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Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs

by: David Dayen

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 17:08:34 PM PST


The nation actually had a good employment month in October.  The economy added 166,000 jobs, mainly in the professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality sectors, and even construction was largely unchanged.

On the other hand, California lost 15,800 jobs, and year-over-year unemployment is up a full point to 5.6% (and that of course doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work).  That's also a full point over the national average.  The apologists that call themselves economists in this article are trying to spin the numbers but it won't wash.

October's decline in employment, the biggest since the loss of 14,000 jobs in July, confirms that the state's economy is slowing, said Stephen Levy, who directs the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

But "this is a slowdown that the nation is participating in," Levy said. (Then why did the US add 166,000 jobs in the same month? -ed.) [...]

Levy cautioned against making "a big deal" of the overall job loss figures.

"None of this is like when we lost our aerospace industry -- that was permanent -- or when the Internet bubble burst," he said.

The current job losses do not signify any loss of strength in the state's key economic sectors, he said. "It's not like our economy is threatened from this."

Really?  You mean the construction sector isn't losing strength due to the housing meltdown?  And that isn't driving economic trouble in all other sectors, as the end of refinancing and redecorating new homes depresses consumer spending?

Ever hear of trash-outs?

"An old wooden house along Genevieve Street in San Bernardino was the scene recently of a trash pickup for tenants who lost their home to a bank foreclosure."

"On Thursday morning, the driveway was piled up with appliances, furniture and clothes that were littered everywhere - a telltale sign of a family that recently lived there. An old gas stove with a skillet full of dust was found. In the back yard, there were mattresses, a microwave, two mangled couches and a bulky refrigerator."

"Foreclosed homes all over the Inland Empire are turning into what Lisa Carvalho calls 'trash-outs' - wooden and stucco carcasses with piles of junk left behind by former tenants."

"The High Desert offers even more interesting tales. The area is full of tract homes in subdivisions that have stacks of furniture piled inside every room, she said."

"'These typically look like they're occupied, but they're not trashed,' she said about these homes. '(The owners) just walk away and wash their hands of it.'"

Distressed properties (which are usually foreclosures or short sales) made up one out of every five homes listed for sale in Orange County last week.  And it's hard to even say who's in worse shape, homeowners, realtors, or financial institutions stuck with mortgages that will be defaulted without delay.

This is a crisis, and economists who keep their heads in the sand aren't serving whoever it is they're supposed to serve.  The legislation that would have at least helped to address this was blocked by Senate Republicans last week.  Where California is able to go in the next decade relies on stabilizing this housing situation.

David Dayen :: Looming Recession Update: Just Shedding Jobs
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Our Wile E. Coyote Moment (0.00 / 0)
These economists, as you note, are not credible. These are the same folks who just a year ago said that the housing bubble wouldn't burst, who six months ago said that we'd have a small contraction and a soft landing. Others, like Nouriel Roubini, have been consistently right in their view that the housing bubble would in fact burst and would cause a "serious recession":

It is increasingly clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months. Those of us who warned for the last 12 months about a combination of a worsening housing recession, a severe credit crunch and financial meltdown, high oil prices and a saving-less and debt-burdened consumers being on the ropes causing an economy-wide recession were repeatedly rebuffed the consensus view about a soft landing given the presumed resilience of the US consumer.

But the evidence is now building that an ugly recession is inevitable.

Meanwhile, California is at its Wile E. Coyote moment - aware that we're over the cliff, and that there's nowhere to go but down, but we haven't yet seen the collapse happen. Yesterday's SF Chronicle went up to Fairfield to examine the situation there:

Housing in this bustling Solano County city is in an outright depression. Home prices are plummeting, buyers are running for cover and, in September and October, not a single home building permit was issued, the first time that's happened in the memory of city officials.

Yet, despite the wrenching collapse of its housing sector, Fairfield is holding up pretty well - at least so far.

"People still seem to be employed. There's still a lot going on," said Stu Reid, owner of the home remodeling business Kitchen Tune-Up. "While people may be talking more cautiously, they're still going out to dinner, still playing golf. You still see long lines at Starbucks."

That's right now. The question on everybody's mind is how long can the city's economy stay healthy with housing in tatters. Fairfield, it seems, is a city on the knife's edge.

(Of course, Reid didn't mention that Starbucks has experienced declining sales for the first time in its history, or that CA has shed so many jobs.)

The difference between us and Wile E. Coyote is, aside from the fact that we're not animated by Warner Bros., that we're going into the abyss even if we refuse to look down. This is going to be the worst economic downturn many of us have experienced, possibly the worst since the 1930s.

And we have a political system that appears completely unable to respond to the looming disaster.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


the next budget is going to be ugly (8.00 / 2)
because of the plummetting tax revenues. democrats should be thinking seriously of how they are going to deal with that, for next year and as long as the imminent depression lasts.

because you can bet the republicans are rubbing their hands with glee just thinking about where to make cuts.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat


Yep (8.00 / 1)
California has for 30 years steadily eviscerated its ability to respond to the coming crisis. There are some possibilities which I'll explore in a post later tonight or tomorrow. But we've lost a LOT of time already.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

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