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John W. McCain Really Thinks He Can Win California

by: David Dayen

Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 14:40:13 PM PDT


I've always thought that the repeated assertions by the McCain campaign that California is somehow in play, despite all polling to the contrary, was just bluster, an effort to get Democrats to throw money at a perceived problem, reminiscent of George Bush campaigning in the state in 2000 as a way to unnerve Al Gore.  And the Huffington Post has obtained a Power Point presentation from the McCain campaign that suggests this is exactly what they're going to try.  This slide includes the states McCain thinks he can contest in November.

The fine print reads: "McCain's unique appeal to independent voters creates opportunity in CA."

Those must be the independent voters that have a 42/48 favorable/unfavorable rating of McCain, compared to 72/19 for Obama in the latest Field Poll.  The independents who preferred Obama by 30 points in the last LA Times poll.

This is a common trick by the Republicans, trying to bait Democrats into spending money here.  All I can say is, please, please, John McCain, come campaign in the Golden State early and often.  I'll do the advance work for you.    And be sure you go up with a week or two of commercials at about $3 million per.  I can think of no better way for you to waste your money back up your bold statements about victory in California than to focus all your efforts on this electoral prize.

And while you're at it, pay a little attention to your own home state of Arizona, which you acknolwedge might be a loss.

David Dayen :: John W. McCain Really Thinks He Can Win California
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Don't forget (0.00 / 0)
That he's a natural fit in the Southwest. That'll carry a lot of weight in Santa Monica.

I'm proud to work for Barbara Boxer

Also (0.00 / 0)
Is Nevada Southwest now?

I'm proud to work for Barbara Boxer

[ Parent ]
las vegas certainly is (0.00 / 0)
i'd tend to lump the state in with NM and AZ.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

[ Parent ]
I love the tag for NH (0.00 / 0)
"McCain's history of success puts NH on the map."  First, what success? Maybe it's McCain's success in winning the NH primary by a razor-thin 1% with a whopping 68 percent of Republicans voting for some other candidate?  

Second, why is NH the only state that cares about this supposed success?  I guess the other states are measuring their candidates on his failures.


in 2000, i would have given this some credence (0.00 / 0)
but by now, there's no way in hell mccain has a glimmer of a chance.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

Yup, California as a swing state! (8.00 / 2)
Let's see, Senator, I bet you can win a few votes with some appearances, a little gladhandling around the state. Make sure you visit all of our major population centers. It won't be more than 4, maybe 5, weeks of campaigning in the state.  That should bring you to within 15 points.

I'm proud to work for Kamala Harris for AG.

[ Parent ]
Sure it is! (0.00 / 0)
Come and spend lots of money in California McSame! Didn't Bush try that last time? How many points did he lose by?

Please, McBush! (8.00 / 1)
I dare you to spend your money here! That would make Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and others less worrisome for us!

My ramblings...

California Dreaming (0.00 / 0)
If you listen to the EDT press long enough you would believe it too. It would be totally off the wall except that they show OR & WA as tossups also. Independents are not the same as centrists which is what the media believes- they are just unaffiliated with parties at the moment. Also they have this fixation that Latinos will never vote for a Black candidate- they can't fathom that Latinos just felt a
admiration and loyalty to the Clintons which is not in effect now that she's withdrawn.

in fact (0.00 / 0)
in the latest WSJ-NBC poll, Obama has a 62-28 lead among Hispanics.

[ Parent ]
2000? '04? (0.00 / 0)
Isn't that roughly the same percentage that Bush got? around 35-40?  Or do I have it completely wrong?

In any case, we need to aim to outperform Bush in the Hispanic if we're going to put some of these SW states in play.  


[ Parent ]
no (0.00 / 0)
Actually Obama is doing substantially better than Kerry's 60-40 split at this stage.  The numbers in this most recent poll (backed up by an LAT poll not too long ago) track to about 68-32 if you average everything up to 100.

[ Parent ]
Having lived both coasts (8.00 / 1)
Nobody on the east coast has the faintest idea what to do with the west coast crazies. The whole notion that there could be a non-linear distribution of voters is about the same as a flat world or rain falling up.

I'm proud to work for Barbara Boxer

[ Parent ]
Well... (0.00 / 0)
I am not a big fan of McSame but...

There are two folks in this race at present and you know I just can't see how this is helpful:

'Wait 'til this news gets out.'

But what do I know....I think the DNC are idiots. So don't pay any attention to this.


asdf (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, how dare Obama reach out to groups that don't traditionally support Democrats?

[ Parent ]
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