Tag Archives: Primaries

Lessons from the “Enlightened Eight”: Republicans Can Vote Pro-Environment and Not Get “Tea Partied

On June 26, 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 219-212 in favor of HR 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). Only eight Republicans – we'll call them the “Enlightened Eight” – voted “aye.” These Republicans were Mary Bono-Mack (CA-45), Mike Castle (DE-AL), John McHugh (NY-23), Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2), Leonard Lance (NJ-7), Mark Kirk (IL-10), Dave Reichert (WA-8), and Christopher Smith (NJ-4).

Republicans voting for cap and trade in the year of the Tea Party? You'd think that they'd be dumped in the harbor by now. Instead, they're all doing fine. In fact, to date, not a single one of these Republicans has been successfully primaried by the “tea party” (or otherwise). Instead, we have two – Castle and Kirk – running for U.S. Senate, one (McHugh) who was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama, and five others – Bono-Mack, LoBiondo, Lance, Reichert, Smith – running for reelection.

Rep. Lance actually was challenged by not one, not two, but three “Tea Party” candidates. One of Lance's opponents, David Larsen, even produced this nifty video, helpfully explaining that “Leonard Lance Loves Cap & Trade Taxes.” So, did this work? Did the Tea Partiers overthrow the tyrannical, crypto-liberal Lance? Uh, no. Instead, in the end, Lance received 56% of the vote, easily moving on to November.

Meanwhile, 100 miles or so south on the Jersey Turnpike, Rep. LoBiondo faced two “Tea Party” candidates – Donna Ward and Linda Biamonte – who also attacked on the cap-and-trade issue. According to Biamonte, cap and trade “is insidious and another tax policy… a funneling of money to Goldman Sachs and Al Gore through derivatives creating a carbon bubble like the housing bubble.” You'd think that Republican primary voters in the year of the Tea Party would agree with this line of attack. Yet LoBiondo won with 75% of the vote.

Last but not least in New Jersey, Christopher Smith easily turned back a Tea Party challenger – Alan Bateman – by a more than 2:1 margin. Bateman had argued that “Obama knows he can count on Smith to support the United Nations' agenda to redistribute American wealth to foreign countries through international Cap & Trade agreements and other programs that threaten our sovereignty.” Apparently, Republican voters in NJ-4 didn't buy that argument.

Across the country in California's 45th District, Mary Bono-Mack won 71% of the vote over Tea Party candidate Clayton Thibodeau on June 8. This, despite Thibodeau attacking Bono-Mack as “the only Republican west of the Mississippi to vote for Cap and Trade.” Thibodeau also called cap and trade “frightening,” claiming that government could force you to renovate your home or meet requirements before you purchase a home. Thibodeau's scare tactics on cap-and-trade clearly didn't play in CA-45.

Finally, in Washington's 8th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert has drawn a Tea Party challenger named Ernest Huber, who writes that Cap and Trade “is widely viewed as an attempt at Soviet-style dictatorship using the environmental scam of global warming/climate change… written by the communist Apollo Alliance, which was led by the communist Van Jones, Obama's green jobs czar.” We'll see how this argument plays with voters in Washington's 8th Congressional District, but something tells us it's not going to go over any better than in the New Jersey or California primaries.

In sum, it appears that it's quite possible for Republicans to vote for comprehensive, clean energy and climate legislation and live (politically) to tell about it. The proof is in the primaries.

Primaries Matter in the 70th Assembly District

Gary, my husband, got a sample copy of the OC Register this Sunday and we were quite happy to see two Democratic Candidates along side the four Republican primary candidates for the 70th Assembley district race.   How often does that happen?

It doesn’t really, unless there is a primary.  This is the new reality for Democrats in Orange County and why primaries matter.

Candidates crowd Assembly field to replace DeVore

Melissa Fox

The Democratic side of the draw features two Lake Forest attorneys – a former Kansas state legislator running a low-key bid and a first-time candidate who’s been aggressively campaigning for the past year.

Both return-candidate Michael Glover and newcomer Melissa Fox say they can upset the GOP nominee. Fox points out that Barack Obama beat John McCain in the district in 2008, that a ballot measure calling for parental notification for abortions failed in the district, and that the Proposition 8 ban on gay marriage passed in the district by less than a percentage point.

“The seat is not as far away as it might seem,” said Fox, an Orange County native.

The two candidates offer few distinctions on policy, and both acknowledge that an ability to appeal to Republicans and unaffiliated voters is key. Fox, 42, has outworked Glover on the campaign trail – knocking on voters’ doors, raising money and building the kind of relationships that have resulted in endorsements from the California Democratic Party, California Labor Federation, California Federation of Teachers, California National Organization for Women, and Equality California, among many others.

Michael Glover

Glover, who fell 16 percentage points short of defeating DeVore in 2008, acknowledges Fox’s advantage among establishment Democrats

“Maybe I made a mistake by not getting to know more Democrats,” he said

But he has some of the most specific policy positions in the race – including the legalization and taxation of marijuana – and he has the experience of serving from 1973 to 1980 in the Kansas Legislature.

“I’m running because I’m the best qualified candidate,” said Glover, 62. “When I get to Sacramento, I know how the sausage is made.”

You see, it’s compelling!  And it means OC Register readers see that Democratic candidates exist and they are running in primaries and that we want these seats too.  That it’s not a one party system Orange County anymore.

Why is that good for not just Democrats?  That means Republicans have to debate their ideas, they have to define themselves and hopefully that means they have to become a bit more moderate if they win.   Orange County has over 500,000 Democrats as well as many Declined to State voters who are also their constituents.  Primaries matter.

And this Primary matters a great deal to not only to me, but to Orange County Democrats.  I’ve been pretty clear about who I support and I’m voting for Melissa Fox.    And I believe that Michael Glover also has every right to run, it’s obvious this primary has been good for us.  But when it comes to game time, to the general election, is Glover going to run as hard as Melissa Fox has in the Primary?

Melissa has garnered endorsements, not just a few but a lot, endorsements  you have to WORK hard for.   I’ve watched her run from meeting to meeting, luncheon and dinner, I’ve seen her work a room like a candidate but also like someone who really cares about what she does.  Melissa has a way of making every single person she meets feel important and part of her mission, which should be every Orange County Democrats goal, to be heard in Sacramento.

Melissa Fox reaches out to every constituency, small and large and makes it a point to learn about all the issues.  She came to Oak Grove Elementary School and walked the picket lines with our teachers and listened to what they had to say about the CUSD issues, all of which would cover the 70th AD.  Melissa is engaged and inquisitive and most of all, she’s positive, her energy level is obscene, I’ve witnessed her outrun everyone in her team and just keep going.  This is who I want representing me in Sacramento, this is who I want representing me as a Democrat on the ballot in November.

It can’t be about just knowing how the sausage is made.  We’ve got lots of  people in Sacramento representing us now, who know a lot about making knackwurst and all the other kind of stuffed goodies, but that’s not really gotten us very far, has it?  The only way things can change is we have a two-thirds majority in the Assembly and the Senate.

The last thing we need is someone running a “low-key bid” in the general election.

It’s about making sure that the things that work get funded and the things that don’t work get re-examined.  And I want someone who is willing to work and learn and who will run in the General election like they’ve been running in the Primary.  For me, that’s Melissa Fox.

Here is a campaign video that Melissa Fox for Assembly put together, take a look.  And most important, vote this primary, please.  Primaries MATTER!

And, here is Melissa’s website if you want to learn more.

40 Days Until Sestak-Specter and Halter-Lincoln

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

40 days from today – on May 18 – we will see two HUGE primaries for U.S. Senate.  Even though these races aren’t in California, they impact Democrats across the country and, well, the entire country as a whole.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak will try to upset Republican-for-decades Arlen Specter.

In Arkansas, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will try to upset corporate lackey Blanche Lincoln.

These two races are tremendously important to defining who and what the Democratic Party is and what we will be fighting for.

If you can volunteer for these candidates (or encourage friends and family in Pennsylvania and Arkansas to do so), that would be amazing.

Of course, if you can help with a contribution to either or both via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page as soon as possible, it will make a big impact.

Expand the Map! ActBlue page
Joe Sestak


Facebook, Twitter


Volunteer Page
Bill Halter


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Volunteer Page
Expand the Map! ActBlue page

Polling shows that both Specter and Lincoln are at risk of – if not likely to – hand these Senate seats over to far-right-wing Republicans. (And, even if these two retain the seats, that’s not much better on many key issues.)

Congressman Sestak and Lieutenant Governor Halter winning these primaries are critical to keeping these seats in truly Democratic hands. Your support can help make that happen!  Please hop over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page right away to make a contribution – an investment in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to pull out an old expression – and show your support.

Thanks SO much for any support you can provide. 40 Days.

CA-36: Winograd Announces By The Beach

winograd2

Yesterday at the Venice Pier, Marcy Winograd announced her campaign for Congress in front of about 75-80 supporters and friends, and many leaders of the progressive activist community in Los Angeles.  The campaign showed their thrift and commitment to recycling by using the old Winograd ’06 campaign posters and skillfully pasting a “’10” sticker in the appropriate place.  It’s going to be that kind of campaign.

After a few speakers (I particularly enjoyed Julian Barger from the Harbor area of the district calling Jane Harman “Congresswoman Helmsley” for her double standard on civil liberties for her vs. civil liberties for all Americans), Marcy gave a short speech where she emphasized her no-holds-barred progressive values and offered a true contrast to her incumbent opponent.  She called for a “new New Deal” to put America back to work, announced support for John Conyers’ HR 676, questioned the continued bailout of the banks and the use of Predator drone strikes in Pakistan, argued for rapid transit and renewable energy in the Los Angeles area, and said of her primary challenge, “this will reverberate throughout the country.”

winograd1

Winograd spoke to various concerns of families in the district, noting that areas of Torrance are experiencing skyrocketing foreclosure rates, and that business has declined over 20% in the port at San Pedro.  This is an area where, with a longer campaign time frame than her quick run in 2006, Winograd can make headway in all areas of the district and throughout the South Bay, speaking to the economic concerns of the area and drawing contrast with Jane Harman’s more conservative approach.  Obviously, the greater concern about Harman more recently has been her defense of the Bush Administration’s the warrantless wiretapping and her generally hawkish stance abroad.  But there is an opening for a core economic argument, still the major preoccupation of voters, to be made.

Winograd’s announcement got covered in LA Weekly and the CoCo Times.  Mainstream news pieces about this primary challenge never fail to emphasize that the 36th is a “moderate” district and that Winograd will have to “broaden her appeal” to win over those voters.  This assumes that Democratic primary voters, or virtually anyone, makes election choices based on firm ideological footing.  Poll after poll has shown that on the issues, Americans portray a far more progressive belief system than their typical electoral choices.  Maybe consultants and Democratic strategists need to “broaden their appeal” to potential candidates that can articulate a progressive agenda.

CA-36: Harman Primary Gets Going

So I’m quoted in this Politico article about potential primary challenges to Jane Harman.  I’ve said clearly that she’ll either face a primary or drop out, and now multiple challengers, including 2006 opponent Marcy Winograd, have stepped up.  One thing that people don’t totally remember about that 2006 challenge is that Marcy got in the race in February for a June primary.  She ended up raising and spending about $380,000, but she did not have time for a national fundraising base or a netroots strategy.  She basically just went ahead and ran, and she got 38% of the vote.  Starting the primary a year out this time will simply yield better results.

The other part, which Alex Eisenstadt acknowledges, is that Harman was a target long before the recent revelation of wiretapped conservations between her and suspected Israeli agents offering vague quid pro quo deals on getting some AIPAC members out of legal trouble.

It’s true that Harman holds a firm grip on her comfortably Democratic district, having won 69 percent in the 2008 general election.

Still, her left flank remains exposed in large part because of her hawkish, pro-military reputation. After Sept. 11, 2001, Harman was an early advocate for the creation of a Department of Homeland Security, and she threw her support behind the American-led invasion of Iraq. She went so far as to criticize the FBI and the CIA for moving too slowly to respond to terrorist threats.

Those stances continue to rankle local progressives, and the recent controversy has only revived the frustrations that seemed to crest in 2006 with Winograd’s challenge. Last week, Winograd organized a protest outside Harman’s district headquarters, with activists calling on the California Democrat to resign. The environmental organization Greenpeace is coordinating a mailing in the district pressuring Harman, who has a seat on the Energy and Commerce Committee, on energy issues.

David Dayen, a California activist who writes for the liberal blog Calitics, said he expects progressive organizations to ramp up their efforts against Harman in the weeks ahead.

“I don’t get the sense that in May, the year before this primary is happening, there is going to be a lot of clamoring over Harman, but I do think you’re starting to see progressive groups get involved,” said Dayen.

I reject the theory later in the piece that CA-36 is a moderate district.  The PVI is D+12, and the formerly conservative areas have moderated their views.  Torrance, the supposed “Orange County of LA County,” just elected two Democrats to its City Council.  What’s more, Harman votes substantially to the right of the district and has for years.

Winograd will be holding a campaign kickoff on Monday at the Venice Pier around 4:00pm, so she’s obviously serious about making this run again.  And she’ll be taking questions in a liveblog session at Firedoglake today at 11am.  John Amato of Crooks and Liars fame may also make a run at this seat.

…Transcript of the FDL session here.

Campaign Update: CA-10, CA-03, CA-47, CA-50

The Internet moves at, well, Internet speed, so parts of my House race roundup were already out of date or incomplete by the time I published it.  So here’s an update on a few races.

• CA-10: John Garamendi announced a significant series of national labor endorsements for the upcoming CA-10 race, despite Mark DeSaulnier having locked up the Contra Costa County Central Labor Committee endorsement and the local Building Trades (which cover almost 100 local unions) and chairing the Senate Labor Committee.  They include:

AFSCME: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees

CNA: California Nurses Association

CFT: California Federation of Teachers

UFCW: United Food & Commercial Workers

CSEA: California School Employees Association

Laborers International Union of North America

International Union of Operating Engineers

CWA: Communication Workers of America

Many of those can provide PAC money, resources and support to Garamendi, leveling the playing field in a race where DeSaulnier captured all the early endorsements.

• CA-03: I passed on the rumor about Phil Angelides and CA-03 in my roundup, but local blogger Randy Bayne dismisses that report and notes that Elk Grove City Councilman Gary Davis will likely run, having met with the DCCC and begun the process of putting a team together.  I don’t agree with Bayne that a contested primary (Dr. Amerish Bera has also announced) would impact negatively on the race.  Especially when the candidates have low name ID, a primary can increase their public profile and show them to be a “winner” in front of the district, at the end.  Momentum can build.  Primaries don’t necessarily have to be nasty and debilitating, and I fail to understand why anyone would reject them out of hand.

Incidentally, I never took much stock in the rumor about Angelides, I simply thought it would be a decent line of inquiry, given his name ID, fundraising ability and progressive profile.

CA-47: One potential challenge to a Democratic incumbent I overlooked yesterday was Van Tran’s run against Loretta Sanchez, profiled in Politico.

On the heels of an election marked by a dismal performance among Asian voters, top Republicans are aggressively recruiting California Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American, to challenge Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) next year.

If elected, Tran would be the second Vietnamese-American in Congress, after Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.), who won his seat in a 2008 election.

Tran has already been feted at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s March fundraising dinner as a guest of the committee’s recruitment chairman, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), and he was encouraged to run by House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. He also made a trip to Washington after last November’s election to meet with officials from the NRCC.

Even Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has assisted in the recruitment process, meeting with Tran and offering support for any potential candidacy. Tran was an outspoken backer of McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and helped him carry Orange County over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary.

What the story fails to mention is that, not only does Tran not have full support among the Vietnamese community in the district, not only does Loretta Sanchez have experience easily defeating Vietnamese challengers, but Tran didn’t even do that well in his own Assembly race last year, winning over 55% of the vote against Ken Arnold.  If Tran is one of the Republicans’ top recruits, they’re in even bigger trouble than I thought.  Incidentally, Sanchez’ voting record has greatly improved over the past couple years.

• CA-50: I should have cited Francine Busby’s Firedoglake chat from a couple weeks ago.  I don’t think I agree with her on this, though:

I’ve alway said that the Latino voters have to organize register and educate from within their own community. I see more activism and organizing going on than I did before. In fact, I will be attending a meeting on Monday of the reconstituted Latino American Democratic Club in Oceanside. We may have a strong Latina running for a state office who can rally the base. Also, Bilbray is their worst nightmare, so I expect that to motivate them to get out to vote. I reach out to leaders in the community as much as possible to maintain good communications and understanding.

Outreach consists of more than “hopefully they’ll self-organize.”  You need to actually engage the Latino community instead of hoping some other local candidate can do it for you.  Not a good sign.

CA-36: Jane Harman Will Have A Primary Challenge, Or She Will Leave Congress

Here’s the latest on the Jane Harman/AIPAC story that I haven’t previously discussed here.  We know that she discussed the case against two AIPAC lobbyists with a suspected Israeli double agent, possibly Haim Saban, and made at least an implicit arrangement to push for the dropping of the case against the lobbyists in exchange for help getting appointed the chair of the House Intelligence Committee.  It is unclear whether this actually represents a violation of the federal bribery statute (doing a favor in exchange for something of value), but according to the story by Jeff Stein at CQ Politics, the Justice Department felt they had Harman in a “completed crime.”  Nancy Pelosi was briefed that Harman had been picked up on a federal wiretap but was barred from disclosing it to her House colleague, and this could explain why Harman was not appointed to that Committee Chair.  The reason that the DoJ failed to charge Harman was because Alberto Gonzales intervened on her behalf, because, among other things, he knew she would be helpful in the forthcoming battle over, amazingly enough, the Administration’s warrantless wiretapping program.

A person who is familiar with Mr. Gonzales’s account of the events said that the former attorney general had acknowledged having raised with Mr. Goss the idea that Ms. Harman was playing a helpful role in dealing with The Times.

But Mr. Gonzales’s principal motive in delaying a briefing for Congressional leaders, the person said, was to keep Ms. Harman from learning of the investigation before she could be interviewed by agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. A spokesman for Ms. Harman said the congresswoman had never been interviewed by the bureau.

There’s also the charge that then-NSA Director Michael Hayden provided talking points for a Harman discussion with NY Times Washington editor Philip Taubman BEFORE THE 2004 election, to get the paper to squash the warrantless wiretapping story.  And today, Stein advances the story by noting that a whistleblower informed then-Speaker Dennis Hastert about the Bush Administration suppression of the wiretapped Harman call (it’s a violation of standard procedure to withhold information involving national security and a member of Congress from either Democratic and Republican leaders in the House).

Needless to say, this is a tangled web of intrigue, and with more disclosures it’s likely to get worse.  This has led to speculation that Harman would either not run for another term, or face a primary challenge.  I can confirm that Marcy Winograd is likely to run if Harman does seek re-election.  Winograd, who took 38% of the vote in 2006, was not planning a run until the AIPAC/wiretap revelations.  But she is uncomfortable with Harman not being held to account, and saw no other option on the horizon.  She has a federal account and will take the pulse of the district before a formal announcement.

“I think she’s clearly in trouble and I think she knows it and is doing whatever she can to turn the tables on the situation,” Winograd said. “And now she is the spokesperson for the ACLU or the Bill of Rights Foundation.  It would be comical, if the stakes weren’t so high.” […]

One of Winograd’s first steps is going to be “taking the pulse” of the district on issues like military spending and single-payer health care, among other issues.  It’s entirely possible that Harman might bow out and try to annoint a successor.  Or that another establishment Dem might try to take advantage of her weakened position.  Which is why I wanted to get the word out as quickly as possible that there’s a really credible progressive alternative.  Winograd has already run a primary once in the district.  Activists there know who she is, and a lot of them have already worked for her in 2006.  This would not be a net-based candidacy, but it will certainly help to have it be net-supported.

In addition, the name of blogger John Amato has surfaced as a possible challenger.

(Howie) Klein said a group of bloggers met earlier this year to discuss challenging Harman in a primary, weeks before the recent revelations. He said many in the blogging community would like a fellow blogger, John Amato, to challenge Harman and that Amato is considering it.

Winograd said that she would step aside for the right candidate, and that she’s taking up the mantle at least for now.

“I don’t know who else will answer the call, if not me,” she said. “People with great name recognition and track records in public office are not going to take her on.”

I think Marcy feels the duty to run.  At the same time, she agreed that there needs to be one progressive alternative to Harman.  But my sense from people in the district is that Harman is unlikely to try another re-election campaign.  Even the above-mentioned NYT article refers to this.

While the two women do not display overt hostility, Ms. Harman seems to have never quite gotten over the slight. Colleagues say that since Ms. Pelosi, 69, thwarted her ambitions for a more prominent role on security issues, Ms. Harman, 63, has grown weary of Congress and has been eyeing a post in the Obama administration, perhaps as an ambassador.

This tracks with everything I’ve heard from locals.  She wanted the Intelligence Committee chair, and failing that she wanted an Administration job, and failing that she wants out.

There would be a whole host of elected officials who would jump in if Harman retired.  Ted Lieu, the Assemblyman in this district, could be enticed away from his Attorney General campaign.  City Councilwoman Janice Hahn would take a look.  And there would be others.  But if Harman stays in, none of these electeds would run, avoiding what would be an expensive primary.  Harman is the richest member of Congress and has no problem spending her own money to keep her seat.

Either way, there will be a contested race in CA-36 in June 2010.  And I do believe that a primary would feature only one major challenger.  The question is, who would that be?

California’s Capitulation Caucus

The following California Democrats caved on retroactive immunity and disregarded their oath to, “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign or domestic”:

Joe Baca, Howard Berman, Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Jane Harman, Jerry McNerney, Nancy Pelosi, Brad Sherman, Adam Schiff, Ellen Tauscher

Pete Stark did not vote. This is the list of those who are potential targets of the Blue America PAC vs Retroactive Immunity which as of now has raised $310,673 to, “fund accountability for congressmembers supporting retroactive immunity and warrantless wiretaps.” This money isn’t going to send thank you cards to the members who did defend the constitution, this is primary money and cold cash to dump Steny Hoyer from leadership (Rahm Emanuel also capitulated).

As the battle moves to the Senate, all eyes are on Barack Obama nationally and Dianne Feinstein locally [(202) 224-3841].

As for 2010 primaries, it will be interesting to see what comes out of this. Carole Migden’s 3rd place finish showed that entrenched politics matters less in a modern media environment. Ellen Tauscher is again practically begging to be primaried and in that district she’s walking on thin ice. Joe Baca deserves particular scorn as the only Californian to sign the Blue Dog letter to Pelosi pushing capitulation (and a primary of Baca could probably receive significant institutional support from former members of the Hispanic Caucus). McNerney has outdone himself in contracting a full-blown case of Potomic Fever during his first term, every time he makes a move I think about asking for a refund. And Harman and Berman voting to cover-up warrantless wiretapping isn’t going to do much to quell the rumors that they are pushing this because they are worried about their own culpability on the issue.

If you live in one of this districts, please call your member and ask them why. Comments and diaries with responses are highly encouraged.

What To Look For Tonight

(I’ll be posting some pictures at this flickr set. I also started a Flickr group if you want to add any photos. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Well, primary day is here.  If you’re reading this and have an interest in California politics, GO VOTE if you haven’t already.  Then, here’s a handy list of what to expect tonight and what signs to look for that would portend positive results for Democrats in November:

What will turnout be like?: In the key districts where we have the opportunity to flip seats, I’m going to be looking at how energized the Democratic electorate is.  Most of the Republican incumbents are running unopposed or with token competition, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.  But if Congressional challengers like Bill Durston or Russ Warner or Charlie Brown or Debbie Cook can run up a big percentage of registered voters today, it’ll show their strength among their base of supporters.  In addition, check the turnout in AD-80, AD-78, AD-10, AD-15, and SD-19.  Those races have no incumbent running on either side, and all are currently in Republican hands.  If more Democrats turn out, it’s a pretty good sign.

The write-in and the recall: I don’t think anyone expects the recall of Jeff Denham to succeed, but given that there’s been virtually no spending on the “Yes” side since Don Perata short-circuited the process and “Yacht Dog” Democrats Cathleen Gagliani and Nicole Parra rushed to Denham’s side, it’ll be interesting to see just how much support the recall gets in this plurality-Democratic district.  As for SD-15, Dennis Morris has made a furious rush to gather enough support to get the roughly 3,600 write-in votes needed to reach the November ballot.  And we know that Abel Maldonado cross-filed with his own write-in campaign, so his dear Democratic mother had a chance to vote for him.  Riiiight.  If you’re in SD-15, PLEASE VOTE FOR DENNIS MORRIS.

PDA’s strength: There are a lot of PDA (Progressive Democrats of America)-endorsed candidates throughout the state, but there’s little success expected from them.  This needs to be a moment where the activist fervor needs to be channeled into electoral victory.  I think the test case is CA-24, where Mary Pallant, a founding member of the LA chapter of PDA, is running for Congress against 2 rivals in the primary.  Jill Martinez was the 2006 nominee and has some name recognition, but people in the Ventura County-area district I talked to cannot recall one mailer or robocall or piece of material sent by Martinez all year.  Pallant has been doing a lot of voter contact, and in a low-turnout primary, she should be able to win the nomination if PDA really has any electoral muscle whatsoever.  We’ll see.

The primary is the general: There are plenty of seats in the legislature where this is the case.  Obviously, Calitics has been focused on SD-03 in San Francisco, SD-23 in Santa Monica and points north, AD-40 in the San Fernando Valley, and AD-27 in the Santa Cruz region.  But there are actually a dozen or so more as well, and many have gotten fairly nasty, some to general-election levels of nastiness.  The Senate race between Rod Wright and Mervyn Dymally is one big example.  Look at this ad:

The kahuna primaries: For Congress, there’s the race in CA-04 between Tom McClintock and Doug Ose, which actually made The New York Times.  What I’m hearing is that, despite Ose’s efforts to buy the seat, McClintock’s going to take this.  There is also the AD-80 race with Greg Pettis, Manuel Perez, Rick Gonzales and Richard Gutierrez, which will be competitive between Perez and Pettis.  And the LA County Board of Supervisors race between Bernard Parks and Mark Ridley-Thomas (I saw several Parks commercials last night).  For many of these primaries, there isn’t any polling and it’s hard to know just where things will go.

We’ll have all of this for you tonight, so come on back.

We’re marching on ABC/Disney in Burbank today – armed with flag pins!

UPDATE: (Bob) I just got off the phone with David Dayen for the report from the ground. It was kinda tough to hear because all of the horns honking in the background. He said there was a great crowd, KTLA is interviewing a number of them, and they are having a lot of fun passing out the lapel pins. Also, he loved the fact that a Burbank Police Officer came by and told them he was their officer for the night and if they had any problems (with ABC or Disney) to give him a call. I wish I was there, if you can make it they’ll be out there until 7PM.

OK, so everyone’s frustrated with the content-free, brainless ABC News debate the other night.  Chuck Todd actually gets it wrong – it’s not about rabid Obama partisans rising up to hammer ABC, it’s about thinking people rising up and deciding not to accept the thin gruel the media tries to feed us anymore.

The moderators are unrepentant and congenitally wired to not get it.  So we’re going to have to take to the streets – the mean streets of Burbank, California.  We want to know if ABC/Disney executives can pass the Gibson/Stephanopoulos flag pin litmus test – it’s obviously the most important issue facing the nation, so are they sufficiently patriotic?  If not, we’re willing to help them out.

I called up my friends at the Courage Campaign and told them we were uniquely positioned not just to throw things at our TV screen but to do something about this.  The ABC/Disney headquarters is right there in Burbank, and prior to the Path to 9/11 airing, we actually protested out in front of there.

They obviously didn’t get the message, and I figured out the reason why – our flag pin deficit!  Nobody takes you seriously unless you bring 350 symbols of patriotism along with you.

Well, we got ’em.  And now we need your help.

Today at 4:00, we’re going to meet at ABC/Disney’s headquarters in Burbank to protest and pass out flag pins to employees leaving their Disney corporate office.

Your mission: Ask ABC/Disney employees whether they can pass their own flag-pin litmus test: “Are you patriotic enough to wear a flag-pin?”  Obviously they don’t want to be considered as a bunch of America-hating terrorists by their own network news anchors, so of course they require the pin, the shield of immunity from all questions of patriotism.  And maybe we’ll give them a couple extras to give to George and Charlie.

If you’re in the area and available, at 4 p.m. please join me and the Courage Campaign and your fellow activists at ABC’s Disney Studios in Burbank in front of the West Alameda Gate, between S. Buena Vista and Keystone Streets (CLICK HERE FOR A MAP). We’re going to be there until about 7 p.m.

I’ll just leave you with this because it’s fun.

(ultimately these things don’t change a lot of minds; I don’t expect ABC to issue an on-air apology or anything.  But they provide an outlet for frustrations, and create a moment of accountability.  If you or someone you know is in the press, please send them by, too.)