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It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers, complete with links to the complete updated list of registration numbers in each district.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project, Democracy for California, and my blog.
And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.
Edit by Brian: Check the flip for some great info. |
SENATE
8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.
Republicans (4)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin |
|---|
| SD-04 | Sam Aanestad | 33.07% | 44.18% | R+11.11 | | SD-12 | Jeff Denham | 47.33% | 33.41% | D+13.92 | | SD-18 | Roy Ashburn | 31.81% | 47.82% | R+16.01 | | SD-36 | Dennis Hollingsworth | 28.88% | 46.37% | R+17.49 |
Democrats (5)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin |
|---|
| SD-16 | Dean Florez | 49.60% | 33.39% | D+16.21 | | SD-22 | Gilbert Cedillo | 58.88% | 14.97% | D+13.91 | | SD-24 | Gloria Romero | 53.40% | 21.44% | D+31.96 | | SD-34 | Lou Correa | 42.53% | 34.35% | D+8.18 | | SD-40 | Denise Moreno Ducheny | 46.25% | 30.12% | D+16.13 |
ASSEMBLY
17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small).
Republicans (14)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin |
|---|
| AD-03 | Dan Logue | 34.82% | 40.26% | R+5.44 | | AD-05 | Roger Niello | 37.77% | 39.00% | R+1.23 | | AD-25 | Tom Berryhill | 36.88% | 42.39% | R+5.51 | | AD-26 | Bill Berryhill | 41.90% | 39.59% | D+2.31 | | AD-30 | Danny Gilmore | 46.48% | 36.67% | D+9.81 | | AD-33 | Sam Blakeslee | 35.93% | 40.74% | R+4.81 | | AD-36 | Steve Knight | 39.20% | 39.25% | R+0.05 | | AD-37 | Audra Strickland | 35.76% | 41.71% | R+5.95 | | AD-38 | Cameron Smyth | 36.65% | 40.41% | R+3.76 | | AD-63 | Bill Emmerson | 37.69% | 40.80% | R+3.11 | | AD-64 | Brian Nestande | 36.04% | 42.02% | R+5.98 | | AD-65 | Paul Cook | 36.93% | 41.47% | R+4.54 | | AD-68 | Van Tran | 32.63% | 41.90% | R+9.27 | | AD-70 | Chuck DeVore | 30.05% | 43.99% | R+13.94 |
Democrats (15)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin |
|---|
| AD-07 | Noreen Evans | 52.72% | 24.00% | D+28.72 | | AD-09 | Dave Jones | 56.53% | 18.92% | D+37.61 | | AD-10 | Alyson Huber | 39.18% | 39.61% | R+0.43 | | AD-11 | Tom Torlakson | 53.81% | 22.54% | D+31.27 | | AD-15 | Joan Buchanan | 40.41% | 36.45% | D+3.96 | | AD-20 | Alberto Torrico | 48.53% | 20.37% | D+18.16 | | AD-21 | Ira Ruskin | 47.17% | 26.91% | D+20.26 | | AD-23 | Joe Coto | 51.42% | 19.18% | D+32.24 | | AD-31 | Juan Arambula | 48.90% | 34.28% | D+14.62 | | AD-35 | Pedro Nava | 48.05% | 28.19% | D+19.86 | | AD-47 | Karen Bass | 64.96% | 11.36% | D+53.60 | | AD-50 | Hector De La Torre | 61.62% | 16.59% | D+45.03 | | AD-76 | Lori Saldaña | 41.92% | 27.01% | D+14.91 | | AD-78 | Martin Block | 42.86% | 31.89% | D+10.97 | | AD-80 | Manuel Perez | 44.99% | 37.17% | D+7.82 |
Since it's never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.
The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra's husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.) The 36th is edging closer and closer to a Dem edge in registration and with enough support we can pick this one up. The 38th is also ripe for the picking.
Other areas ripe for the picking include AD-33 on the Central Coast, and in the Inland Empire/Riverside County districts 63-65. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can't wait for 2010! |
