{"id":14048,"date":"2011-12-05T21:19:09","date_gmt":"2011-12-05T21:19:09","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2011-12-05T21:19:09","modified_gmt":"2011-12-05T21:19:09","slug":"congress-the-presidential-election-and-control-of-the-house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/congress-the-presidential-election-and-control-of-the-house\/","title":{"rendered":"Congress, The Presidential Election, and Control of the House"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>Potential for Democratic pickups under new maps<\/i><\/p>\n<p>by Brian Leubitz<\/p>\n<p><iframe frameBorder=0 width=350px height=350px scrolling=no src=\"http:\/\/www.aroundthecapitol.com\/districts\/districtmap.html?district=CD35\" align=right><\/iframe>With only a longshot of a federal court challenge remaining, it looks like the new Congressional maps will go into effect for the June &#8220;primary&#8221; election. &nbsp;And with that, there is the possibility of a few seats changing hands in the House. Currently, we have 19 Republicans and 34 Democrats, but if Nancy Pelosi is to retake the gavel, she&#8217;ll likely need to pick up a few next year.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/articles\/category\/2012-house\/\">Larry Sabato&#8217;s 2012 House ratings<\/a> (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.sacbee.com\/capitolalertlatest\/2011\/12\/national-congressional-survey-sees-dem-gains-in-california.html\">h\/t Bee<\/a>), which are something of an institution among the many prognosticators in the business these days, he thinks there is at least one &#8220;likely&#8221; pickup for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Who&#8217;s that, you ask? Well that would be one Jerry Lewis, the self-dealing walking corruption scandal. &nbsp;I mean, any Republican has to know it is bad when <a href=\"http:\/\/biggovernment.com\/tfitton\/2010\/11\/16\/top-ten-most-corrupt-rep-jerry-lewis-not-fit-for-appropriations-chair\/\">Andrew Breitbart&#8217;s website sends a letter to Speaker Boehner against you<\/a>. &nbsp;He&#8217;s avoided a couple vigorous challenges in the last few go-rounds. &nbsp;However, his district has changed since 2010. He now is in a district that went for Obama by 7 points and could end up getting even a smidge crazier if a few incumbents end up jumping around. &nbsp;At this point, Russ Warner and Renea Wickman are the two Democrats campaigning.<\/p>\n<p>But, there is one other large factor out there that Tony Quinn brings up <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foxandhoundsdaily.com\/2011\/12\/californias-presidential-race-may-decide-who-controls-house-of-representatives\/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=californias-presidential-race-may-decide-who-controls-house-of-representatives\">today at Fox and Hounds<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>December&#8217;s Field Poll on the 2012 presidential contest, which shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 10 points and Newt Gingrich by 20 points, also gives us a few clues about the outcome of next year&#8217;s congressional races. &nbsp;The survey suggests that if Romney heads the GOP ticket, Republicans might do all right in the congressional contests; if Gingrich heads the ticket, they could take a bath.<\/p>\n<p>That is because federal races have now become nationalized, and California voters may be less likely to split their tickets between president and congress than they were in the past. &nbsp;California had very few hotly contested congressional races under the gerrymandered plan in effect for the past decade. &nbsp;The 11th Congressional District that covered parts of the East Bay and San Joaquin County was the only one to change hands; Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney won it by ousting a Republican incumbent in 2006.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A Gingrich nomination could result in another Obama blowout similar to 2008 numbers. &nbsp;With these new maps, that could very easily end up with another seat or two in the Democratic column. &nbsp;And with the very real possibility of control of the House being determined by a few seats on either side, it could make a very big difference across the country.<\/p>\n<p>So, you know, Go Newt!?!?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><i>Potential for Democratic pickups under new maps<\/i><\/p>\n<p>by Brian Leubitz<\/p>\n<p><iframe frameBorder=0 width=350px height=350px scrolling=no src=\"http:\/\/www.aroundthecapitol.com\/districts\/districtmap.html?district=CD35\" align=right><\/iframe>With only a longshot of a federal court challenge remaining, it looks like the new Congressional maps will go into effect for the June &#8220;primary&#8221; election. &nbsp;And with that, there is the possibility of a few seats changing hands in the House. Currently, we have 19 Republicans and 34 Democrats, but if Nancy Pelosi is to retake the gavel, she&#8217;ll likely need to pick up a few next year.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/articles\/category\/2012-house\/\">Larry Sabato&#8217;s 2012 House ratings<\/a> (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.sacbee.com\/capitolalertlatest\/2011\/12\/national-congressional-survey-sees-dem-gains-in-california.html\">h\/t Bee<\/a>), which are something of an institution among the many prognosticators in the business these days, he thinks there is at least one &#8220;likely&#8221; pickup for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Who&#8217;s that, you ask? Well that would be one Jerry Lewis, the self-dealing walking corruption scandal. &nbsp;I mean, any Republican has to know it is bad when <a href=\"http:\/\/biggovernment.com\/tfitton\/2010\/11\/16\/top-ten-most-corrupt-rep-jerry-lewis-not-fit-for-appropriations-chair\/\">Andrew Breitbart&#8217;s website sends a letter to Speaker Boehner against you<\/a>. &nbsp;He&#8217;s avoided a couple vigorous challenges in the last few go-rounds. &nbsp;However, his district has changed since 2010. He now is in a district that went for Obama by 7 points and could end up getting even a smidge crazier if a few incumbents end up jumping around. &nbsp;At this point, Russ Warner and Renea Wickman are the two Democrats campaigning.<\/p>\n<p>But, there is one other large factor out there that Tony Quinn brings up <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foxandhoundsdaily.com\/2011\/12\/californias-presidential-race-may-decide-who-controls-house-of-representatives\/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=californias-presidential-race-may-decide-who-controls-house-of-representatives\">today at Fox and Hounds<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>December&#8217;s Field Poll on the 2012 presidential contest, which shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 10 points and Newt Gingrich by 20 points, also gives us a few clues about the outcome of next year&#8217;s congressional races. &nbsp;The survey suggests that if Romney heads the GOP ticket, Republicans might do all right in the congressional contests; if Gingrich heads the ticket, they could take a bath.<\/p>\n<p>That is because federal races have now become nationalized, and California voters may be less likely to split their tickets between president and congress than they were in the past. &nbsp;California had very few hotly contested congressional races under the gerrymandered plan in effect for the past decade. &nbsp;The 11th Congressional District that covered parts of the East Bay and San Joaquin County was the only one to change hands; Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney won it by ousting a Republican incumbent in 2006.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A Gingrich nomination could result in another Obama blowout similar to 2008 numbers. &nbsp;With these new maps, that could very easily end up with another seat or two in the Democratic column. &nbsp;And with the very real possibility of control of the House being determined by a few seats on either side, it could make a very big difference across the country.<\/p>\n<p>So, you know, Go Newt!?!?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[150],"class_list":["post-14048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-150"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3EA","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}