CA-11: Larry Sabato picks McNerney over Pombo

From Univ of VA, Larry Sabato picks Jerry McNerney to take out anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo:

Jerry McNerney (D) will unseat Rep. Richard Pombo (R). Our sources on the ground tell us that momentum is firmly in McNerney’s court and that late campaign help from Bill Clinton and scores of environmental groups is giving Resources Committee Chair Pombo a run for his money. Schwarzenegger’s get-out-the-vote operation may yet save Pombo, but we will go out on a limb and tap McNerney to win in an upset.

Sabato also thinks Doolittle will squeak by in the Fourth, let’s show him his crystal ball was a bit foggy on that one.

Election Night Events

On the flip, I’ll begin building a database of election night events.  Please add any events in the comments here.

Angelides for Governor
8pm at the Sheraton Grand Hotel, 1230 J Street, Sacramento.
Please RSVP to [email protected] or call 415-402-0920.

CA-11: Jerry McNerney
ELECTION NIGHT PARTY, after polls close, 8 PM

San Ramon Golf Club
9430 Fircrest Lane
San Ramon, CA 94583

CA-50, Busby Election Night Party! 8:00p.m.
  Join us at D Street Bar & Grill, located at 485 S. Coast Hwy. 101 in Encinitas for an evening of celebration.
  Info: Seena Seward at 760.479.0114 or [email protected]
  Download a printable invitation(PDF).

Odds and Ends 11/6

One more day folks.  Let’s make sure we don’t lose any races because our voters didn’t make it to the polls.  Call, walk, whatever. You know what to do.

Teasers: Another Datamar poll, Arnold has a restraining order against McClintock to keep him 100 miles away at all times,  some journalistic fawning over Arnold, Pelosi push back and more!

  • Datamar (PDF) has another poll out (they just released one on 11/1).  Same stuff really.  Arnold’s lead (54-36_ is still bigger than DiFi’s lead (54-38). No way that happens.
    • Bonds: 1A-1E passing, except 1C, the housing bond. 84 passing
    • 85 (Parental Notification) failing.  That’s a good sign, because Datamar has a likely voter model tilted towards conservatives.
    • 86-89 all below water. 90 is ahead, but just barely this time (46-45). This is with their summary saying it’s about Eminent Domain, so this propably a good sign.
  • LAT: Arnold hid from Republicans down-ticket, Angelides chased around the state. Don’t trust that though, because Arnold has his volunteers getting the vote out for McClintock.  We cannot afford Tom McClintock being our Lt. Gov.  The man is dangerous.
  • There are a series of journalists fawning over Arnold:
    • Carla Marinucci: Arnold is a visionary for acting like a moderate in public; he can really talk the moderate talk. Me: Too bad he can’t walk the moderate walk.
    • SacBee : Down-ballot effect from Arnold’s genius.
    • George Skelton is more reflective.  He looks back at how Arnold won by defining his message and hoodwinking the public with his “moderate” image.
  • One issue business, labor, environmentalists, etc. agree on: Prop 90 is a bad idea.
  • Turnout will be low.  We need to make sure our voters go out and cast their ballots.  We can’t afford a Lt. Gov. McClintock or another four years of McPherson. We need Garamendi and Bowen to win those elections.
  • Who really runs the Legislature in the era of term limits? The staffers.
  • The GOP has been trying this “Where’s Pelosi? We can’t find her.” line.  Um, perhaps they missed 60 minutes two weeks ago, or they don’t attend Democratic campaign rallies.  Um, strange, we can’t seem to find her on FOX News?  Where is she.  Funny part about this? Chris Wallace, yes the one who got smacked down by the Big Dog, rejected John Boehner’s “Where’s Pelosi” line by saying she was out campaigning.  I must admit that I was pretty darn surprised.
  • And off topic from the election: UC-Irvine might build a law school. Great, just what we need in California, more lawyers.
  • (CA-45) Desert Pride Parade in Palm Springs

    A glorious day for David Roth (CA-45th) and our happy throng of Americans to march in the Desert Pride Parade in Palm Springs.  Look who the gay community in Palm Springs is for:
    Photobucket - Video and Image HostingPhotobucket - Video and Image HostingPhotobucket - Video and Image HostingPhotobucket - Video and Image Hosting

    GOTV precinct captains have our orders, the final call lists are getting together, and David, as usual, was talking with the voters all day.  The local paper, The Desert Sun, recapped the candidates in today’s edition.  My home delivered print edition showed both candidates on the front page, with equal space devoted to their respective articles.  Look how the web version formats it.  The panic among the shills and GOP machine is palpable.  GO ROTH!

    I was glad to see that Diana Marrero wrote the Mary Bono section, as she is, I believe, based in Washington, and covered Bono without spin in the past.  In fact, The Desert Sun buried one of her articles on Mary Bono.  Roth’s campaign found it on Lexis/Nexis, the print readership got some whitewash hackery for Bono instead:

    October 3, 2006 Tuesday
     SECTION: Pg. ARC
     LENGTH: 331 words
     HEADLINE: Foley close to Bonos
     BYLINE: DIANA MARRERO
     DATELINE: WASHINGTON

    BODY:
    Rep. Mary Bono and her late husband, Sonny, had ties to former lawmaker Mark Foley, who recently resigned from Congress amid scandal.
    An avid rock fan, Foley became friends with Sonny Bono after the two joined the ranks of House Republicans in 1994.

    But Bono, R-Palm Springs, denied having any personal ties to Foley on Monday, adding that she was shocked to learn the Florida Republican had reportedly sent explicit Internet messages to teenage boys.
    Her spokesman, Jason Vasquez, said Bono did not know whether her late husband and Foley had been close.

    “The inappropriate conduct by former Rep. Mark Foley is unacceptable and abhorrent,” Bono said in a statement. “Mr. Foley’s actions go against the values and responsibilities upheld by Congress. If he has violated the law, he should be prosecuted.”

    In an interview with the Palm Beach Post in 2003, Foley said he had been friends with the couple. He loved the entertainment scene so much that Mary and Sonny Bono began calling him “Hollywood,” he told the Post.
    Sonny Bono and Foley formed a Republican Entertainment Industry Task Force to boost ties between Republicans and entertainment industry executives.
    When Sonny Bono died eight years ago, Foley was among a group of lawmakers who flew to California for the funeral. Later, Mary Bono sold Foley her late husband’s 1994 Jeep Wrangler.

    Before Sonny Bono died, the former singer helped raise campaign cash for Foley. In 1998, the Florida lawmaker gave Mary Bono a $1,000 contribution, for her campaign to succeed her late husband in Congress.

    Mary Bono now co-chairs the Recording Arts and Sciences Congressional Caucus, of which Foley was a member. Mary Bono has also worked with Foley on legislation, signing on as a co-sponsor earlier this year on a bill Foley introduced to strengthen Congress’ scrutiny over the sales of ports and other properties to foreign buyers.
    —-
    Contact reporter Diana Marrero at [email protected].

    The Desert Sun blacks out coverage negative to Bono or positive for Roth, doesn’t do much to mask the fact, either.  That sense of Republican entitlement dies hard.  But die it must.

    To the polls!  GOTV!

    I’m pulling together MapQuest prints of the polling areas, caller lists and schedules, thinking I’d better clean this house if people are actually coming in to drop off data, when what to my bloodshot eyes should appear but some helpful pressure from Josh Marshall:

    (November 05, 2006 — 11:51 PM EDT // link)

    More and more reports coming in of irate voters calling various House Democratic campaigns complaining about the repeat-call-back robocalls.

    In other words, these are the harassing calls paid for by the NRCC made to appear that they’re from the Democratic campaign. And a lot of angry voters are getting fooled by the scam, it seems.

    Take this and the tightening polls together and you get one net result: this election is going to be decided on the ground. It’s in the hands of the folks running the get-out-the-vote operations, manning the phone banks, helping people get to the polls. The Republicans are going to do their best to scam their way through this one. So it’s up to the people on the ground to make sure they don’t get away with it. If you’re in the GOTV operation, it’s all up to you.

    — Josh Marshall

    Put me in, coach.  

    CA-11: Michael J Fox endorses Jerry for his stem cell positions

    Michael J Fox, who is fighting a very public battle against Parkinson’s disease, has endorsed Jerry McNerney for Congress over his Republican opponent, Richard Pombo.  Jerry strongly supports stem cell research, unlike Pombo, who voted against the Castle stem cell research bill (Google cache of a PDF here)  Just one more reason to vote for Jerry!

    In the extended, you will find the full press release.

    Today Michael J. Fox strongly endorsed Democratic Congressional candidate Jerry McNerney. As a vocal proponent of medical research, Fox is supporting candidates who support all forms of stem cell research in races where their opponents simply do not.

    “America is about hope, about promise, about always moving forward, and we deserve leaders who are willing to deliver that hope to their constituents,” Fox stated.

    “The idea of restricting one of the most promising areas of research is shortsighted. We have no way of knowing where the next break will emerge,” Fox continued.

    Stem cell research has the potential to improve the lives of millions of people living with diseases and disorders including cancer, diabetes, spinal cord injuries, heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and even Parkinson’s disease.

    Fox is committed to electing to Congress individuals like Jerry McNerney who will support expanding the current policy on stem cell research. McNerney’s opponent, Rep. Richard Pombo, voted to uphold President George W. Bush’s veto of the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act in July 2006 and had previously voted against the legislation.

    “I enthusiastically support and endorse Jerry McNerney for Congress. By supporting stem cell research, Jerry McNerney puts America on a path that speaks to who we are as a nation,” Fox concluded.