{"id":14235,"date":"2012-03-08T00:59:59","date_gmt":"2012-03-08T00:59:59","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-03-12T20:37:49","modified_gmt":"2012-03-12T20:37:49","slug":"outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-postsuper-tuesday-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/08\/outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-postsuper-tuesday-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Super Tuesday Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.<\/p>\n

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\n“Incumbent”<\/th>\nDEM<\/font><\/th>\nGOP<\/font><\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\nCook PVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Garamendi<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
41.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-07<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-09<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
McNerney<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
44.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Costa<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
47.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+15.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
45.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+11.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Capps<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
40.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
41.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
40.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
41.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+13.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-46<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Sanchez<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
44.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
31.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-47<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
None<\/center><\/td>\n
42.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
31.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+9.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-52<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nDEM<\/th>\nGOP<\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nCook PVI<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-05<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
41.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-19<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
43.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
31.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-27<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
40.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
39.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
36.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-39<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
37.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
30.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

State Assembly<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nDEM<\/th>\nGOP<\/th>\nMargin<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nCook PVI<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-08<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
40.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
EVEN<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
39.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+23.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
46.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+11.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
49.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
31.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+17.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+20.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-32<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
46.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
32.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+14.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-40<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
38.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
38.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
38.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.9<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-60<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
36.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
39.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.7<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-61<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
42.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
34.5<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+10.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+15.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+24.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+13.1<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-65<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
36.0<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
37.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.3<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-66<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n
38.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
35.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.6<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

If (and this is a big if<\/strong>) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/strong>: 36 DEM<\/font>, 17 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (27)<\/font>: 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 51, 53
\n
Safe GOP (13)<\/font>: 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50<\/p>\n

State Senate<\/strong>: 27 DEM<\/font>, 13 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (10)<\/font>: 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
\n
Safe GOP (5)<\/font>: 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
\n
Up in 2014: 13 DEM<\/font>, 7 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

State Assembly<\/strong>: 50 DEM<\/font>, 30 GOP<\/font><\/p>\n

Safe DEM (46)<\/font>: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80<\/p>\n

Safe GOP (23)<\/font>: 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.<\/p>\n

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[9468,486,2814,1878,2817,2909,96,362,2821,172,272,837,994,417,752,3483],"class_list":["post-14235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-9468","tag-486","tag-2814","tag-1878","tag-2817","tag-2909","tag-96","tag-362","tag-2821","tag-172","tag-272","tag-837","tag-994","tag-417","tag-752","tag-3483"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3HB","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14235"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14235\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}