{"id":9463,"date":"2009-07-23T02:39:33","date_gmt":"2009-07-23T02:39:33","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2009-07-23T02:39:33","modified_gmt":"2009-07-23T02:39:33","slug":"the-musical-chairs-game-continues-handicapping-ad43","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/2009\/07\/23\/the-musical-chairs-game-continues-handicapping-ad43\/","title":{"rendered":"The musical chairs game continues: handicapping AD-43"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller. &nbsp;And you may be thinking&#8211;why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election? &nbsp;Well, there is a crowded field for this election, which in and of itself will make it interesting. &nbsp;If you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they&#8217;ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and&#8230;Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.<\/p>\n<p>You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat. &nbsp;It might seem like a step back, but it&#8217;s actually a no-brainer. &nbsp;There&#8217;s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there&#8217;s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that&#8217;s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn&#8217;t hurt either.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.<\/p>\n<p>And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43&#8211;which is what this post is about. &nbsp;Yes, it&#8217;s all contingent on Krekorian winning, but that&#8217;s a possibility definite enough to make us consider the consequences.<\/p>\n<p>I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:<\/p>\n<p><i>Adrin Nazarian.<\/i> &nbsp;Nazarian is Krekorian&#8217;s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat. &nbsp;Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian&#8217;s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district&#8217;s population (and which usually turns out in greater numbers than the rest of the district).<\/p>\n<p><i>Michael Amerian.<\/i> &nbsp;Last seen pulling a relatively surprising <a href=\"http:\/\/ens.lacity.org\/clk\/elections\/clkelections304661098_06302009.pdf\">third-place finish<\/a> in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner. &nbsp;Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs.<\/p>\n<p><i>Mike Gatto.<\/i> &nbsp;Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Cantor. &nbsp;Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43. &nbsp;It would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him, especially the ability to raise money&#8211;having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Cantor certainly can&#8217;t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that&#8217;s necessary to win a race like this. &nbsp;Gatto also grew up in the district, which never hurts when it comes to understanding what would motivate the voters.<\/p>\n<p>This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat. &nbsp;But in a race between these three, at the early stage you have to like Gatto&#8217;s chances. &nbsp;As we saw in the CD-32 race back in May, demographics and turnout matter, and people who are tied into the Armenian community do have an advantage. &nbsp;But the presence of more than one Armenian candidate, if it pans out that way, will certainly have a diluting effect, especially if other candidates end up filing. &nbsp;And if the fundraising advantages that Gatto has actually pan out, it seems to me like Gatto would be an early favorite&#8211;for a race that may not even happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller. &nbsp;And you may be thinking&#8211;why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election? &nbsp;Well, there is a crowded field for this election, which in and of itself will make it interesting. &nbsp;If you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they&#8217;ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and&#8230;Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.<\/p>\n<p>You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat. &nbsp;It might seem like a step back, but it&#8217;s actually a no-brainer. &nbsp;There&#8217;s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there&#8217;s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that&#8217;s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn&#8217;t hurt either.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.<\/p>\n<p>And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43&#8211;which is what this post is about. &nbsp;Yes, it&#8217;s all contingent on Krekorian winning, but that&#8217;s a possibility definite enough to make us consider the consequences.<\/p>\n<p>I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:<\/p>\n<p><i>Adrin Nazarian.<\/i> &nbsp;Nazarian is Krekorian&#8217;s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat. &nbsp;Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian&#8217;s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district&#8217;s population (and which usually turns out in greater numbers than the rest of the district).<\/p>\n<p><i>Michael Amerian.<\/i> &nbsp;Last seen pulling a relatively surprising <a href=\"http:\/\/ens.lacity.org\/clk\/elections\/clkelections304661098_06302009.pdf\">third-place finish<\/a> in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner. &nbsp;Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs.<\/p>\n<p><i>Mike Gatto.<\/i> &nbsp;Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Cantor. &nbsp;Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43. &nbsp;It would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him, especially the ability to raise money&#8211;having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Cantor certainly can&#8217;t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that&#8217;s necessary to win a race like this. &nbsp;Gatto also grew up in the district, which never hurts when it comes to understanding what would motivate the voters.<\/p>\n<p>This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat. &nbsp;But in a race between these three, at the early stage you have to like Gatto&#8217;s chances. &nbsp;As we saw in the CD-32 race back in May, demographics and turnout matter, and people who are tied into the Armenian community do have an advantage. &nbsp;But the presence of more than one Armenian candidate, if it pans out that way, will certainly have a diluting effect, especially if other candidates end up filing. &nbsp;And if the fundraising advantages that Gatto has actually pan out, it seems to me like Gatto would be an early favorite&#8211;for a race that may not even happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[437,7625,7628,7626,7624,436,7627],"class_list":["post-9463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-437","tag-7625","tag-7628","tag-7626","tag-7624","tag-436","tag-7627"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Pvhz-2sD","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9463"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9463\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}