Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.<\/p>\n
SD-02<\/a> (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D) Here are my ratings for the State Senate races. See the extended.<\/p>\n California’s 1st State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE GOP<\/b> California’s 3rd State Senate District<\/a> – GUARANTEED DEM<\/b> California’s 5th State Senate District<\/a> – TOSS-UP<\/b> Description: This will be one of the Senate races to watch closely, with two Assemblymembers facing off. Berryhill won twice in an Obama-voting district, while Galgiani recently came out as a lesbian and is vocal in her support for high-speed rail. Democrats have had a better history of winning victories in districts that included Stockton though.<\/p>\n California’s 7th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> California’s 9th State Senate District<\/a> – GUARANTEED DEM<\/b> California’s 11th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> California’s 13th State Senate District<\/a> – GUARANTEED DEM<\/b> Description: This intraparty battle does not have much drama. Hill represents more of this district, so he has an advantage.<\/p>\n California’s 15th State Senate District<\/a> – GUARANTEED DEM<\/b> Description: This intraparty battle has a much deeper split, with Beall hailing from the richer western side and Coto the poorer eastern side. Beall being a current member of the Assembly probably has an edge.<\/p>\n California’s 17th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> California’s 19th State Senate District<\/a> – LIKELY DEM<\/b> Description: Jackson made it out of a bruising primary. Stoker came close in a Santa Barbara-based Assembly district in 2010, but with turnout at UCSB likely to be much higher, it is unlikely he would get much closer.<\/p>\n California’s 21st State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE GOP<\/b> California’s 23rd State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE GOP<\/b> California’s 25th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> California’s 27th State Senate District<\/a> – LEAN DEM<\/b> Description: Pavley’s district became much more Ventura-centric and less Democratic. Zink won more of the June vote, so the November vote might go more to Pavley.<\/p>\n California’s 29th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE GOP<\/b> California’s 31st State Senate District<\/a> – TOSS-UP<\/b> Description: This is the Senate version of the uncharted Riverside-centric territory with a known Republican entity.<\/p>\n California’s 33rd State Senate District<\/a> – GUARANTEED DEM<\/b> California’s 35th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> California’s 37th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE GOP<\/b> California’s 39th State Senate District<\/a> – SAFE DEM<\/b> My predictions are 13 DEM seats, 5 GOP seats, and 2 toss-ups. The other seats are 12 DEM and 8 GOP, so the best Democrats can do is 27-13, enough for 2\/3 (though it is unlikely we will get there in the Assembly; I will post that diary later), and the best Republicans can do is status-quo 25-15. (Spoiler: Interesting that the best-case Republican scenario in the Senate is status quo, while the best case Democratic scenario in the Assembly is status-quo, 52-28.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.<\/p>\n SD-02<\/a> (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D) Here are my ratings for the State Senate races. See the extended.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[519,799],"class_list":["post-14456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-519","tag-799"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3La","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14456\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
SD-04<\/a> (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) – currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.
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SD-06<\/a> (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)
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SD-08<\/a> (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)
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SD-10<\/a> (Hayward\/Fremont): Open; safe DEM
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SD-12<\/a> (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)
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SD-14<\/a> (Fresno\/Kings\/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)
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SD-16<\/a> (Bakersfield\/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)
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SD-18<\/a> (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM
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SD-20<\/a> (Pomona\/Ontario\/Fontana): Open; safe DEM
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SD-22<\/a> (West Covina\/El Monte\/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)
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SD-24<\/a> (Downtown\/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)
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SD-26<\/a> (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)
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SD-28<\/a> (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)
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SD-30<\/a> (Culver City): Curren Price (D)
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SD-32<\/a> (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM
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SD-34<\/a> (Seal Beach\/Garden Grove\/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP
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SD-36<\/a> (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP
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SD-38<\/a> (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)
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SD-40<\/a> (Imperial County\/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)<\/p>\n
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Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Folsom, South Lake Tahoe)
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November ballot: Ted Gaines (R-inc) vs. Julie Griffith-Flatter (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32
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Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
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President 2008: McCain 54-42<\/p>\n
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Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)
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November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
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Governor 2010: Brown 60-34
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President 2008: Obama 66-31<\/p>\n
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Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy), Modesto
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November ballot: Bill Berryhill (R) vs. Cathleen Galgiani (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
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Governor 2010: Brown 47-46
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President 2008: Obama 53-44<\/p>\n
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Geography: Concord, Antioch, Livermore
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November ballot: Mark DeSaulnier (D-inc) vs. Mark Meuser (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 52-41
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Governor 2010: Brown 53-41
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President 2008: Obama 62-35<\/p>\n
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Geography: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
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November ballot: Loni Hancock (D-inc)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 82-12
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Governor 2010: Brown 83-12
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President 2008: Obama 86-11<\/p>\n
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Geography: San Francisco, Daly City
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November ballot: Mark Leno (D-inc) vs. Harmeet Dhillon (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16
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Governor 2010: Brown 77-18
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President 2008: Obama 82-14<\/p>\n
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Geography: San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale)
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November ballot: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 65-29
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Governor 2010: Brown 64-31
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President 2008: Obama 73-24<\/p>\n
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Geography: Silicon Valley (San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos)
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November ballot: Jim Beall (D) vs. Joe Coto (D)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
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Governor 2010: Brown 59-35
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President 2008: Obama 68-29<\/p>\n
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Geography: Northern Central Coast (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)
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November ballot: Bill Monning (D) vs. Larry Beaman (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 54-28
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Governor 2010: 56-38
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President 2008: Obama 64-33<\/p>\n
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Geography: Southern Central Coast (Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, Oxnard)
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November ballot: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) vs. Mike Stoker (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
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Governor 2010: Brown 49-43
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President 2008: Obama 60-37<\/p>\n
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Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Victorville
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November ballot: Steve Knight (R) vs. Star Moffatt (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-36
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Governor 2010: Whitman 51-39
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President 2008: McCain 50-47<\/p>\n
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Geography: Inland Empire (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Hemet)
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November ballot: Bill Emmerson (R-inc) vs. Melissa Ruth O’Donnell (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37
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Governor 2010: Whitman 50-40
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President 2008: McCain 51-46<\/p>\n
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Geography: Glendale, Glendora, Pasadena
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November ballot: Carol Liu (D-inc) vs. Gilbert Gonzales (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41
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Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
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President 2008: Obama 60-36<\/p>\n
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Geography: Western San Fernando Valley, Eastern Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley)
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November ballot: Fran Pavley (D-inc) vs. Todd Zink (R)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-46
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Governor 2010: Whitman 47.2-46.5
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President 2008: Obama 57-40<\/p>\n
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Geography: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Fullerton
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November ballot: Bob Huff (R-inc) vs. Greg Diamond (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38
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Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39
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President 2008: McCain 49-48<\/p>\n
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Geography: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley
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November ballot: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Richard Roth (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 45.6-45.5
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Governor 2010: Brown 48.2-43.1
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President 2008: Obama 56-41<\/p>\n
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Geography: Long Beach, South Gate, Lynwood
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November ballot: Ricardo Lara (D)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 69-22
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Governor 2010: Brown 70-22
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President 2008: 75-21<\/p>\n
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Geography: Carson, San Pedro, Torrance
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November ballot: Rod Wright (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Svolos
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Senate 2010: Boxer 71-20
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Governor 2010: Brown 72-21
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President 2008: Obama 77-20<\/p>\n
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Geography: Central Orange County (Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa)
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November ballot: Mimi Walters (R-inc) vs. Steve Young (D)
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Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-34
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Governor 2010: Whitman 52-35
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President 2008: McCain 49-47<\/p>\n
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Geography: San Diego, Coronado
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November ballot: Marty Block (D) vs. George Plescia (R)
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Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
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Governor 2010: Brown 49-44
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President 2008: Obama 60-37<\/p>\n
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SD-04<\/a> (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) – currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.
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SD-06<\/a> (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)
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SD-08<\/a> (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)
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SD-10<\/a> (Hayward\/Fremont): Open; safe DEM
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SD-12<\/a> (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)
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SD-14<\/a> (Fresno\/Kings\/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)
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SD-16<\/a> (Bakersfield\/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)
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SD-18<\/a> (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM
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SD-20<\/a> (Pomona\/Ontario\/Fontana): Open; safe DEM
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SD-22<\/a> (West Covina\/El Monte\/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)
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SD-24<\/a> (Downtown\/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)
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SD-26<\/a> (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)
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SD-28<\/a> (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)
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SD-30<\/a> (Culver City): Curren Price (D)
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SD-32<\/a> (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM
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SD-34<\/a> (Seal Beach\/Garden Grove\/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP
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SD-36<\/a> (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP
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SD-38<\/a> (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)
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SD-40<\/a> (Imperial County\/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)<\/p>\n