Over at CMJ, Katie Merrill lists her betting lines on the 2008 Democratic Presidential field. Setting aside the fact her lines add up to a total probability of 196% (meaning over time she should expect to pay out $2 for every $1 bet), she says:
Her opportunity: Sen. Clinton has just begun her campaign. Her web announcement was virtually flawless, and reintroduced her as a softer, more approachable candidate.
First off, Clinton has not just begun her campaign. The same night she announced the opening skit on Saturday Night Live was about how Hillary expected everyone to know she had been running since she was five.
Maybe the next line was a joke (web announcement = virtually flawless…hehe). But Clinton’s web announcement was a great example of the problems facing Hillary Clinton’s campaign in both strategy and execution.
I don’t know why Merrill writes about online politics, by her admission and example she doesn’t get it. So let me look at a couple of Clinton’s internet problems during the first week and why they are revealing the problems facing her “inevitability” campaign.
Online Ad Buy Disaster – When Hillary Clinton announced, her campaign made a very interesting Blog Ad buy (including this site). Instead of playing it smart by just buying the Advertise Liberally network, the campaign chose some liberal blogs (but not others) and instead spent money on some of the most expensive conservative sites. At first the Clinton campaign defended the buy with Phil Singer telling the Hotline, “We’re on some conservative sites because we’re not ceding any territory.” But within 48 hours the Clinton camp had flipped and began paying the conservitive blogs to not run the ad.
Not only did this anger key online voices on a tactical level, but the strategy of trying to appeal to the furthest right fringe is something that is routinely mocked online. In short, the episode illustrates a disturbing pattern of Clinton seeking in vain approval from the far right in a way that pisses off the left, followed by a reversal that in the end means everyone is unhappy.
Disconnect with Netroots – The next problem is that the Clinton Team tried to sell the idea that they had support online. Katie Merrill wasn’t the only sucker, the ultra-conservative Wall Street Journal also took the bait hook, line, and sinker. Not surprisingly, this whopper was debunked with not one, but two brutal front pages posts on Daily Kos. In short, the Clinton campaign was very publicly busted for cherry picking quotes to try and create a false reality where what they were seeking made sense. This disconnect is being tag-teamed on progressive talk radio as the blogs discuss what was said and the radio hosts read what was written online.
The Me Campaign vs. Progressive Movement – The other major fracture line that is developing online is the way that Clinton is running the ultimate vanity campaign. She isn’t trying to help the Democratic Party by the way she runs, in fact most people agree that if she is the nominee down-ticket Democrats across most of the country will be screwed. If you want to see how her announcement solidified this conception, look no further than how she is collecting money. Instead of following the smart candidates and using ActBlue (the backbone of distributed online fundraising), Clinton is instead using a closed, in house system which will not allow her supporters to support other Democrats down the road. In fact, in the first week Clinton has not inspired a single netroots donation:
Taking together, her anything-but flawless web announcement is creating the narrative that she is a selfish candidate who will do anything and say anything to advance her own ambition.