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Moveon Members Vote to Endorse Today

by: Bob Brigham

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:53:26 AM PST


Moveon has 575,000 California activsts:

Spurred by John Edwards's withdrawal from the race on Wednesday, MoveOn surveyed a sample of its members to gauge endorsement interest, according to a source with knowledge of the group's operations. Then MoveOn set a deadline of 11 am Thursday for members to back a virtual endorsement vote. If a majority support the idea, virtual balloting will run overnight, open only to the group's 3.2 million activists, and an endorsement could be announced by Friday.

Your ballot will be hitting your inbox shortly. Looking at the movement in the Daily Kos poll, I can see Obama meeting the revised, 2/3 threshold.

Bob Brigham :: Moveon Members Vote to Endorse Today
UPDATE: Here's the email, they are also doing a running phone verification sample to ensure nobody's cheating:

Dear MoveOn Member,

We have a big decision to make. Yesterday, John Edwards left the race for president, leaving just two major Democratic candidates. And next Tuesday, over half of MoveOn's members will go to the polls in the biggest primary day in American history.

Right now, we have an opportunity to influence who our next president is-3.2 million MoveOn members together. When we surveyed over 200,000 MoveOn members yesterday to see if we should go forward with an endorsement process, a big majority said "yes."

So it's time to ask the question: Who should MoveOn endorse in the Democratic primary? If two-thirds of MoveOn members support one candidate, we'll campaign for that candidate together. Here's your ballot-vote today:

[LINK]

The above link is your personal presidential endorsement ballot for the Democratic nomination-it can be used only by you. It's important to vote immediately. Voting lasts until 11 a.m. Eastern tomorrow-Friday, February 1st. Then the ballots are counted, and we'll announce whether anyone met the 2/3 threshold.

If we can agree on a candidate by tomorrow, our endorsement will give that candidate a significant boost going into Super Tuesday, just a few days away. In addition to mobilizing MoveOn members to vote, our endorsement would mean that we campaign actively, as a unified movement, to elect a candidate who will represent us.

Each week over the past year, randomly selected MoveOn members filled out a survey about which candidate they supported. For months, MoveOn members were divided among many candidates-and many of us were waiting to see who would take bold progressive positions on the issues. But with Edwards dropping out, it's down to just two major candidates. And especially with Super Tuesday right around the corner, many progressives are making up their minds. Now's the time we can band together to make a difference.
Here's how MoveOn's endorsement process works:

   * Everyone who is a MoveOn member as of noon Eastern on Wednesday, January 30th, and will be at least 18 years old by November 4th, 2008 gets one vote.
   * Voting lasts now through 11:00 a.m. Eastern tomorrow-Friday, February 1st. This will allow MoveOn to make an endorsement in time to make a difference on Super Tuesday.
   * MoveOn will only endorse a candidate if more than 2/3 of our members select that candidate. These are the same rules MoveOn has applied in contested Democratic congressional primaries. If MoveOn endorses a candidate, we will immediately start campaigning for that candidate.
   * If no candidate receives more than 2/3 of the votes cast, MoveOn will encourage members to vote and play an active role in the primary process, but will not endorse at this time.
   * We are taking extra security measures to protect the integrity of the vote. A random sampling of voters will get verification phone calls after voting. We've also ensured that each ballot is unique to one MoveOn member-so forwarding links will not allow more people to vote.

Click here to vote: [link]

2008 will be an exciting year. Together, we have an opportunity to make a big difference.

Thanks for all you do,

-Eli, Wes, Joan, Justin, Adam G., Adam R., Ilyse, Karin, Nita, Noah, Marika, Laura, Peter, Anna, Matt, Daniel, Carrie, Tanya, and the MoveOn.org Political Action Team
 Thursday, January 31st, 2008

P.S. If you want more information about the candidates before voting, one good source is the Democratic debate on CNN tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

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The MoveOn poll is bogus (0.00 / 0)
You can vote for Clinton or Obama but you cannot vote to direct MoveOn to issue no endorsement.

Let's say 90% of MoveOn members prefer no endorsement. They can't vote. Of the remaining 10%, say more than 2/3 vote for Obama. So MoveOn says, "We've endorsed Obama!" That's BS.

There are reasons for wanting to refrain from making an endorsement, just as there are reason to endorse. But leaving the former members on the sidelines is not democracy.


they did that (0.00 / 0)
They actually did a poll of a statistically significant random sample of members asking if they should have an endorsement poll at all. Apparently it came out yes.  

[ Parent ]
I was unaware of that (0.00 / 0)
But maybe we should expand that concept. To save time and money for the general election, why don't we just allow a statistically significant random sample of registered voters to vote?

[ Parent ]
you don't think what they did (0.00 / 0)
was reasonable?

really?


[ Parent ]
I don't know (0.00 / 0)
Not being an insider I don't know why they did it that way, it may be an economic decision or a desire not to bug so many of their members. Since I didn't get to vote it sure wasn't fair (ha).

Seriously, I don't think an endorsement from MoveOn is really going to influence the process much.


[ Parent ]
you may be right about influence (0.00 / 0)
given that it seems extremely likely that MoveOn members have ALREADY been active for their favorite candidate, it isn't like their entire membership was this completely dormant giant waiting to be awoken. I know I have already been doing stuff.

But they do have a lot of cash and infrastructure for phone banking and whatnot. It wouldn't be nothing.


[ Parent ]
they've had weekly tracking polls (0.00 / 0)
Looking at the graph, almost 50% in the last public set went to a candidate who has since dropped out, 10% undecided, and Clinton only trailing Obama by a couple of points.

[ Parent ]
very interesting! (0.00 / 0)
Thanks for the link. So lets see...about 23% Edwards and 17% Kucinich, so lets say for fun that all of those get added to Obama's 22%, that's 72%. So Obama has a steep hill to climb to get to 2/3. 10% undecided and maybe another 10% other (Dodd, Biden, etc) provide a tiny bit of additional wiggle room. I'd be surprised if he can pull it off, but it isn't inconceivable.  

[ Parent ]
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