That’s the verdict according to a J. Moore Methods poll that dropped over the weekend and that found its way into my hands this afternoon. Remember that this is an open primary – if someone gets more than 50% they win; if not then the top candidates from each party go to a runoff. According to the poll, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads among likely voters (36% have no opinion):<\/p>\n
| <\/TD> \n | Garamendi<\/TD> \n | Rupf<\/TD> \n | DeSaulnier<\/TD> \n | Buchanan<\/TD> \n<\/TR> \n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Support:<\/TD> \n | 24<\/TD> \n | 17<\/TD> \n | 13<\/TD> \n | 10<\/TD> \n<\/TR> \n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Known:<\/TD> \n | 80<\/TD> \n | 20<\/TD> \n | 39<\/TD> \n | 45<\/TD> \n<\/TR> \n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Favorable:<\/TD> \n | 35<\/TD> \n | 9<\/TD> \n | 16<\/TD> \n | 17<\/TD> \n<\/TR> \n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unfavorable:<\/TD> \n | 12<\/TD> \n | 9<\/TD> \n | 13<\/TD> \n | 12<\/TD> \n<\/TR> \n<\/TABLE><\/p>\n (Rupf is Republican Warren Rupf, Sheriff of CoCo County)<\/p>\n The personal ratings are included, which show that Garamendi also has a big name ID and favorability advantage over all his challengers. Voter turnout is projected to be 30%, with 55% Dem, 33% Rep, and 12% DTS.<\/p>\n Of course, Garamendi doesn’t have a 50% lead here, and the election hasn’t even been scheduled yet. There’s time for either DeSaulnier or Buchanan to try and catch up, but it’s going to be a difficult climb. Garamendi’s high public profile and ability to raise money for this campaign will be significant advantages. DeSaulnier, a solid progressive who would also make an excellent member of Congress, can counter with strong on-the-ground support, but it’s unclear if that can trump Garamendi’s built-in advantages.<\/p>\n This leads me to wonder if Buchanan plans to stick around in the race – I can’t see her getting very far against this kind of opposition. Or perhaps DeSaulnier might step back and let Garamendi take it. So far as I can tell, however, both fully intend to continue their run.<\/p>\n Neither Anthony Woods nor Adriel Hampton were included in this poll, but I can’t imagine either one would meaningfully impact the outcome.<\/p>\n So as far as I can tell this is Garamendi’s to lose. We’ll see if this poll shifts the landscape at all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" That’s the verdict according to a J. Moore Methods poll that dropped over the weekend and that found its way into my hands this afternoon. Remember that this is an open primary – if someone gets more than 50% they win; if not then the top candidates from each party go to a runoff. According to the poll, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads among likely voters (36% have no opinion):<\/p>\n
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