{"id":14678,"date":"2012-11-06T15:14:59","date_gmt":"2012-11-06T15:14:59","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-11-07T20:18:08","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T20:18:08","slug":"my-final-2012-predictions-nationallevel-and-californialevel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/my-final-2012-predictions-nationallevel-and-californialevel\/","title":{"rendered":"My Final 2012 Predictions, National-Level and California-Level"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.<\/p>\n

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.<\/p>\n

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.<\/p>\n

\"2012<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/th>\nResult<\/th>\nD Electoral Votes<\/th>\nR Electoral Votes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Alabama<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 19.23<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alaska<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 20.43<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arizona<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 6.84<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
11<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arkansas<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 22.87<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 19.92<\/center><\/td>\n
55<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colorado<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 2.59<\/center><\/td>\n
9<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Connecticut<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 15.74<\/center><\/td>\n
7<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Delaware<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 26.09<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District of Columbia<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 87.03<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Florida<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 0.26*<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
29<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Georgia<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 6.71<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
16<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hawaii<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 36.69<\/center><\/td>\n
4<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Idaho<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 24.19<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Illinois<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 18.81<\/center><\/td>\n
20<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indiana<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 5.43*<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
11<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iowa<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 2.79<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kansas<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 13.81<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kentucky<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 14.55<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Louisiana<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 17.52<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maine<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 15.29<\/center><\/td>\n
4<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maryland<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 22.39<\/center><\/td>\n
10<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Massachusetts<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 21.84<\/center><\/td>\n
11<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Michigan<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 5.18<\/center><\/td>\n
16<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minnesota<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 8.34<\/center><\/td>\n
10<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mississippi<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 12.06<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Missouri<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 8.3<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montana<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 5.11<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nebraksa<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 13.41<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nevada<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 3.64<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Hampshire<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 3.01<\/center><\/td>\n
4<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Jersey<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 14.33<\/center><\/td>\n
14<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Mexico<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 11.66<\/center><\/td>\n
5<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 26.87<\/center><\/td>\n
29<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 0.46*<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Dakota<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 19.11<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ohio<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 2.96<\/center><\/td>\n
18<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 29.59<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oregon<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 9.78<\/center><\/td>\n
7<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pennsylvania<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 6.09<\/center><\/td>\n
20<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rhode Island<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 22.98<\/center><\/td>\n
4<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
South Carolina<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 7.87<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
South Dakota<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 6.65<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 13.95<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
11<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Texas<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 14.9<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
38<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 33.45<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 37.56<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Virginia<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 2.05<\/center><\/td>\n
13<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 12.05<\/center><\/td>\n
12<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Virginia<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 12.99<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wisconsin<\/center><\/td>\n
Obama by 5.8<\/center><\/td>\n
10<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wyoming<\/center><\/td>\n
Romney by 31.23<\/center><\/td>\n
<\/center><\/td>\n
3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/th>\n<\/th>\n303<\/th>\n235<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.<\/p>\n

\"2012<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/center><\/th>\n
Result<\/center><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Delaware<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Markell (D)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indiana<\/center><\/td>\n
Pence (D) by 7.87<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Missouri<\/center><\/td>\n
Nixon (D) by 13<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montana<\/center><\/td>\n
Daines (R) by 0.5*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Hampshire<\/center><\/td>\n
Hassan (D) by 3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina<\/center><\/td>\n
McCrory (R) by 14.25*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Dakota<\/center><\/td>\n
Dalrymple (R) by 35<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Herbert (R)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/center><\/td>\n
Shumlin (D) by 34.00<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington<\/center><\/td>\n
Inslee (D) by 0.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Virginia<\/center><\/td>\n
Tomblin (D) by 21<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Governors<\/th>\n30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

Now for the Senate races. I don’t know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.<\/p>\n

\"2012<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/th>\nResult<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Arizona<\/center><\/td>\n
Carmona (D) by 0.5*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/center><\/td>\n
Feinstein (D) by 19<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Connecticut<\/center><\/td>\n
Murphy (D) by 4.67<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Delaware<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Carper (D)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Florida<\/center><\/td>\n
Nelson (D) by 7.43<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hawaii<\/center><\/td>\n
Hirono (D) by 18.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indiana<\/center><\/td>\n
Donnelly (D) by 3*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maine<\/center><\/td>\n
King (I) by 18*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maryland<\/center><\/td>\n
Cardin (D) by 26.09<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Massachusetts<\/center><\/td>\n
Warren (D) by 4.67*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Michigan<\/center><\/td>\n
Stabenow (D) by 13.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minnesota<\/center><\/td>\n
Klobuchar (D) by 30<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mississippi<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Wicker (R)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Missouri<\/center><\/td>\n
McCaskill (D) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montana<\/center><\/td>\n
Rehberg (R) by 1.13*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nebraska<\/center><\/td>\n
Fischer (R) by 13*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nevada<\/center><\/td>\n
Heller (R) by 5.14<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Jersey<\/center><\/td>\n
Menendez (D) by 18<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Mexico<\/center><\/td>\n
Heinrich (D) by 9.67<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York<\/center><\/td>\n
Gillibrand (D) by 43<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Dakota<\/center><\/td>\n
Berg (R) by 5*<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ohio<\/center><\/td>\n
Brown (D) by 6.14<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pennsylvania<\/center><\/td>\n
Casey (D) by 5.14<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rhode Island<\/center><\/td>\n
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Corker (R)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Texas<\/center><\/td>\n
Cruz (R) by 21.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Hatch (R)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Sanders (I)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Virginia<\/center><\/td>\n
Kaine (D) by 1.57<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington<\/center><\/td>\n
Cantwell (D) by 16.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Virginia<\/center><\/td>\n
Manchin (D) by 39<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wisconsin<\/center><\/td>\n
Baldwin (D) by 2.67<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wyoming<\/center><\/td>\n
Safe Barrasso (R)<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Senators<\/th>\n51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.<\/p>\n

\"2012<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nResult<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AZ-01<\/center><\/td>\n
Paton (R) by 1.88<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AZ-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Barber (D) by 5.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AZ-09<\/center><\/td>\n
Sinema (D) by 2.56<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Garamendi (D) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-07<\/center><\/td>\n
Bera (D) by 1.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-09<\/center><\/td>\n
McNerney (D) by 1.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-10<\/center><\/td>\n
Denham (R) by 1.13<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-24<\/center><\/td>\n
Capps (D) by 2.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-26<\/center><\/td>\n
Brownley (D) by 0.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-36<\/center><\/td>\n
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/center><\/td>\n
Takano (D) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-47<\/center><\/td>\n
Lowenthal (D) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-52<\/center><\/td>\n
Peters (D) by 0.31<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Tipton (R) by 5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Coffman (R) by 4.38<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO-07<\/center><\/td>\n
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CT-05<\/center><\/td>\n
Esty (D) by 3.13<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Southerland (R) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-10<\/center><\/td>\n
Webster (R) by 5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-16<\/center><\/td>\n
Buchanan (R) by 10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-18<\/center><\/td>\n
West (R) by 4.59<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-22<\/center><\/td>\n
Frankel (D) by 3.89<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-26<\/center><\/td>\n
Rivera (R) by 2<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GA-12<\/center><\/td>\n
Barrow (D) by 4.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Duckworth (D) by 8.75<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-10<\/center><\/td>\n
Dold (R) by 1.88<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-11<\/center><\/td>\n
Foster (D) by 2.81<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-12<\/center><\/td>\n
Enyart (D) by 4.94<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-13<\/center><\/td>\n
Gill (D) by 0.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL-17<\/center><\/td>\n
Bustos (D) by 0.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IN-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Walorski (R) by 12.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IN-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Bucshon (R) by 10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA-01<\/center><\/td>\n
Braley (D) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Loebsack (D) by 10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Latham (R) by 3.75<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA-04<\/center><\/td>\n
King (R) by 3.44<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KY-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Chandler (D) by 5.19<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MD-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Delaney (D) by 5.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MA-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Tisei (R) by 5.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MI-01<\/center><\/td>\n
McDowell (D) by 1.31<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MI-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Amash (R) by 11.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MI-11<\/center><\/td>\n
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MN-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Kline (R) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MN-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Bachmann (R) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MN-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Nolan (D) by 2.56<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MT-AL<\/center><\/td>\n
Daines (R) by 8.67<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NV-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Heck (R) by 9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NV-04<\/center><\/td>\n
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NH-01<\/center><\/td>\n
Guinta (R) by 5.31<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NH-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Kuster (D) by 4.85<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NJ-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Runyan (R) by 10.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-01<\/center><\/td>\n
Bishop (D) by 8.69<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-11<\/center><\/td>\n
Grimm (R) by 13.38<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-18<\/center><\/td>\n
Hayworth (R) by 4.75<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-19<\/center><\/td>\n
Gibson (R) by 3.75<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-21<\/center><\/td>\n
Owens (D) by 2.06<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-24<\/center><\/td>\n
Maffei (D) by 1.56<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-25<\/center><\/td>\n
Slaughter (D) by 9.38<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-27<\/center><\/td>\n
Collins (R) by 2.06<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NC-07<\/center><\/td>\n
Rouzer (R) by 0.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NC-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Hudson (R) by 10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NC-11<\/center><\/td>\n
Meadows (R) by 12.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ND-AL<\/center><\/td>\n
Cramer (R) by 12.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OH-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Johnson (R) by 4.38<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OH-16<\/center><\/td>\n
Renacci (R) by 1.88<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OK-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Mullin (R) by 11.63<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PA-06<\/center><\/td>\n
Gerlach (R) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PA-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PA-12<\/center><\/td>\n
Critz (D) by 1.88<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RI-01<\/center><\/td>\n
Cicilline (D) by 2.83<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-AL<\/center><\/td>\n
Noem (R) by 12<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TN-04<\/center><\/td>\n
DesJarlais (R) by 5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TX-14<\/center><\/td>\n
Weber (R) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TX-23<\/center><\/td>\n
Gallego (D) by 1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UT-04<\/center><\/td>\n
Love (R) by 8.19<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VA-02<\/center><\/td>\n
Regel (R) by 10<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WA-01<\/center><\/td>\n
DelBene (D) by 5.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WV-03<\/center><\/td>\n
Rahall (D) by 12.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WI-07<\/center><\/td>\n
Duffy (R) by 6.25<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WI-08<\/center><\/td>\n
Ribble (R) by 15<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Representatives<\/th>\n239 Republicans, 196 Democrats<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Now onto my final California predictions:<\/p>\n

U.S. House<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.7<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-07<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.5<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-09<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-10<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+12.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-24<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-26<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.6<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-36<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.7<\/center><\/td>\n
D+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-47<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.5<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.7<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-52<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.6<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-05<\/center><\/td>\n
R+13.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.9<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-19<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+7.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-27<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-31<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD-39<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.0<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

State Assembly<\/b>
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRegistration<\/th>\nCPVI<\/th>\n2010 Sen.<\/th>\n2010 Gov.<\/th>\nPF<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-08<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.9<\/center><\/td>\n
EVEN<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.0<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.2<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-16<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.6<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-21<\/center><\/td>\n
R+2.6<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+3.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-32<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-40<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.5<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.3<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-44<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.8<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-60<\/center><\/td>\n
R+12.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+9.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-61<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n
D+8.7<\/center><\/td>\n
R+0.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.4<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-65<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+1.9<\/center><\/td>\n
R+10.6<\/center><\/td>\n
R+11.2<\/center><\/td>\n
R+8.1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-66<\/center><\/td>\n
R+5.1<\/center><\/td>\n
D+2.8<\/center><\/td>\n
R+6.4<\/center><\/td>\n
R+7.5<\/center><\/td>\n
R+4.1<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AD-78<\/center><\/td>\n
D+0.2<\/center><\/td>\n
D+12.0<\/center><\/td>\n
D+3.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+1.4<\/center><\/td>\n
D+4.3<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California’s Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:<\/p>\n

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP<\/b>
\n
(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)<\/p>\n

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53
\n
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50<\/p>\n

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP<\/b>
\n
(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)<\/p>\n

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
\n
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
\n
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP<\/p>\n

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP<\/b>
\n
(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)<\/p>\n

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80<\/p>\n

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.<\/p>\n

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[9468,752,3483,27,1383,10669,5582],"class_list":["post-14678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-9468","tag-752","tag-3483","tag-27","tag-1383","tag-10669","tag-5582"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-3OK","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}