{"id":8888,"date":"2009-05-18T04:20:09","date_gmt":"2009-05-18T04:20:09","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2009-05-21T16:15:23","modified_gmt":"2009-05-21T16:15:23","slug":"outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-may-2009-special-election-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2009\/05\/18\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-may-2009-special-election-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 &#8211; May 2009 Special Election Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>(More good stuff. Thanks! &#8211; promoted by Brian Leubitz<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p>With the release of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sos.ca.gov\/elections\/ror\/ror-pages\/15day-stwdsp-09\/ror-050409.htm\">the new registration numbers<\/a>, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and\/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State&#8217;s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.<\/p>\n<p>Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!<\/p>\n<p>And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock&#8217;s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.<\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.swingstateproject.com\/diary\/4970\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-may-2009-special-election-edition\">Swing State Project<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.democracyforcalifornia.com\/blog\/archives\/002698.html\">Democracy for California<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca03_109.gif\">CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.73%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+1.85<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca04_109.gif\">CA-04<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Tom McClintock<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.14%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">45.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+14.69<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+10.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca24_109.gif\">CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Elton Gallegly<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.82%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.99<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca25_109.gif\">CA-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Buck McKeon<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.77%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.29%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+1.52<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca26_109.gif\">CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">David Dreier<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.67%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.50%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.83<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca44_109.gif\">CA-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Ken Calvert<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.63%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+7.77<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca45_109.gif\">CA-45<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Mary Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.81%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.08%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.27<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca48_109.gif\">CA-48<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">John Campbell<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">29.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">44.77%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.37<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca50_109.gif\">CA-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.27%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.87<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Competitive and\/or open state legislature districts are over the flip&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats\/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2\/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats\/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2\/3.<\/p>\n<p><b><u>SENATE<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Republicans (4)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD04.pdf\">SD-04<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Sam Aanestad<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">33.02%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">44.12%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+11.09<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+11.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD12.pdf\">SD-12<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Jeff Denham<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">47.60%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">32.94%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+14.66<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+17.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD18.pdf\">SD-18<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Roy Ashburn<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.88%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">47.62%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.74<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+23.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD36.pdf\">SD-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dennis Hollingsworth<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">28.94%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">46.06%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+17.12<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+14.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Democrats (5)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD16.pdf\">SD-16<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Dean Florez<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">49.59%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">33.10%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+16.49<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+19.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD22.pdf\">SD-22<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Gilbert Cedillo<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">59.01%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">14.66%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+44.35<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+58.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD24.pdf\">SD-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Gloria Romero<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">53.63%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">21.04%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+32.59<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+41.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD34.pdf\">SD-34<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Lou Correa<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">42.84%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">33.45%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+9.39<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+16.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/senate\/SD40.pdf\">SD-40<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Denise Ducheny<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">46.57%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">29.50%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+17.07<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+25.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>ASSEMBLY<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Republicans (16)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD03.pdf\">AD-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Logue<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.80%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.25%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.45<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+1.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD05.pdf\">AD-05<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Roger Niello<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.90%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">38.77%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+0.87<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD25.pdf\">AD-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Tom Berryhill<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.81%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.32%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.51<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+7.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD26.pdf\">AD-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Bill Berryhill<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">42.06%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.23%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+2.82<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD30.pdf\">AD-30<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Danny Gilmore<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">46.28%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">36.59%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+9.69<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD33.pdf\">AD-33<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Sam Blakeslee<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.92%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.69%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.77<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD36.pdf\">AD-36<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Steve Knight<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">39.69%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">38.51%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+1.18<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD37.pdf\">AD-37<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Audra Strickland<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.87%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.34%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.47<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD38.pdf\">AD-38<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Cameron Smyth<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.85%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.91%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+3.06<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD63.pdf\">AD-63<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Bill Emmerson<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">38.00%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.37%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+2.37<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD64.pdf\">AD-64<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Nestande<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.96%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.99%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+6.03<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD65.pdf\">AD-65<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Paul Cook<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">36.82%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.64%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.82<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD68.pdf\">AD-68<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Van Tran<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">32.80%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.16%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.36<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+2.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD70.pdf\">AD-70<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Chuck DeVore<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.20%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">43.36%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+13.16<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+3.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD74.pdf\">AD-74<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Martin Garrick<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.93%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+10.65<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD75.pdf\">AD-75<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#ff0000\">Nathan Fletcher<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">30.72%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.80%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+9.08<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><b><u>Democrats (15)<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD07.pdf\">AD-07<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Noreen Evans<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">52.80%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">23.71%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+29.09<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+43.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD09.pdf\">AD-09<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Dave Jones<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">56.66%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">18.67%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+37.99<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+49.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD10.pdf\">AD-10<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Alyson Huber<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">39.33%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.32%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+0.01<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD15.pdf\">AD-15<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Joan Buchanan<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">40.61%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">36.04%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+4.57<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+16.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD20.pdf\">AD-20<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Alberto Torrico<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">48.61%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">20.17%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+28.44<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+42.3<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD21.pdf\">AD-21<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Ira Ruskin<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">47.27%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">26.75%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+20.52<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+45.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD23.pdf\">AD-23<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Joe Coto<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">51.22%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">18.93%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+32.29<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+44.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD31.pdf\">AD-31<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Juan Arambula<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">49.08%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">33.78%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+15.80<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+26.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD35.pdf\">AD-35<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Pedro Nava<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">48.22%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">27.88%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+20.34<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+35.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD47.pdf\">AD-47<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Karen Bass<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">64.92%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">11.25%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+53.67<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+71.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD50.pdf\">AD-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Hector De La Torre<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">62.00%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">16.13%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+45.87<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+55.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD76.pdf\">AD-76<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">Lori Salda\u00f1a<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">41.94%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">26.85%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+15.09<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+34.4<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD78.pdf\">AD-78<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Martin Block<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">43.08%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">31.46%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+11.62<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+21.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvoter.org\/voter\/maps\/assembly\/AD80.pdf\">AD-80<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><i><font color=\"#0000ff\">Manuel Perez<\/font><\/i><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">45.38%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">36.29%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">D+9.09<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+20.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:<\/p>\n<p>(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70<\/p>\n<p>(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75<\/p>\n<p>(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (&lt;6%) registration edge: 25<\/p>\n<p>(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (&lt;6%) registration edge: 3, 65<\/p>\n<p>(V) Other open seat: 68<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the release of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sos.ca.gov\/elections\/ror\/ror-pages\/15day-stwdsp-09\/ror-050409.htm\">the new registration numbers<\/a>, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and\/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State&#8217;s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.<\/p>\n<p>Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!<\/p>\n<p>And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock&#8217;s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.<\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.swingstateproject.com\/diary\/4970\/outlook-for-the-california-state-legislature-in-2010-may-2009-special-election-edition\">Swing State Project<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.democracyforcalifornia.com\/blog\/archives\/002698.html\">Democracy for California<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>District<\/th>\n<th>Incumbent<\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#0000ff\">DEM<\/font><\/th>\n<th><font color=\"#ff0000\">GOP<\/font><\/th>\n<th>Margin<\/th>\n<th>2008 Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca03_109.gif\">CA-03<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Dan Lungren<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.73%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.58%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+1.85<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.5<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca04_109.gif\">CA-04<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Tom McClintock<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.14%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">45.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+14.69<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">M+10.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca24_109.gif\">CA-24<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Elton Gallegly<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.83%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">41.82%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+5.99<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+2.8<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca25_109.gif\">CA-25<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Buck McKeon<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.77%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">39.29%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+1.52<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+1.1<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca26_109.gif\">CA-26<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">David Dreier<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">35.67%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.50%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.83<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.0<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca44_109.gif\">CA-44<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Ken Calvert<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">34.63%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+7.77<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.9<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca45_109.gif\">CA-45<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Mary Bono Mack<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">37.81%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">42.08%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+4.27<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.6<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca48_109.gif\">CA-48<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">John Campbell<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">29.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">44.77%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+15.37<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+0.7<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><center><a href=\"http:\/\/nationalatlas.gov\/printable\/images\/preview\/congdist\/ca50_109.gif\">CA-50<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">Brian Bilbray<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#0000ff\">31.40%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><font color=\"#ff0000\">40.27%<\/font><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#ff0000\">R+8.87<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td><center><b><font color=\"#0000ff\">O+4.2<\/font><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Competitive and\/or open state legislature districts are over the flip&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[87],"tags":[4468,486,96,563,362,488,278,1667,13,752,3483],"class_list":["post-8888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-87","tag-4468","tag-486","tag-96","tag-563","tag-362","tag-488","tag-278","tag-1667","tag-13","tag-752","tag-3483"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2jm","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/152"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}