{"id":12445,"date":"2010-09-04T02:20:10","date_gmt":"2010-09-04T02:20:10","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2010-09-04T02:20:10","modified_gmt":"2010-09-04T02:20:10","slug":"nate-silver-projects-an-extremely-close-governors-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2010\/09\/04\/nate-silver-projects-an-extremely-close-governors-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver Projects An Extremely Close Governor&#8217;s Race"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver, who&#8217;s moved his 538 blog to the New York Times, is <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/09\/03\/g-o-p-poised-to-control-30-governors-seats\/\">out with his gubernatorial projections<\/a>. He&#8217;s got Whitman narrowly beating Brown by a 0.4 point margin, 49.2% to 48.8%. He also gives Whitman a 53% chance to win the seat and Brown 47% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Much of this is due to the way he weights his polling data &#8211; a recent Rasmussen poll (Whitman 51, Brown 43) and SurveyUSA poll (Whitman 47, Brown 40) are largely responsible for this. The SUSA poll gives a 6 point swing to Whitman between August 11 and August 31.<\/p>\n<p>For the Senate, <a href=\"http:\/\/elections.nytimes.com\/2010\/forecasts\/senate\/california\">Silver projects<\/a> Boxer over Fiorina 49.3% to 47.7%, with Boxer having a 58.7% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>The takeaway here is that this race is extremely close, as is the Senate race. It will come down not to persuasion, but to turnout. Every vote counts in November. I know people have been complaining about this or that aspect of the Brown campaign, but the time for that is over. Californians, progressives especially, have to decide whether they want a radical, destructive, elitist right-winger governing them or whether they want to have a chance at making a more progressive California with Brown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver, who&#8217;s moved his 538 blog to the New York Times, is <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/09\/03\/g-o-p-poised-to-control-30-governors-seats\/\">out with his gubernatorial projections<\/a>. He&#8217;s got Whitman narrowly beating Brown by a 0.4 point margin, 49.2% to 48.8%. He also gives Whitman a 53% chance to win the seat and Brown 47% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Much of this is due to the way he weights his polling data &#8211; a recent Rasmussen poll (Whitman 51, Brown 43) and SurveyUSA poll (Whitman 47, Brown 40) are largely responsible for this. The SUSA poll gives a 6 point swing to Whitman between August 11 and August 31.<\/p>\n<p>For the Senate, <a href=\"http:\/\/elections.nytimes.com\/2010\/forecasts\/senate\/california\">Silver projects<\/a> Boxer over Fiorina 49.3% to 47.7%, with Boxer having a 58.7% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>The takeaway here is that this race is extremely close, as is the Senate race. It will come down not to persuasion, but to turnout. Every vote counts in November. I know people have been complaining about this or that aspect of the Brown campaign, but the time for that is over. Californians, progressives especially, have to decide whether they want a radical, destructive, elitist right-winger governing them or whether they want to have a chance at making a more progressive California with Brown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1990],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1990"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3eJ","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12445"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12445\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}