Two new polls have emerged showing Prop 8 leading. One is a poll commissioned by the No on 8 Committee, the other is from Survey USA:
Earlier polls had shown Proposition 8, which would eradicate the right for same-sex couples to marry in California, trailing by about 5 percentage points. This week, a Lake Research poll paid for by the campaign of 1,051 likely voters showed the proposition winning, with 47 percent saying they supported the measure and 43 percent saying no. The polling period was Sept. 29-Oct. 2. That finding is reinforced by a SurveyUSA poll of 670 likely voters showing the proposition winning 47 percent to 42 percent. That poll was taken Saturday and Sunday. (Boston Edge 10/07/08)
So, can you spot the flaws in these two polls? Well, as somebody who has followed polls for a while and has taken a class or two in statistics, a couple of things jump out. On the Lake Poll, you'd generally like to see the poll completed in three days rather than four. But that's a quibble compared to SUSA taking their poll on a weekend. A weekend audience will get you a far older, and far more conservative audience.
None of that is to say that we shouldn't be worried. The article quotes the campaign as blaming two reasons here. First is the massive spending of the Yes campaign, with most of that being from the Mormon community. It seems the Mormons liked persecution so much that they want to inflict it upon others. At any rate, Yes is outraising No by about $10 million. That's Bad. Very Bad.
Which leads us to the "complacency" reason. Specifically, the No on 8 campaign is saying that queer and queer-friendly communities are now expecting to win and are not working and contributing enough to see this thing through. So people, let's get on this.
Do you want to do something? Why not Fast 4 Equality? Skip a snack for marriage equality! |
