No Hillary Clinton Inevitability

Over at CMJ, Katie Merrill lists her betting lines on the 2008 Democratic Presidential field. Setting aside the fact her lines add up to a total probability of 196% (meaning over time she should expect to pay out $2 for every $1 bet), she says:

Her opportunity: Sen. Clinton has just begun her campaign. Her web announcement was virtually flawless, and reintroduced her as a softer, more approachable candidate.

First off, Clinton has not just begun her campaign. The same night she announced the opening skit on Saturday Night Live was about how Hillary expected everyone to know she had been running since she was five.

Maybe the next line was a joke (web announcement = virtually flawless…hehe). But Clinton’s web announcement was a great example of the problems facing Hillary Clinton’s campaign in both strategy and execution.

I don’t know why Merrill writes about online politics, by her admission and example she doesn’t get it. So let me look at a couple of Clinton’s internet problems during the first week and why they are revealing the problems facing her “inevitability” campaign.

Online Ad Buy Disaster – When Hillary Clinton announced, her campaign made a very interesting Blog Ad buy (including this site). Instead of playing it smart by just buying the Advertise Liberally network, the campaign chose some liberal blogs (but not others) and instead spent money on some of the most expensive conservative sites. At first the Clinton campaign defended the buy with Phil Singer telling the Hotline, “We’re on some conservative sites because we’re not ceding any territory.” But within 48 hours the Clinton camp had flipped and began paying the conservitive blogs to not run the ad.

Not only did this anger key online voices on a tactical level, but the strategy of trying to appeal to the furthest right fringe is something that is routinely mocked online. In short, the episode illustrates a disturbing pattern of Clinton seeking in vain approval from the far right in a way that pisses off the left, followed by a reversal that in the end means everyone is unhappy.

Disconnect with Netroots – The next problem is that the Clinton Team tried to sell the idea that they had support online. Katie Merrill wasn’t the only sucker, the ultra-conservative Wall Street Journal also took the bait hook, line, and sinker. Not surprisingly, this whopper was debunked with not one, but two brutal front pages posts on Daily Kos. In short, the Clinton campaign was very publicly busted for cherry picking quotes to try and create a false reality where what they were seeking made sense. This disconnect is being tag-teamed on progressive talk radio as the blogs discuss what was said and the radio hosts read what was written online.

The Me Campaign vs. Progressive Movement – The other major fracture line that is developing online is the way that Clinton is running the ultimate vanity campaign. She isn’t trying to help the Democratic Party by the way she runs, in fact most people agree that if she is the nominee down-ticket Democrats across most of the country will be screwed. If you want to see how her announcement solidified this conception, look no further than how she is collecting money. Instead of following the smart candidates and using ActBlue (the backbone of distributed online fundraising), Clinton is instead using a closed, in house system which will not allow her supporters to support other Democrats down the road. In fact, in the first week Clinton has not inspired a single netroots donation:

Taking together, her anything-but flawless web announcement is creating the narrative that she is a selfish candidate who will do anything and say anything to advance her own ambition.

No HillaryCare Inevitability

(Cross-posted from Working Californians)

We are starting to see a new line of attack on health care reform.  Call it HillaryCare inevitability.  Republicans and their friends the big HMOs are pushing the notion that any health care proposal will suffer the fate of Clinton’s health care proposal from the mid-nineties.  With so many people attacking various pieces of the proposals on the table, they claim it will die a death of a thousand paper cuts.

Any time you see them refer to it as ArnoldCare they are trying to draw the analogy and push forward this argument.  This is from the LAT business section today:

As one might expect from somebody who has been in and around politics most of her life, Hillary Rodham Clinton launched her campaign by leavening the optimism with a bit of caution.

“The debate will be a vigorous one,” she said. “We want people to become informed in order to rebut the kinds of attacks, the misinformation, the advertising campaigns that will be stirred up in the next months.”

Although they might well apply, these words were not part of Clinton’s announcement last week that she’s running for president. They were uttered, instead, more than 13 years ago, as the then-first lady and principal White House healthcare advisor hit the road to sell her husband’s proposal to revamp the country’s medical-industrial complex.

In the end, of course, her remarks turned out to be dead-on. Relentless condemnation, a slew of half-truths and a multimillion-dollar ad blitz – much of it generated by the business community – killed off HillaryCare, as the critics branded it.

Now we have ArnoldCare, and it’s hard not to be overwhelmed by a sense of deja vu.

Arnold and Hillary are both trying to reform the private industry health care industry, but they are proposing different solutions.  A lot has changed in 13 years and many  lessons were learned from that debacle.  The business interests are already trying the same tactics, including early advertising, but we are ready to push back.  We know we have the public’s support for significant reform and what happened to Clinton’s proposal does not have to occur again.

Let’s fight this meme before it starts.

Google Seeks to Defuse “Googlebombs”

Google announced today that it has implemented new algorithms to stop the practice of “Googlebombing” — the practice of manipulating links to move certain webpages toward the top of search results.  This has been a tactic of the Netroots in the past, and recently Chris Bowers called for a “Googlebomb” to make negative stories about John McCain appear higher in Google search results.