{"id":11372,"date":"2010-03-25T06:02:55","date_gmt":"2010-03-25T06:02:55","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2010-03-25T06:05:44","modified_gmt":"2010-03-25T06:05:44","slug":"outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-postfiling-deadline-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2010\/03\/25\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-postfiling-deadline-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 &#8211; Post-Filing Deadline Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.<\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.swingstateproject.com\/diary\/6644\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-postfiling-deadline-edition\">Swing State Project<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.democracyforcalifornia.com\/blog\/archives\/002853.html\">Democracy for California<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Breaking news<\/b>: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca03_109.gif\">CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.46%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.04%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+0.58<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca24_109.gif\">CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Elton Gallegly<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.53%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.75<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca25_109.gif\">CA-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Buck McKeon<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.42%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+2.16<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca26_109.gif\">CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">David Dreier<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.64%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.15%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.51<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca44_109.gif\">CA-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Ken Calvert<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.67%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.47%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+7.80<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca45_109.gif\">CA-45<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Mary Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.02%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.50%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+3.48<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca48_109.gif\">CA-48<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">John Campbell<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">29.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">44.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.00<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca50_109.gif\">CA-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.33%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.58<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Competitive and\/or open state legislature districts are over the flip&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats\/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2\/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats\/29 Republicans\/1 Independent (who is term-limited)\/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2\/3.<\/p>\n<p><b><u>SENATE<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Republicans (4)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD04.pdf\">SD-04<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Sam Aanestad<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">32.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">43.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+11.05<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+11.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD12.pdf\">SD-12<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Jeff Denham<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">49.13%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">32.03%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+17.10<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+17.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD18.pdf\">SD-18<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Roy Ashburn<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.76%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">47.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.60<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+23.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD36.pdf\">SD-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dennis Hollingsworth<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">28.97%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">45.60%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+16.63<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+14.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Democrats (5)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD16.pdf\">SD-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Dean Florez<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">50.41%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">32.00%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+18.41<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+19.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD22.pdf\">SD-22<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Gilbert Cedillo<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">58.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">14.39%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+43.52<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+58.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD24.pdf\">SD-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Gloria Romero<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">53.53%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">20.72%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+32.81<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+41.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD34.pdf\">SD-34<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Lou Correa<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">44.22%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">32.49%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+11.73<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+16.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD40.pdf\">SD-40<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Denise Ducheny<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">46.47%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">28.84%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+17.63<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+25.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>ASSEMBLY<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Republicans (16)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD03.pdf\">AD-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Logue<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.52%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.39<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+1.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD05.pdf\">AD-05<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Roger Niello<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.97%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">38.05%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+0.92<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD25.pdf\">AD-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Tom Berryhill<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.35%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.70%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.35<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+7.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD26.pdf\">AD-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Bill Berryhill<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">42.35%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">38.88%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+3.47<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD30.pdf\">AD-30<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Danny Gilmore<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">46.12%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">36.12%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+10.00<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD33.pdf\">AD-33<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Sam Blakeslee<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.89%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.47%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.58<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD36.pdf\">AD-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Steve Knight<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.92%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.29%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+0.37<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD37.pdf\">AD-37<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Audra Strickland<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.87%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.04%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.17<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD38.pdf\">AD-38<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Cameron Smyth<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.62%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+2.79<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD63.pdf\">AD-63<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Bill Emmerson<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.96%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.01%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+2.05<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD64.pdf\">AD-64<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Nestande<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.08%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.95%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.87<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD65.pdf\">AD-65<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Paul Cook<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.29%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.38<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD68.pdf\">AD-68<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Van Tran<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">32.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.00<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+2.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD70.pdf\">AD-70<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Chuck DeVore<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.12%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.93%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+12.81<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD74.pdf\">AD-74<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Martin Garrick<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.88%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.17%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+10.29<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD75.pdf\">AD-75<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Nathan Fletcher<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.64%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.94<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Democrats (15)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD07.pdf\">AD-07<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Noreen Evans<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">52.94%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">23.47%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+29.47<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+43.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD09.pdf\">AD-09<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Dave Jones<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">56.92%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">18.55%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+38.37<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+49.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD10.pdf\">AD-10<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Alyson Huber<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">39.41%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.18%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+0.23<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD15.pdf\">AD-15<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Joan Buchanan<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">40.65%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">35.70%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+4.95<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+16.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD20.pdf\">AD-20<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Alberto Torrico<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">48.74%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">19.90%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+28.84<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+42.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD21.pdf\">AD-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Ira Ruskin<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">47.61%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">26.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+21.21<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+45.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD23.pdf\">AD-23<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Joe Coto<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">51.59%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">18.60%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+32.99<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+44.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD31.pdf\">AD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Juan Arambula<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">50.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">32.35%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+18.05<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+26.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD35.pdf\">AD-35<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Pedro Nava<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">48.03%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">27.56%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+20.47<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+35.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD47.pdf\">AD-47<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Karen Bass<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">64.89%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">11.14%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+53.75<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+71.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD50.pdf\">AD-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Hector De La Torre<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">61.99%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">15.82%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+46.17<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+55.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD76.pdf\">AD-76<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Lori Salda\u00f1a<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">41.94%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">26.52%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+15.42<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+34.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD78.pdf\">AD-78<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Martin Block<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">42.97%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">30.97%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+12.00<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+21.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD80.pdf\">AD-80<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Manuel Perez<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">45.74%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">35.25%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+10.49<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+20.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.<\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.swingstateproject.com\/diary\/6644\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-postfiling-deadline-edition\">Swing State Project<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.democracyforcalifornia.com\/blog\/archives\/002853.html\">Democracy for California<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Breaking news<\/b>: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table class=\"sortable\" border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca03_109.gif\">CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.46%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.04%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+0.58<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca24_109.gif\">CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Elton Gallegly<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.53%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.75<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca25_109.gif\">CA-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Buck McKeon<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.42%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+2.16<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca26_109.gif\">CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">David Dreier<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.64%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.15%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.51<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca44_109.gif\">CA-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Ken Calvert<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.67%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.47%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+7.80<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca45_109.gif\">CA-45<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Mary Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.02%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.50%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+3.48<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca48_109.gif\">CA-48<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">John Campbell<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">29.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">44.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.00<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca50_109.gif\">CA-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.33%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.58<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Competitive and\/or open state legislature districts are over the flip&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[4468,486,96,563,362,488,278,1667,13,752,3483],"class_list":["post-11372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-4468","tag-486","tag-96","tag-563","tag-362","tag-488","tag-278","tag-1667","tag-13","tag-752","tag-3483"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2Xq","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11372\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}