{"id":14600,"date":"2012-10-04T14:44:42","date_gmt":"2012-10-04T14:44:42","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-10-04T14:44:42","modified_gmt":"2012-10-04T14:44:42","slug":"outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-postconvention-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/04\/outlook-for-california-districts-in-2012-postconvention-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Convention Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.<\/p>\n

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.<\/p>\n

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-07<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-09<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-10<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+12.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-16<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-21<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.2<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-24<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.3<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-26<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-36<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.9<\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-47<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.5<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-52<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-05<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.0<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-19<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.6<\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.2<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-27<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-31<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-39<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

State Assembly<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-08<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
EVEN<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-16<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.9<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-21<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-32<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-40<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-44<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-60<\/center><\/td>\n
R+13.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-61<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.6<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.0<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-65<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-66<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-78<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.<\/p>\n

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.<\/p>\n

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[9468,486,2814,1878,2817,2909,96,362,172,272,994,417,752,3483],"class_list":["post-14600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-9468","tag-486","tag-2814","tag-1878","tag-2817","tag-2909","tag-96","tag-362","tag-172","tag-272","tag-994","tag-417","tag-752","tag-3483"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3Nu","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}