{"id":13850,"date":"2011-09-14T19:35:54","date_gmt":"2011-09-14T19:35:54","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2011-09-14T19:35:54","modified_gmt":"2011-09-14T19:35:54","slug":"sometimes-there-is-something-to-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/14\/sometimes-there-is-something-to-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Sometimes there is something to the market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>Investors snap up California debt on first day of issuance<\/i><\/p>\n<p>by Brian Leubitz<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes you can learn something from a market, or maybe the credit rating agencies can learn something from a market. &nbsp;Specifically, we&#8217;ve been downgraded to just over junk status, yet we have state constitutional rules that prioritize debt service over everything but K12 education. In other words, even if we didn&#8217;t raise revenue in any way, we would be legally required to cut, cut, cut our way into paying back bond investors.<\/p>\n<p>And perhaps investors understand something that the credit rating agencies aren&#8217;t acknowledging, as they gobbled up California debt quickly yesterday as &nbsp;Lockyer&#8217;s office offered some short-term debt to cover some gaps.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Yield-hungry individual investors on Tuesday put in orders to buy more than half of the short-term notes that California is selling this week to raise cash.<\/p>\n<p>Brokerages handling the deal for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer said they had orders for $3.05 billion of the notes, or 56.5% of the planned $5.4-billion deal, by late afternoon.<\/p>\n<p>The brokerages will continue to take orders from individual investors on Wednesday. Institutional investors will bid for what&#8217;s left on Thursday, which is when final interest rates will be set.<\/p>\n<p>The state is preliminarily estimating that the nine-month notes will pay an annualized tax-free yield of between 0.40% and 0.55%. Because that interest is exempt from state and federal income taxes it&#8217;s equivalent to a higher taxable yield, depending on an investor&#8217;s tax bracket. (<a href=\"http:\/\/latimesblogs.latimes.com\/money_co\/2011\/09\/california-ran-note-sale-muni-bonds-lockyer-csu-tax-free.html\">LA Times<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We&#8217;re still slightly higher than Texas, but hardly a &#8220;failed state.&#8221; &nbsp;You want to see failed state? Greece is paying <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/greek-1-year-bond-yield-1117\">111.7% for its 1-year &nbsp;debt<\/a>, and well, at this point you have to assume the interest pressures are close to breaking the EU. Investors are fairly well convinced there will be a Greek debt default. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Now, I&#8217;ll not get too into the weeds here, as there is a lot to digest here. But, I will add the disclaimer that these bonds were actually given the credit rating agencies&#8217; highest rating. Apparently they are high on our short term debt. &nbsp;But from a macro perspective, Lockyer, in general, hasn&#8217;t had a huge problem selling our debt. &nbsp;Perhaps the market is saying something&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><i>Investors snap up California debt on first day of issuance<\/i><\/p>\n<p>by Brian Leubitz<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes you can learn something from a market, or maybe the credit rating agencies can learn something from a market. &nbsp;Specifically, we&#8217;ve been downgraded to just over junk status, yet we have state constitutional rules that prioritize debt service over everything but K12 education. In other words, even if we didn&#8217;t raise revenue in any way, we would be legally required to cut, cut, cut our way into paying back bond investors.<\/p>\n<p>And perhaps investors understand something that the credit rating agencies aren&#8217;t acknowledging, as they gobbled up California debt quickly yesterday as &nbsp;Lockyer&#8217;s office offered some short-term debt to cover some gaps.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Yield-hungry individual investors on Tuesday put in orders to buy more than half of the short-term notes that California is selling this week to raise cash.<\/p>\n<p>Brokerages handling the deal for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer said they had orders for $3.05 billion of the notes, or 56.5% of the planned $5.4-billion deal, by late afternoon.<\/p>\n<p>The brokerages will continue to take orders from individual investors on Wednesday. Institutional investors will bid for what&#8217;s left on Thursday, which is when final interest rates will be set.<\/p>\n<p>The state is preliminarily estimating that the nine-month notes will pay an annualized tax-free yield of between 0.40% and 0.55%. Because that interest is exempt from state and federal income taxes it&#8217;s equivalent to a higher taxable yield, depending on an investor&#8217;s tax bracket. (<a href=\"http:\/\/latimesblogs.latimes.com\/money_co\/2011\/09\/california-ran-note-sale-muni-bonds-lockyer-csu-tax-free.html\">LA Times<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We&#8217;re still slightly higher than Texas, but hardly a &#8220;failed state.&#8221; &nbsp;You want to see failed state? Greece is paying <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/greek-1-year-bond-yield-1117\">111.7% for its 1-year &nbsp;debt<\/a>, and well, at this point you have to assume the interest pressures are close to breaking the EU. Investors are fairly well convinced there will be a Greek debt default. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Now, I&#8217;ll not get too into the weeds here, as there is a lot to digest here. But, I will add the disclaimer that these bonds were actually given the credit rating agencies&#8217; highest rating. Apparently they are high on our short term debt. &nbsp;But from a macro perspective, Lockyer, in general, hasn&#8217;t had a huge problem selling our debt. &nbsp;Perhaps the market is saying something&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[38,10141],"class_list":["post-13850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-38","tag-10141"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3Bo","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13850\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}