I was going through PowerPAC’s April poll and just noticed the question regarding 3 Strikes.  Politicians seem to think it’s some sort of third rail.  It’s not:

Changing three strikes and you’re out law: 71 percent of Anglos and 78 percent of Latinos support changing the current law, with Latinos much more likely to strongly support changing the law (61% strongly support), though Anglos still strongly support changing it with just shy of a majority (48%) strongly supporting this change. Only 26 percent of Anglos and 19 percent of Latinos oppose changing the law. (PowerPAC 4/06)

I would like to see some honest debate about this issue in the gubenatorial election.  Our prisons will not be fixed by merely building more.  Revisions of 3 strikes and drug laws are necessary to add rehabilitation capacity.  Our rate of recidivism (70%) is outrageous, and locking people up in prisons where the only thing they learn is new crime skills is not the answer.

Latinos are a typically underpolled minority, and Latino votes will make a huge impact  partially because of language issues, but also for a lundry list of other reasons.  That undercounting could end up having a big impact this November, as even national news sources (h/t CPR) are picking up the growing discontent with the Governator amongst Latinos.

[Arnold Schwarzenegger] “cut the budget for the schools,” Gonzales said. Her answer is not unusual in this heavily Hispanic section of Los Angeles County. Mentioning the Republican governor elicits an almost invariably negative opinion about him.

The harsh views illustrate how far Schwarzenegger’s star has fallen among Hispanics since the heady days of the 2003 recall election, when he won 32 percent of their vote. That accomplishment was magnified because his main Democratic opponent was Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Hispanic.

Today, polls indicate Schwarzenegger’s support among Hispanic voters is much lower as he seeks re-election. A recent survey by San Jose State University found 58 percent supported his Democratic rival, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, while just 12 percent supported the governor.  (ABC News 7/22/06)

It’s now a well-known cliche (and cited in the ABC News article) that the Governor must win at least a third of the Latino vote in order to win the race.  The best poll I’ve seen of Latino issues is the PowerPac poll that has Arnold with 25% support.  However, that poll is a bit old.  More recent polls have him a bit lower.  If Latino voter participation is high, I think we might be in store for a surprising result come November.