{"id":14085,"date":"2011-12-28T05:39:40","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T05:39:40","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2011-12-29T04:32:41","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T04:32:41","slug":"outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-christmasnew-years-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/28\/outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-christmasnew-years-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Christmas\/New Year’s edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Picking up on a diary<\/a> from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.<\/p>\n

In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment<\/a> in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.<\/p>\n

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.<\/p>\n

Here is the lowdown on these districts.<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\n“Incumbent”<\/th>\nDEM<\/font><\/th>\nGOP<\/font><\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\n2008 Pres.<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Garamendi<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
42.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-07<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-09<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
McNerney<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
45.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+15.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Costa<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
48.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
33.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+17.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
46.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Capps<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+15.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Gallegly<\/font> (?)<\/center><\/td>\n
41.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Dreier\/Lewis<\/font> (?)<\/center><\/td>\n
41.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
41.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
41.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+18.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+13.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-46<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Sanchez<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
44.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+19.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+11.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-47<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
42.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+19.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-52<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nDEM<\/th>\nGOP<\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\n2008 Pres.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-05<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
42.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-19<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
44.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
31.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+22.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-27<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
40.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+16.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
39.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-39<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
38.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
30.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+13.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

State Assembly<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nDEM<\/th>\nGOP<\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\n2008 Pres.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-08<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
40.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
40.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+23.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
47.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
33.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+11.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
49.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+16.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+20.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-32<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
47.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
33.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-40<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
39.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
39.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-60<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
36.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-61<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
42.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+15.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+24.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+13.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-65<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
36.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-66<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
38.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

If (and this is a big if<\/strong>) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/strong>: 35 DEM<\/font>, 18 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (26)<\/font>: 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53
\n
Safe GOP (14)<\/font>: 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50<\/p>\n

State Senate<\/strong>: 27 DEM<\/font>, 13 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (10)<\/font>: 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
\n
Safe GOP (5)<\/font>: 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
\n
Up in 2014: 13 DEM<\/font>, 7 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

State Assembly<\/strong>: 50 DEM<\/font>, 30 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (46)<\/font>: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80<\/p>\n

Safe GOP (23)<\/font>: 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Picking up on a diary<\/a> from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.<\/p>\n

In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment<\/a> in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.<\/p>\n

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.<\/p>\n

Here is the lowdown on these districts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[9468,486,2814,1878,2817,2909,96,362,2821,172,272,837,994,417,752,3483,519],"class_list":["post-14085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-9468","tag-486","tag-2814","tag-1878","tag-2817","tag-2909","tag-96","tag-362","tag-2821","tag-172","tag-272","tag-837","tag-994","tag-417","tag-752","tag-3483","tag-519"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3Fb","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14085\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}