CA-10: Ellen Tauscher Headed to the State Dept

Joan Buchanon lives in CD-11 I believe (0.00 / 0)

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by: gfull @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 11:45:17 AM CDT

That's not actually a disqualification to run in CA-10 (0.00 / 0)

At least not under the law.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

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by: Robert Cruickshank @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 11:46:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You are correct (0.00 / 0)

You are correct it doesn't disqualify her to run legally.  I think as a practical matter however, it disqualifies her politically (assuming either Mark or Tom steps up).

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by: gfull @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 12:25:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

let's note a few things (0.00 / 0)

Ellen Tauscher is a terrible choice for a position where the President actually has a pretty good record.  This was John Bolton's job in the first Bush term, and while I don't expect Tauscher to screw up quite as badly she would still be a voice for the foreign policy establishment and against the newer spirit of diplomacy and smart power.

That's not so bad because she's likely to do as she's told.  What is more distressing is that all of the potential candidates from this position, naturally, come from the legislature.  Which would mean one less seat in the Assembly or Senate at a time when there will be yet another budget fight, making the Yacht Party leverage that much more acute (it'll be even more so if Gil Cedillo manages to win in CA-32).  By the time all of these special elections and filled seats wind down, we're looking at 2010 before a full legislature is seated.

And the idea that someone "more progressive" will functionally matter in a majoritarian House does not make much sense to me.  Ron Kind, the likely New Democrat successor, is more conservative than Tauscher is.  And a Buchanan win would mean no real ideological shift whatsoever.

I just cannot get excited about a bad lawmaker going into the executive branch, making it harder to pass a budget for a year with little discernible change for the better in Congress.

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by: David Dayen @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 12:07:42 PM CDT

Welllll..... (0.00 / 0)

As my name says, I live in Solano County, the northern part of CD 10.  In 2001, when redistricting added us to her seat, she very publicly stated she didn't want to represent us.  Since then, the only time she comes north of the bridge is to pal around with her business cronies.  She doesn't care about this portion of the district at all.

Nothing says we have to go with a current state legislator.  Perhaps there are qualified councilmembers or supervisors?  I don't know CoCo well enough to judge, but I am curious to hear from residents there.

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by: SolanoVoter @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 12:43:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Think you're missing some candidates (0.00 / 0)

David, I don't think it's necessarily true that "all of the potential candidates...come from the legislature." Two thirds of the voters are in Contra Costa County and so there might be room for a County supervisor to make a run for the seat.      

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by: Matt Lockshin @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 13:37:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm basing that (0.00 / 0)

on what was written here.  This part of the state is not my area of expertise and I will defer to others. I do think it's a real problem, however, in this pathetic system where every vote in the legislature counts, to pull someone out of that legislature for a special election.  There are consequences.

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by: David Dayen @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 14:37:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Point well made (0.00 / 0)

Especially if it is someone like Joan Buchanon, who we just got into a formerly "red" seat.  It would be a shame to see her leave a vulnerable seat.

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by: gfull @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 16:42:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Would the new member of Congress support a nuclear weapons free world? (0.00 / 0)

Rep. Tauscher has repeatedly influenced the debate on nuclear weapons issues through chairing the Strategic Forces subcommittee in the House Armed Services Committee, and because CA-10 houses the Livermore Labs, it's likely her successor will also wield influence on nuclear weapons policy.

A key question is how these potential candidates feel about nuclear weapons. President Obama has pledged to "set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it....they will take several steps down the long road toward eliminating nuclear weapons" like working with Russia to reduce both of our stockpiles. Obama's support for steps towards a nuclear weapons free world is a fresh approach to US nuclear weapons policy that can result in real security gains. It's important that any future representative from CA-10 fully embraces taking steps towards a nuclear weapons free world.

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by: cbcbcb @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:56:58 PM CDT

uh (0.00 / 0)

wouldn't it be more important that the under secretary of state for arms control and international security supports a nuclear-weapons free world, which if it's Tauscher is most certainly not the case?  

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by: David Dayen @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 16:06:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Special Election lineup (0.00 / 0)

DeSaulnier and Buchanan are the only ones who live in the district.  Obviously, anyone can run, but the sophisticated voter may take issue.  Charge a -2pt hit on election day to anyone not from within the 10th.

Other candidates being discussed include Joe Camel, I mean Canciamilla, County Supervisor Federal Glover, and Tom Torlakson.  On the Republican side people are talking about Houston.  It's a Democratic seat, so not likely he could win.

The key to congressional races isn't how much money you have, an area where Torlakson and Canciamilla would dominate, but how well you can raise new money.  None of their state accounts are transferable.

In the money race Joan Buchanan would have a big leg up.  Emily's list has a great ability to draw donors and she was an excellent fundraiser in her Assembly race.  It also follows a pattern for Northern California seats that are strongly supportive of women for federal office.

Look at her Assembly team... It was largely campaign staffers and consultants with experience campaigning and fundraising in congressional races.  Her consultant, Mary Hughes, is also Tauscher's consultant.

Finally, we know she's a hard worker.  If she can be up at 1:30 in the morning responding to constituent emails she can sure out-campaign just about anybody.  Her years on the school board and now in the Assembly make her a perfect candiate.

So, look for Buchanan.  If it is her plus a couple guys she will be the prohibitive favorite.

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by: Andmaude @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 17:03:36 PM CDT

My initial take on the new race... (0.00 / 0)

*Buchanan just raised nearly $2.5M for the assembly seat she just won which largely overlaps Tauscher's...money talks and she knows where it is.
*Of her 15+ campaigns Buchanan has been in, I think that most have been heavily contested .... her apparent opponents have never had to run a tough race...they have safe seats.
*Buchanans's geographic powerbase almost exactly overlaps Tauscher's...Tom T and Mark D's are in the Delta area (George Miller's district).
*Buchanan's consultants and fundraising apparatus that just helped her win her assembly seat are the same as the team that put Tauscher in Congress over Bill Baker - a very contested race...these folks are the 'A Team'and are winners.
*Buchanan is a socially moderate, fiscally conservative Dem...the exact profile which wins Tauscher's district
*Buchanan, like Tauscher is a woman.
*In the recent CA budget crisis Buchanan was the only member of CA assembly who took a pay cut --- showing leadership.
*Buchanan does not have a long wacky voting record which can be attacked.
*the teachers love Buchanan (for good reason as she turned around the San Ramon Valley School District)...and the CTA wants Tom T. to be state superintendent....and he has been running for that statewide office for a while.
If others have a take, pls advise.

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by: TobyfromOrinda @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 22:55:11 PM CDT