{"id":8510,"date":"2009-04-10T23:12:15","date_gmt":"2009-04-10T23:12:15","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2009-04-10T23:12:15","modified_gmt":"2009-04-10T23:12:15","slug":"another-poll-shows-trouble-in-special-land","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2009\/04\/10\/another-poll-shows-trouble-in-special-land\/","title":{"rendered":"Another Poll Shows Trouble In Special Land"},"content":{"rendered":"

The No on 1D\/E Campaign, which recently merged, have released an internal poll (PDF)<\/a> from Tulchin Research.  The data is consistent with a previous PPIC poll<\/a>. Prop 1D (First 5) is slightly ahead 48-42, and Prop 1E (Mental health) is down 44-46. More spin<\/strike> details from the No campaign:<\/p>\n

   *  A solid majority of voters describe the measures as “deceptive” (56%).
\n
   * Nearly half of the voters are concerned they will “cut funding for children and the mentally ill” (45%).
\n
   * There are nearly twice as many voters who strongly oppose Props 1D & 1E.
\n
   * The voters most likely to cast a ballot are more likely to vote NO than less likely voters.
\n
   * “Definite” voters reject Proposition 1E (42% Yes – 48% NO).
\n
   * “Definite” voters split their opinion on Proposition 1D (46% Yes – 45% NO).
\n
   * Nearly 1 in 5 voters (18%) believe that Props 1D & 1E hurt programs and services, particularly for children and the mentally ill.
\n
   * 16% of voters describe the initiatives as “deceptive” or “dishonest.” <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Either way, being below 50% at this point is just a really bad position. It is possible to make up some grouund with a ton of money, but the yes campaign will be swimming upstream from the general drift towards no.  In a low-turnout special election, that drift is likely to be more visible.<\/p>\n

All I’m saying is that if I were on the “Budget Reform Now” campaign, I’d be getting pretty nervous right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The No on 1D\/E Campaign, which recently merged, have released an internal poll (PDF)<\/a> from Tulchin Research.  The data is consistent with a previous PPIC poll<\/a>. Prop 1D (First 5) is slightly ahead 48-42, and Prop 1E (Mental health) is down 44-46. More spin<\/strike> details from the No campaign:<\/p>\n

   *  A solid majority of voters describe the measures as “deceptive” (56%).
\n
   * Nearly half of the voters are concerned they will “cut funding for children and the mentally ill” (45%).
\n
   * There are nearly twice as many voters who strongly oppose Props 1D & 1E.
\n
   * The voters most likely to cast a ballot are more likely to vote NO than less likely voters.
\n
   * “Definite” voters reject Proposition 1E (42% Yes – 48% NO).
\n
   * “Definite” voters split their opinion on Proposition 1D (46% Yes – 45% NO).
\n
   * Nearly 1 in 5 voters (18%) believe that Props 1D & 1E hurt programs and services, particularly for children and the mentally ill.
\n
   * 16% of voters describe the initiatives as “deceptive” or “dishonest.” <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Either way, being below 50% at this point is just a really bad position. It is possible to make up some grouund with a ton of money, but the yes campaign will be swimming upstream from the general drift towards no.  In a low-turnout special election, that drift is likely to be more visible.<\/p>\n

All I’m saying is that if I were on the “Budget Reform Now” campaign, I’d be getting pretty nervous right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[7080,888,634,635,6852],"class_list":["post-8510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-7080","tag-888","tag-634","tag-635","tag-6852"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2dg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8510\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}