Will they or won’t they?  Will one emerge as a challenger?  Will he go unchallenged?

Conservative Republicans Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach are leaving the door open to compete against Brian Bilbray, their party’s candidate for the 50th District congressional seat.

While Bilbray is locked in a race against Democrat Francine Busby to determine who will represent the 50th through the remainder of convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s term won in 2004, Bilbray may also have to watch his back and play defense against one or more Republican challengers in the parallel primary election that will occur at the same time in June.

More on Bilbray’s Danger on the Right.

The San Diego Union Tribune continues to follow the key potential Republican challengers.

Some conservative activists are calling for an alternative to Bilbray in the primary. Most are looking to Roach, who has the personal wealth to run a credible campaign, bucking the party. He spent at least $1.8 million of his own money in the recent campaign.

Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, a conservative favorite but distant third-place finisher among the GOP candidates Tuesday, said he hasn’t considered campaigning for the June primary, but “I will walk through the door God opens for me in the future.” Businessman Alan Uke, who finished fifth among Republicans, said he doubts he’ll mount a campaign but hasn’t decided for sure.

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California Republican Assembly president Mike Spence said his independent group would actively campaign against Bilbray in the primary if there is “a credible conservative candidate” in the race. He said he has spoken with people from Roach’s campaign.

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In his influential conservative blog, former state Republican executive director Jon Fleischman suggested that it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Busby won six months in Congress, if it allows Roach to be elected to the next two-year term.

Is the California Republican Party skewed so far to the right and so distorted by ideology, that it is willing to risk the loss of this seat in congress to keep it out of the hands of a fellow Republican? Spence and Fleischman are the voices of a party that doesn’t want Bilbray in a safe and secure seat in congress for the next decade or two. Can their strategy succeed?

The North County Times has an initial breakdown of voting patterns in the 50th CD special election.

The results aren’t really surprising. Democrat Francine Busby did extremely well in the coastal communities of the district. If the decision were left to the coast, Busby would be on her way to congress. Inland, Busby led the 18 candidate field in every community, but by much narrower margins.

Roach and Bilbray showed a much weaker performance than Busby at coastal community polls than they did in the election as a whole. Bilbray won 15.27 percent of the votes districtwide, but at coastal polling stations, his share came to 12.38 percent. Similarly, Roach won 14.50 percent of the votes districtwide and 11.17 percent at coastal polling stations.

However, a very different pattern emerged in the inland communities of Escondido, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, Rancho Santa Fe and San Marcos. While Busby won 54.8 percent of the votes on the coast, she only earned a 37.7 percent share of votes in the inland communities. Meanwhile, Roach and Bilbray performed much better in inland areas than they did on the coast.

Whereas Bilbray’s coastal share stood at 12.38 percent, he scored an average of 16.45 percent at inland polling stations. For Roach, the coastal versus inland contrast was even more dramatic. He earned a 11.17 percent share of the votes at coastal polling stations, but 20.13 percent inland.

Busby will need to hold the coast and change some minds in the more staunchly conservative inland communities to give her the margin she needs in June.

President Bush is plumbing new lows in California according to the most recent Field Poll.

The appraisal of the job President Bush is doing has reached a new low among California voters and is among the lowest of any president in modern history, according to a new Field Poll.

Only 32 percent of the registered California voters questioned by the nonpartisan public opinion survey said they approved of the job Bush is doing, compared to 62 percent who did not.

Bush’s popularity, or lack of same, has fallen to a point where he is in danger of matching or falling below Richard Nixon’s bellweather low rating of 24%. Bush has already fallen below his father’s lowest California rating (37%) and, with this recent poll, managed to squeeze below Jimmy Carter (33%).

“They were just about to be voted out of office, or in the case of Richard Nixon, he was about to resign,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “Bush still has more than two years to go, so I think we’re in somewhat uncharted territory.”

“Uncharted territory!”

Conservative Republicans aren’t happy about Brian Bilbray’s election to the post of party standard bearer in the 50th Congressional District. As we noted yesterday, the convoluted process of selecting convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s replacement leaves the door open for a serious challenge from the Republican right directed at Bilbray.

Over at the conservative, Flashreport, Jon Fleischman (former Executive Director of the California Republican Party) looks at June’s multi-purpose election process and suggests that before leaving the field to Bilbray, Republicans need to do some soul searching. In essence, if conservative Republicans aren’t willing to face the prospect of seeing Brian Bilbray in congress for “the next two decades,” the June primary becomes critical.

…Republican voters will also have their first real opportunity, in a contest where ONLY REPUBLICANS will vote, to choose their nominee for the November show down with Busby.

Of course, if the June Republican primary ballot looks like Tuesday’s special election ballot, will the result be any different? As long as three conservatives (Roach, Kaloogian, Morrow) run against Bilbray, Bilbray wins. In addition, Bilbray will have the positive carry-over effect that comes from voters selecting him in his head-to-head race with Busby and then turning the page to the Republican primary list and seeing his name again. Considering Bilbray’s advantages, for a conservative Republican to win the primary, that person will have to convince one or both of his conservative soul mates to abandon the quest.

For Fleischman, that person is Eric Roach.

I’m not in a position to tell readers whether Eric Roach will gear up a campaign for Congress in a closed June primary. But I will tell you this — if he can unify conservatives around the idea that a hard-charger who will make a difference within the governing GOP majority in Washington, who will join the Republican Study Committee (the conservative caucus in the House) and fight for real change should represent the 50th long-term — then he should seriously think about it.

Will their conservative ideology drive 50th District Republicans to follow such a dangerous and divisive path?