperial Beach, San Diego (teal)

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 23% White, 17% Asian, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 36% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-117: National City, Chula Vista

Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 27% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-118: Santee, Poway

Demographics: 65% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 42% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-119: El Cajon, La Mesa

Demographics: 71% White, 17% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

Redistricting California (Part 3): State Assembly and BoE

Here are my maps of the California State Assembly and the Board of Equalization, the tax board. To make each BoE district, I colored over 20 Assembly districts.

Majority-White: 37

Majority-Black: 1

Majority-Hispanic: 11

Majority-Minority: 31

Safe Dem: 35

Likely Dem: 9

Lean Dem: 3

Toss-Up: 12

Lean GOP: 7

Likely GOP: 8

Safe GOP: 6

Outer NorCal

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AD-01: Rural North Coast, northern Sonoma County

Demographics: 75% White, 15% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

AD-02: Marin County, southern Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 77%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+24)

AD-03: Most of Sacramento Valley and Northern Mountains

Demographics: 79% White, 12% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 59%, Obama 38% (SAFE GOP: R+13)

AD-04: Rest of Sacramento Valley

Demographics: 75% White, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 49%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-05: All of Lake, Napa, and Yolo Counties; northern Solano County

Demographics: 63% White, 22% Hispanic, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-06: Southern Solano County; most of suburban Sacramento

Demographics: 55% White, 16% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-07: Southern Sacramento

Demographics: 39% White, 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

AD-08: Northern Sacramento

Demographics: 61% White, 16% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-09: Placer County, small parts of Sacramento and Nevada Counties

Demographics: 79% White, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-10: All of El Dorado, Alpine, and Mono Counties; northwestern Sacramento suburbs

Demographics: 79% White, 10% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

San Francisco

Photobucket

AD-11: Western San Francisco, Daly City

Demographics: 41% Asian, 39% White, 12% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 81%, McCain 17% (SAFE DEM: D+28)

AD-12: Eastern San Francisco

Demographics: 41% White, 26% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

AD-13: Martinez, Richmond, Berkeley

Demographics: 44% White, 19% Black, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

AD-14: Oakland

Demographics: 30% Black, 28% White, 20% Hispanic, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 88%, McCain 10% (SAFE DEM: D+35)

AD-15: Most of San Mateo County

Demographics: 58% White, 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-16: Silicon Valley

Demographics: 51% White, 22% Asian, 20% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-17: Northern Contra Costa County (Pittsburg, Concord, Antioch)

Demographics: 61% White, 19% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 6% Black

2008 President: Obama 68% McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-18: Southern Contra Costa County, eastern Alameda County

Demographics: 75% White, 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 40% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-19: San Leandro, Hayward, Union City

Demographics: 37% White, 25% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

AD-20: Newark, Milpitas

Demographics: 41% White, 34% Asian, 17% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 71%, McCain 27% (SAFE DEM: D+18)

AD-21: Eastern San Jose

Demographics: 35% Hispanic, 35% Asian, 22% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

AD-22: Western San Jose

Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

AD-23: Santa Cruz County, southwestern Santa Clara County

Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-24: Eastern Santa Clara County, western Stanislaus County, Merced County

Demographics: 45% White, 42% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

Central

Photobucket

AD-25: Northern San Joaquin County (Lodi, Stockton)

Demographics: 42% White, 31% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 42% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

AD-26: Southern San Joaquin County, Modesto

Demographics: 58% White, 27% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

AD-27: Eastern Stanislaus County, eastern Central Valley

Demographics: 64% White, 27% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-28: Fresno

Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 37% White, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

AD-29: Most of Fresno County, all of Inyo County

Demographics: 46% White, 42% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-30: Reedley, all of Tulare County

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 41% White

2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

AD-31: Monterey and San Benito Counties

Demographics: 46% White, 41% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

AD-32: San Luis Obispo County, Santa Maria, Lompoc

Demographics: 64% White, 27% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-33: Kings County, most of Kern County

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 43% White, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 58%, Obama 40% (SAFE GOP: R+12)

AD-34: Bakersfield

Demographics: 51% White, 34% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

Outer SoCal

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AD-35: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard

Demographics: 52% White, 38% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-36: Most of Ventura County

Demographics: 69% White, 22% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-37: Santa Clarita, Lancaster, Palmdale

Demographics: 57% White, 26% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-38: California City, Barstow, Victorville, northeastern L.A. County

Demographics: 60% White, 26% Hispanic, 8% Black

2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 42% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

AD-61: San Bernardino, Big Bear Lake, Twentynine Palms

Demographics: 46% White, 34% Hispanic, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

AD-62: Redlands, Hemet

Demographics: 62% White, 26% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-63: Corona, Moreno Valley

Demographics: 40% White, 39% Hispanic, 12% Black, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

AD-64: Riverside, Norco

Demographics: 46% White, 38% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-65: Lake Elsinore, Murrieta, Temecula

Demographics: 62% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-66: Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Indio

Demographics: 51% White, 42% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

AD-80: Blythe, Imperial County, eastern San Diego County

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 42% White

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

Los Angeles/Orange County

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AD-39: Western San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 27% Hispanic, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-40: Eastern San Fernando Valley (San Fernando)

Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 22% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-41: Burbank

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 39% White, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-42: Glendale (Mike Gatto)

Demographics: 40% White, 37% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-43: San Gabriel, El Monte, Baldwin Park

Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 17% White

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

AD-44: Covina, West Covina, Diamond Bar

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 22% White

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 37% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

AD-45: Santa Monica, Malibu, Port Hueneme

Demographics: 65% White, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 71%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+18)

AD-46: Beverly Hills, West Hollywood

Demographics: 70% White, 12% Asian, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-47: Inglewood, Hawthorne

Demographics: 51% Black, 37% Hispanic, 6% White

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 8% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

AD-48: Culver City, Compton (I had to make this district snake around AD-47 to make that one majority-black)

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 32% Black, 10% White, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 88%, McCain 11% (SAFE DEM: D+35)

AD-49: Downtown L.A.

Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 18% White

2008 President: Obama 81%, McCain 17% (SAFE DEM: D+28)

AD-50: Downtown L.A.

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 12% Black, 8% Asian, 5% White

2008 President: Obama 85%, McCain 13% (SAFE DEM: D+32)

AD-51: Vernon, Bell, Bell Gardens

Demographics: 80% Hispanic, 16% Black

2008 President: Obama 89%, McCain 10% (SAFE DEM: D+36)

AD-52: Monterey Park, Montebello, Whittier

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 14% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-53: Beach Cities, Torrance (Betsy Butler)

Demographics: 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 18% Hispanic, 6% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-54: Palos Verdes, Carson, part of Long Beach

Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 31% White, 14% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 66%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

AD-55: South Gate, Downey

Demographics: 69% Hispanic, 13% White, 10% Black, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-56: Lakewood, Bellflower, Norwalk

Demographics: 42% Hispanic, 31% White, 18% Asian, 6% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-57: La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena, South Pasadena, Monrovia

Demographics: 36% White, 29% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 65%, McCain 33% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

AD-58: Glendora, Claremont, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga

Demographics: 53% White, 30% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+3)

AD-59: Pomona, Chino, Montclair

Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 28% White, 9% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-60: Ontario, Fontana, Rialto, Colton

Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 22% White, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

AD-67: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach

Demographics: 56% White, 23% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 6% Black

2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-68: Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Irvine, Laguna Hills, Laguna Beach

Demographics: 68% White, 15% Hispanic, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-69: Anaheim, Stanton, Garden Grove

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 32% White, 20% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-70: Santa Ana

Demographics: 65% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 15% White

2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

AD-71: Northern Orange County (Cypress, Buena Park, Brea, Fullerton)

Demographics: 50% White, 28% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

AD-72: Yorba Linda, Orange, Tustin

Demographics: 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point

Demographics: 74% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Asian

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

San Diego

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AD-74: Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad

Demographics: 59% White, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

AD-75: Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar

Demographics: 66% White, 17% Asian, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-76: Northern San Diego, Lemon Grove

Demographics: 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

AD-77: Southern San Diego

Demographics: 36% White, 35% Hispanic, 14% Black, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-78: Coronado Beach, National City, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach

Demographics: 49% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-79: Poway, El Cajon, Santee, La Mesa

Demographics: 73% White, 15% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

Board of Equalization

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BOE-1: San Francisco and Sacramento Areas

Demographics: 51% White, 20% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

BOE-2: Outer NorCal and Central

Demographics: 58% White, 29% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 49%, Obama 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

BOE-3: Outer SoCal, Orange County, San Diego

Demographics: 49% White, 34% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+0)

BOE-4: Los Angeles

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 29% White, 13% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)