Does Steve Young have a chance to win?

From a post by silence in the OC Election Day Diary:

It looks like we’re going to have a general election in December. Its an interesting match-up:
Campbell (R)
Gilchrist (AI)
Young (D)
Tiritilli (G)
Cohen (L)
The real question is whether Gilchrist (the founder of the Minuteman vigilante project) siphons enough votes away from Campbell to enable Young to win in the general election. I’ve got a nasty suspicion that the Republicans might do something like fund Tiritilli to try and offset Gilchrist’s capture of the far right.

Now, I think there are several different questions here.

1) Where did Brewer’s support come from?
Was it,as we discussed earlier, Dems crossing over to vote for her?  Many of these voters would probably support Young over Campbell.  And even if they aren’t Dems, are they sufficiently turned off by Campbell to vote for Young?

2) What will become of the rest of the GOP horde?  
There were a lot of GOP candidates, and a lot of voters for said candidates.  Campbell himself had 46%.  That’s a lot.  He essentially needs to pick up only 4%.  Economics would have you believe that there is no way that Campbell will lose a significant portion of that 46% due to your old preference ordering theory.  In other words, why would people abandon Campbell when they have fewer choices?  So, barring meltdown, he will probably take that 46%.  This puts Young in a difficult position.  It will be hard to get to 46%.

3) What’s the deal with Gilchrist?
Who the hell knows?  But the question remains as whether he can break into any of Campbell’s support.  The great hope for Young has to be that Gilchrist will come on strong in the coming few months.  He should be an attractive candidate for conservatives with his anti-immigration message.  Ultimately, he may force Campbell to move to far to the right for some voters on this issue.

I’ll close with the quote from the propagandizing rag OC Register:

Young, who is making his first foray into elective politics, beat out three other Democrats, including UCI business professor John Graham. Graham had tried three successive times to oust Cox, now chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. But Young got the Democratic Party endorsement after convincing party leaders that he would run an aggressive campaign and was willing to invest substantial personal resources in the effort.

“It’s good news, but it could be better,” Young said. “We need to mobilize the Democratic base and get the donors from that base to pony up the money. That’s where the power is in politics.”

Wylie Aitken, head of the Orange County Democratic Foundation and an engineer of Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s 1996 victory over former Rep. Bob Dornan, reluctantly says he doesn’t believe a Democrat has a chance in the 48th.

“I think Young is an outstanding candidate, more in line with the viewpoints of people living in that community,” said Aitken. “But I don’t think he has any chance. What does that tell you about people who have decided to vote along party lines without any regard of what happens to their neighbors and the rest of the country?”

Indeed what does that say?  Well, Steve Young, in my opinion, gives us the best opportunity to pull off the miracle that it would take to pick up CA-48.  Sure would be great to prove them wrong, wouldn’t it?

CA-11 – Pombo must go!

(Pombo is making the possibility of taking CA-11 a more realistic opportunity. It would be great to capitalize on that. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

In CA-11, Dems have a good fight ahead of them.  Yes, an area Repub heavy in CA!  However, on a closer look, we have a very ripe opportunity to dispose of the current Repub congressman:  Mr. GOP Crony himself: Richard Pombo.

There is a candidate for Dems in the area: Mr. Jerry McNerney.  He has a platform that directly talks about the “Pombo problem” and also address local jobs (a nice term too: “outsource proof”), and a variety of important local issues.

Please recommend/spread the word so the most CA Dems and anyone who can help can get the word out.

Some facts about Richard Pombo:

He’s had ethics issues, including ties to Delay, and it’s been going on for years.  Link Here < http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ethics25sep25,1,759138.story?coll=la-headlines-nation&ctrack=1&cset=true > (registration required, latimes.com)

He’s put his family’s personal gain ahead of his district for years through direct and indirect proposals in Congress.  Link Here < http://www.jerrymcnerney.org/news.asp >

He chairs or is a member of 2 major House committees, including the powerful Resources committee.  Link Here < http://www.house.gov/pombo/member/committee.htm >

He is the notorious individual that most wants to open the ANWR (Alaskan Oil) initiative and US Shale.  Link Here < http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/issues/emr/anwrrpt.htm > and Here < http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/Press/releases/2005/0621oilshale.htm >

He wants to allow National Parks’ naming rights to be sold (Halliburton’s Yosemite anyone?).  Link Here < http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050924/ap_on_re_us/arctic_refuge >

He is also a major Repub fundraiser, and has put together donation schemes for pools of money to hard to win Repub areas for years.  Link Here < http://www.jerrymcnerney.org/news.asp >

Many opinions have been written that compared him to a Trent Lott or Tom Delay type who has a lot of power behind the scenes.  Someone even called him “further right than Bush”.

He has a Dem candidate Jerry McNerney running against him.  Jerry has an energy/business background, and is an environmentalist.  He went into the 2004 election at the last minute on a write-in campaign that got 40% of the vote!  Not bad for a last minute write-in campaign.  

There is also another new Dem candidate Steve Filson, however his views/positions are unknown, so I’m withholding an opinion on him for now.

Now, it’s time to take down Pombo on 2006.

Please, recommend this diary and pass it along to Dems and moderates you know in California.

If you are a Dem in CA-11, read this article about Pombo < http://www.jerrymcnerney.org/news.asp > and anyone who wants to see a major Repub go down in 2006 – support and volunteer for Jerry McNerney. < http://www.jerrymcnerney.org/ >

Thanks!

Wake Up: We have a battle on our hands

(A reminder. Arnold’s props can not succeed. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

(crossposted on dailykos, Booman and MyLeftWing)

We have been telling you for weeks now that this fight not only is extremely important, but we have a damn good chance of losing.  You want proof?  Well you got it.  SUSA just released their first poll of likely voters on the initiative fight and the numbers are horrible.

Proposition 73:

Parental notification for abortions.

SUSA: Yes 59% No 39% Undecided 2%

(note: the Alliance is not working on this issue)

Proposition 74

The “Blame New Teachers Act” would raise from two year to five years the length of time until teachers are able to gain basic job protections.  This gives them protection against at will firing and entitles them to a hearing before dismissal.  There is no research that shows increasing the probationary period will do anything to improve teacher quality.  Instead,  is a deliberate attack against the  teachers in retribution for fights over maintaining education funding and backing other progressive causes. For a taste of the real ageda of the people behind proposition 74, note the “McCarthy clause”  – included in the grounds for dismissal is “Knowing membership by the employee in the Communist Party.”

What’s at stake: The ability to attract new teachers at a time when baby boomers are retiring and the population of California continues to grow.  It is estimated that California will have to hire 100,000 new teachers in the next decade.

SUSA: Yes 55% No 44% Undecided 2%

Proposition 75:

The “Paycheck Deception Act” would require public employee unions to receive written permission every single year from their members authorizing using their dues money for political activities.  It unfairly targets teachers, nurses, firefighters, police and other public employees with restrictions that don’t apply to other groups or corporations, which regularly spend shareholder money on politics without permission.  Prop. 75 is a deliberate attack on public employees’ ability to oppose the Governor’s agenda, including cutes to education and health care.  

Their tactics have been to create a “phenomenon of anger” towards the unions.  The major sponsor Lew Ulher is an unabashed McCarthyite, former leader of the right-wing extremist John Birch Society and current head of the National Tax Limitation Committee.

What’s at stake: Funding for progressives and their causes.  This initiative would eliminate a major source of funding for traditionally Democratic goals like education funding, benefits for those who die in the line of duty, retirement benefits and heath care.  With union money out of the picture, Norquist inspired Republicans will have a much easier time getting their extremist agenda passed.  If this thing is approved, expect to see it popping up in other states across the country.

SUSA: Yes 60% No 37% Undecided 3%

Proposition 76

The “Cuts School Funding Act” would devastate our public schools and other vital services, cutting school funding by over $4 billion every year – $600 per student, leading to more overcrowded classrooms, teacher layoffs, and fewer textbooks and classroom materials. Our schools lost two billion dollars when Governor Schwarzenegger broke his promise to repay the money he took from education, and if this initiative passes, the Governor will never have to repay that money to our schools. It also overturns the voter-approved Proposition 98, eliminating the minimum funding guarantee for education. It also cuts funding for local government — cutting police and firefighters, as well as local health care services that protect children and the elderly. This initiative hurts our most vulnerable populations including the sick, the elderly and the young.

What’s at stake: All of the above, plus under this initiative Governor could declare a “fiscal emergency” and cut funding for vital services like education, health care, fire and police without approval from anyone else.

SUSA: Yes 58% No 38% Undecided 6%

Proposition 77

Proposition 77, unlike Ohio is a complicated, ineffectual attempt to reform the redistricting process and is opposed by respected government reformers and a broad coalition of citizens’ groups.  It hands over the redistricting reins to a panel of three retired judges who are picked by legislators.  The judges are explicitly prohibited from including any consideration of “communities of interest” while redistricting. This essentially eliminates any future challenges by community and minority groups seeking to retain voting power for their communities.  There is a right way to create an independent redistrict method and a wrong one.  Just because they call it reform does not make it so.

What’s at stake: Potential mid-decade redistricting.  The initiative gives the go-ahead to immediately create new maps with data that is 5 years old.  The new maps would be enforced then sent back to the voters for approval.  “If voters reject redistricting plans, the entire process starts over – new judges, new plans, more elections, and more political bickering – wasting millions of tax dollars.  This could go on indefinitely… with election after election… until voters finally approve… all at taxpayer expense.”

SUSA: Yes 59% No 36% Undecided 6%
————————————————–

Look, this poll is an outlier from other numbers we have seen.  But this is a big wakeup call to those who have not been paying attention to this race.  Enormously important issues are at stake and we could seriously lose.  These initiatives will have repercussions for decades if passed and tactics used here are sure to be replicated across the country.

Stop them now.  Join the Alliance for a Better California and help us defeat Arnold and his cronies.

Here is how you can help

Come over to the BetterCA community to learn more about the issues and join the discussion.  The trolls have found us so there is always a battle going on.  You can watch our ads, comment in the discussion forum, and print out some flyers.

Check out our Netroots page for more ideas on how to get involved.

Sound the alarm, spread the word.  We need to get a buzz going about this battle.  Post here, recommend our diaries and create your own.  Blog on your own site, email your friends and family.

If you are in California get in touch with your local Alliance headquarters, which are located all over the state.  We are walking on the weekends, calling most nights and they are always looking for more volunteers.  Start thinking ahead about setting time aside for election weekend.  We are going to need thousands of volunteers if we are going to win.

NorCal Alliance HQs
SoCal Alliance HQs
LACounty Alliance HQs