{"id":11454,"date":"2010-04-04T19:07:49","date_gmt":"2010-04-04T19:07:49","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2010-04-04T19:36:21","modified_gmt":"2010-04-04T19:36:21","slug":"uscla-times-poll-voters-like-health-care-and-immigrants-jerry-brown-in-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2010\/04\/04\/uscla-times-poll-voters-like-health-care-and-immigrants-jerry-brown-in-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"USC\/LA Times Poll: Voters Like Health Care and Immigrants; Jerry Brown In Trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"

California Republicans seem to think 2010 will be a favorable year for them. If that’s true, then they’re going to have to wake up to the fact that the electorate fundamentally does not share their right-wing anti-government, anti-immigrant values, as shown by the USC\/LA Times Poll<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Health care<\/b><\/p>\n

Will country be better off because of health care reform? 52% yes, 36% no, 12% don’t know<\/p>\n

Will you and your family benefit from the bill? 47% yes, 41% no, 13% don’t know<\/p>\n

Would you vote for a politician who voted for the bill? 46% yes, 26% no<\/p>\n

Immigration<\/b><\/p>\n

Would you support or oppose…<\/p>\n

Denying ER treatment and public schooling to immigrants and their children? 47% no, 45% yes, 8% neither\/don’t know<\/p>\n

Temporary guest worker program but no path to citizenship: 70% yes, 24% no, 6% neither\/don’t know<\/p>\n

Path to citizenship with fines, must learn English: 67% yes, 26% no, 7% neither\/don’t know<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Obviously this poll is imperfect – they neglected to ask about a truly progressive approach to comprehensive immigration reform, one that provides a path to citizenship without forcing the undocumented to pay fines or learn a new language.<\/p>\n

The poll also showed strong approval ratings for President Obama<\/a> (64 favorable, 33 unfavorable) and reconfirmed the low ratings for Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature.<\/p>\n

Things get really interesting when the USC\/LA Times poll looked at the governor and Senate races. The poll again confirmed that Meg Whitman has a small lead over Jerry Brown – 44-41 in this poll – but worryingly for Dems, the crosstabs<\/a> show Brown is in very serious trouble with key Democratic base groups:<\/p>\n


\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/TD>
\n 		Brown<\/TD>
\n 		Whitman<\/TD>
\n 		<\/TD>
\n 		Brown<\/TD>
\n 		Whitman<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Dems:<\/TD>
\n 		58<\/TD>
\n 		27<\/TD>
\n 		Reps:<\/TD>
\n 		18<\/TD>
\n 		70<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
DTS:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		39<\/TD>
\n 		Men:<\/TD>
\n 		43<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Women:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		18-29:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		42<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
30-44:<\/TD>
\n 		34<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		45-64:<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
65+:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		White:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Black:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n 		Latino:<\/TD>
\n 		52<\/TD>
\n 		29<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Asian:<\/TD>
\n 		34<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		Liberal:<\/TD>
\n 		66<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Moderate:<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		Conservative:<\/TD>
\n 		17<\/TD>
\n 		68<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n<\/TABLE><\/p>\n

32% of African-Americans undecided? Whitman leading<\/em> among Millennial voters? Brown only has 66% of liberals? Jerry Brown’s sleepwalking campaign is in deep trouble here if he doesn’t start working to address these problems with his base.<\/p>\n

Compare that with Barbara Boxer, who is in a much better position – although the poll did not test her against specific Republicans (Campbell leads Fiorina 29-25, with DeVore at 9), it does show her with a good lead over a generic Republican:<\/p>\n


\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/TD>
\n 		Boxer<\/TD>
\n 		Rep candidate<\/TD>
\n 		<\/TD>
\n 		Boxer<\/TD>
\n 		Rep candidate<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Dems:<\/TD>
\n 		71<\/TD>
\n 		12<\/TD>
\n 		DTS:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		26<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Reps:<\/TD>
\n 		13<\/TD>
\n 		72<\/TD>
\n 		Men:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		39<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Women:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		30<\/TD>
\n 		18-29:<\/TD>
\n 		57<\/TD>
\n 		23<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
30-44:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		27<\/TD>
\n 		45-64:<\/TD>
\n 		46<\/TD>
\n 		37<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
65+:<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		White:<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		42<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Black:<\/TD>
\n 		75<\/TD>
\n 		7<\/TD>
\n 		Latino:<\/TD>
\n 		62<\/TD>
\n 		18<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Asian:<\/TD>
\n 		58<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n 		Liberal:<\/TD>
\n 		76<\/TD>
\n 		10<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Moderate:<\/TD>
\n 		51<\/TD>
\n 		30<\/TD>
\n 		Conservative:<\/TD>
\n 		19<\/TD>
\n 		64<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n<\/TABLE><\/p>\n

The poll also showed support for marriage equality was 52-40, which strikes me as a tad optimistic but still another good sign of a trend moving in favor of equal rights.<\/p>\n

Overall this poll tells me that Californians still want to elect Democrats – but that specific Democratic candidates have to show why<\/em> they deserve to be elected, show the electorate that they will govern as Democrats and give voters something to get excited about. By delivering health care reform, Senator Boxer has done that. By sitting on his ass while Meg Whitman erodes deeply into his base, Jerry Brown is instead setting himself up for an unnecessarily difficult climb to win a third term as governor this fall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California Republicans seem to think 2010 will be a favorable year for them. If that’s true, then they’re going to have to wake up to the fact that the electorate fundamentally does not share their right-wing anti-government, anti-immigrant values, as shown by the USC\/LA Times Poll<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Health care<\/b><\/p>\n

Will country be better off because of health care reform? 52% yes, 36% no, 12% don’t know<\/p>\n

Will you and your family benefit from the bill? 47% yes, 41% no, 13% don’t know<\/p>\n

Would you vote for a politician who voted for the bill? 46% yes, 26% no<\/p>\n

Immigration<\/b><\/p>\n

Would you support or oppose…<\/p>\n

Denying ER treatment and public schooling to immigrants and their children? 47% no, 45% yes, 8% neither\/don’t know<\/p>\n

Temporary guest worker program but no path to citizenship: 70% yes, 24% no, 6% neither\/don’t know<\/p>\n

Path to citizenship with fines, must learn English: 67% yes, 26% no, 7% neither\/don’t know<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Obviously this poll is imperfect – they neglected to ask about a truly progressive approach to comprehensive immigration reform, one that provides a path to citizenship without forcing the undocumented to pay fines or learn a new language.<\/p>\n

The poll also showed strong approval ratings for President Obama<\/a> (64 favorable, 33 unfavorable) and reconfirmed the low ratings for Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature.<\/p>\n

Things get really interesting when the USC\/LA Times poll looked at the governor and Senate races. The poll again confirmed that Meg Whitman has a small lead over Jerry Brown – 44-41 in this poll – but worryingly for Dems, the crosstabs<\/a> show Brown is in very serious trouble with key Democratic base groups:<\/p>\n


\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/TD>
\n 		Brown<\/TD>
\n 		Whitman<\/TD>
\n 		<\/TD>
\n 		Brown<\/TD>
\n 		Whitman<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Dems:<\/TD>
\n 		58<\/TD>
\n 		27<\/TD>
\n 		Reps:<\/TD>
\n 		18<\/TD>
\n 		70<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
DTS:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		39<\/TD>
\n 		Men:<\/TD>
\n 		43<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Women:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		18-29:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		42<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
30-44:<\/TD>
\n 		34<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		45-64:<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
65+:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		White:<\/TD>
\n 		38<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Black:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n 		Latino:<\/TD>
\n 		52<\/TD>
\n 		29<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Asian:<\/TD>
\n 		34<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		Liberal:<\/TD>
\n 		66<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Moderate:<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		Conservative:<\/TD>
\n 		17<\/TD>
\n 		68<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n<\/TABLE><\/p>\n

32% of African-Americans undecided? Whitman leading<\/em> among Millennial voters? Brown only has 66% of liberals? Jerry Brown’s sleepwalking campaign is in deep trouble here if he doesn’t start working to address these problems with his base.<\/p>\n

Compare that with Barbara Boxer, who is in a much better position – although the poll did not test her against specific Republicans (Campbell leads Fiorina 29-25, with DeVore at 9), it does show her with a good lead over a generic Republican:<\/p>\n


\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/TD>
\n 		Boxer<\/TD>
\n 		Rep candidate<\/TD>
\n 		<\/TD>
\n 		Boxer<\/TD>
\n 		Rep candidate<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Dems:<\/TD>
\n 		71<\/TD>
\n 		12<\/TD>
\n 		DTS:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		26<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Reps:<\/TD>
\n 		13<\/TD>
\n 		72<\/TD>
\n 		Men:<\/TD>
\n 		45<\/TD>
\n 		39<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Women:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		30<\/TD>
\n 		18-29:<\/TD>
\n 		57<\/TD>
\n 		23<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
30-44:<\/TD>
\n 		50<\/TD>
\n 		27<\/TD>
\n 		45-64:<\/TD>
\n 		46<\/TD>
\n 		37<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
65+:<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		44<\/TD>
\n 		White:<\/TD>
\n 		41<\/TD>
\n 		42<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Black:<\/TD>
\n 		75<\/TD>
\n 		7<\/TD>
\n 		Latino:<\/TD>
\n 		62<\/TD>
\n 		18<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Asian:<\/TD>
\n 		58<\/TD>
\n 		22<\/TD>
\n 		Liberal:<\/TD>
\n 		76<\/TD>
\n 		10<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n
Moderate:<\/TD>
\n 		51<\/TD>
\n 		30<\/TD>
\n 		Conservative:<\/TD>
\n 		19<\/TD>
\n 		64<\/TD>
\n<\/TR>
\n<\/TABLE><\/p>\n

The poll also showed support for marriage equality was 52-40, which strikes me as a tad optimistic but still another good sign of a trend moving in favor of equal rights.<\/p>\n

Overall this poll tells me that Californians still want to elect Democrats – but that specific Democratic candidates have to show why<\/em> they deserve to be elected, show the electorate that they will govern as Democrats and give voters something to get excited about. By delivering health care reform, Senator Boxer has done that. By sitting on his ass while Meg Whitman erodes deeply into his base, Jerry Brown is instead setting himself up for an unnecessarily difficult climb to win a third term as governor this fall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1990],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1990"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2YK","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}