Field Poll
Arnold’s Props:
Field Poll for 74-77 (Nov 1)
Field Poll for 74-77 + 80 (Sep 5)
74, 76, 77 (June 21, 2005)
Special election in general (feb 24, 2005)
73, 78, 79
Field Poll for 73, 78, 79 (nov. 2)
Field Poll for 73, 78, 79 (sep. 6)
Field Poll for 73, 78, 79 +75 (June 22, 2005)
PPIC Polls
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
LA Times Poll (Nov 1)
Polimetrix
November 6, 2005 Special election Poll
October 31, 2005 Special Election Poll
Validation (?) of Polimetrix techniques
Stanford/Knowledge Ventures Poll (Oct 18)
Survey USA
Nov. 6, 2005
First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before…
Q
Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to…
Q
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written…
Q
Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The…
Q
Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts….
Nov 1, 2005
First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before…
Q
Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to…
Q
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written…
Q
(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION A, ORIGINAL SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, INCLUDES TRACKING GRAPHS FROM PREVIOUS RELEASES): Next, Proposition 76….
Q
(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION B, EXPANDED SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, NO TRACKING DATA AVAILABLE): Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits…
Q
(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION C: FURTHER EXPANDED SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, NO TRACKING DATA AVAILABLE): Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76…
Q
Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts….
October 18, 2005
First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before…
Q
Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to…
Q
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written…
Q
Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If…
Q
Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts….
October 3, 2005
First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before…
Q
Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to…
Q
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written…
Q
Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If…
Q
Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts….
Polling accuracy in general:
The Big Chart from SUSA
Dan Weintraub at Sac Bee:
Polling accuracy
These two charts are from SurveyUSA. I have not checked the math, but they purport to average the “error rate” by the six pollsters that surveyed the special election. The first chart looks at only the five props that SurveyUSA polled, and how all the pollsters did on those measures. The second chart looks at each outfit’s rate for all the props they polled. Note that many pollsters would quibble at the use of the word “error” since they consider their surveys to be snapshots in time which, unless taken on election day, can never be said to be wrong. Also note that the much maligned Field Poll does pretty well using either measure. And see my added note below regarding the PPIC.
PROPS 73-77 ONLY
POLLSTER AVG. ERROR
Field 3.36
SurveyUSA 5.32
PPIC 5.76
Stanford/KN 5.96
Polimetrix 6.24
LA Times 7.44
BY ALL PROPS POLLED
NO. POLLSTER ERROR
5 SurveyUSA 5.32
8 Field 6.05
7 Polimetrix 7.20
8 LA Times 7.85
8 Stanford/KN 8.80
7 PPIC 9.57
NOTE: Mark Baldassare at PPIC notes in an email that the poll used in this comparison for the first chart came out of the field 16 days before the election, and some of the results in the second chart reflct a poll that was completed 50 days before the election. He is right that it’s not fair to compare those results to polls that were done within days of the vote. But it’s also true that the media and political players cite his polls as reflecting the state of mind of the voters right up until Election Day, so it’s worth reminding folks that, in most cases, the data they are citing is quite old.
