{"id":11373,"date":"2010-03-25T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2010-03-25T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2010-03-25T06:05:37","modified_gmt":"2010-03-25T06:05:37","slug":"ppics-trendconfirming-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2010\/03\/25\/ppics-trendconfirming-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"PPIC’s Trend-Confirming Poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fresh on the heels of a batch of Field Polls, the Public Policy Institute of California is out with its latest big all-in-one statewide poll<\/a>. And it confirms some of the trends we’ve already identified in the recent batch of Field Polls, including:<\/p>\n

Meg Whitman now leads Jerry Brown.<\/strong> PPIC has Whitman up 44-39 over Brown; Field had Whitman up<\/a> 46-43. Steve Poizner is about 50 points behind Whitman in both polls, and as KQED’s John Myers notes<\/a>, Poizner’s immigrant-bashing attempt to dig himself out of that hole is backfiring badly with Latino voters, driving them more strongly into Brown’s arms. At this point it’s hard to see any way Poizner can win this primary. Jerry Brown must prefer being the underdog to Whitman, since he isn’t likely to begin hard campaigning until the summer.<\/p>\n

Boxer is facing a very close re-election battle.<\/strong> PPIC has Boxer up 44-43 over Fiorina (Field had Boxer leading<\/a> 45-44 over Fiorina) and Campbell up 44-43 over Boxer (the same numbers as Field). Considering that the PPIC poll was done before the passage of the health care bill, however, this has to be seen as Boxer’s baseline. Now that she’s got a bill she can bring home to Californians, more Democrats and Boxer-friendly independents may return to the likely voter universe. And since Boxer hasn’t yet begun her campaign, there’s further reason to expect her numbers to improve. But this one will be close. PPIC also shows a closer race between Campbell and Fiorina than Field did.<\/p>\n

Everybody still hates Arnold.<\/strong> PPIC is a bit more favorable to Arnold – they have 64% of all adults and likely voters disapproving of his performance, whereas Field found 71% disapproved<\/a>. Still, it’s further sign that Californians are done with the Governator, and will be glad to see him back in Hollywood for good in 2011.<\/p>\n

Spending cuts still aren’t popular.<\/strong> Unfortunately, PPIC chose not to ask the kind of specific and therefore extremely valuable questions about specific spending cuts that they asked in January<\/a>. But they did find that only 39% of all adults wanted “mostly spending cuts,” with 38% supporting a mix of cuts and new taxes. When they asked about whether “higher taxes and more services” or “lower taxes and fewer services” were preferred, all adults were evenly split (46-45 for higher taxes) but likely voters favored lower taxes, 55-39, again indicating that November 2010 is a turnout election.<\/p>\n

PPIC added a few new things to the mix:<\/p>\n

Majority support for marriage equality.<\/strong> By a 50-45 margin, Californians support same-sex marriage. And a whopping 75% support repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.<\/p>\n

Prop 14 is probably going to pass.<\/strong> In what should be a surprise to nobody, voters are indicating they’ll pass the top-two primary in June, 56% favoring and 27% opposing. 59% of Democrats are supportive, which is unfortunate since Prop 14 is designed to screw Democrats in particular by pushing primary fights out into the general election and attempting to push the party to the right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fresh on the heels of a batch of Field Polls, the Public Policy Institute of California is out with its latest big all-in-one statewide poll<\/a>. And it confirms some of the trends we’ve already identified in the recent batch of Field Polls, including:<\/p>\n

Meg Whitman now leads Jerry Brown.<\/strong> PPIC has Whitman up 44-39 over Brown; Field had Whitman up<\/a> 46-43. Steve Poizner is about 50 points behind Whitman in both polls, and as KQED’s John Myers notes<\/a>, Poizner’s immigrant-bashing attempt to dig himself out of that hole is backfiring badly with Latino voters, driving them more strongly into Brown’s arms. At this point it’s hard to see any way Poizner can win this primary. Jerry Brown must prefer being the underdog to Whitman, since he isn’t likely to begin hard campaigning until the summer.<\/p>\n

Boxer is facing a very close re-election battle.<\/strong> PPIC has Boxer up 44-43 over Fiorina (Field had Boxer leading<\/a> 45-44 over Fiorina) and Campbell up 44-43 over Boxer (the same numbers as Field). Considering that the PPIC poll was done before the passage of the health care bill, however, this has to be seen as Boxer’s baseline. Now that she’s got a bill she can bring home to Californians, more Democrats and Boxer-friendly independents may return to the likely voter universe. And since Boxer hasn’t yet begun her campaign, there’s further reason to expect her numbers to improve. But this one will be close. PPIC also shows a closer race between Campbell and Fiorina than Field did.<\/p>\n

Everybody still hates Arnold.<\/strong> PPIC is a bit more favorable to Arnold – they have 64% of all adults and likely voters disapproving of his performance, whereas Field found 71% disapproved<\/a>. Still, it’s further sign that Californians are done with the Governator, and will be glad to see him back in Hollywood for good in 2011.<\/p>\n

Spending cuts still aren’t popular.<\/strong> Unfortunately, PPIC chose not to ask the kind of specific and therefore extremely valuable questions about specific spending cuts that they asked in January<\/a>. But they did find that only 39% of all adults wanted “mostly spending cuts,” with 38% supporting a mix of cuts and new taxes. When they asked about whether “higher taxes and more services” or “lower taxes and fewer services” were preferred, all adults were evenly split (46-45 for higher taxes) but likely voters favored lower taxes, 55-39, again indicating that November 2010 is a turnout election.<\/p>\n

PPIC added a few new things to the mix:<\/p>\n

Majority support for marriage equality.<\/strong> By a 50-45 margin, Californians support same-sex marriage. And a whopping 75% support repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.<\/p>\n

Prop 14 is probably going to pass.<\/strong> In what should be a surprise to nobody, voters are indicating they’ll pass the top-two primary in June, 56% favoring and 27% opposing. 59% of Democrats are supportive, which is unfortunate since Prop 14 is designed to screw Democrats in particular by pushing primary fights out into the general election and attempting to push the party to the right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1990],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1990"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2Xr","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11373\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}