OK, I’ll admit, I haven’t heard anything about Lt. Gov. John Garamendi actually considering running for the 3rd, (although there have been rumors that he’s considering the recently-vacated 10th, in addition to the 2010 gubernatorial race), but I caught wind of a facebook group urging him to consider the 3rd recently, and I think it’s a great idea for a couple reasons.
First, the 3rd has been growing more and more Democratic over the past decade (current #s: D-38%, R-40%, DTS-18%), and Lungren’s 5.5% victory over underfunded, undersupported Dem candidate Bill Durston looks a lot weaker when you figure that the Peace and Freedom candidate pulled 4% in the same race. Given the foreclosures devastating the 3rd, and the long term secular shift in the greater Sacramento area towards a left of center Democrat+Decline to State majority, a big name candidate with strong support from the party might be able to beat Lungren.
Second, Garamendi’s actually from the area, unlike SoCal carpetbagger Lungren (who, to his credit, does represent a significant demographic of SoCal transplant McMansion types in the district). He knows the area and the issues pretty well, having represented it at the state level for some time. Having a congressional advocate for the delta who understands water issues would help a lot too.
Third, the sad fact of the Gubernatorial race is that the money race looms over everything, and Garamendi’s said too many reasonable things of late to rake in those fundraising dollars. In the 3rd, he’d be a bigger fish in a smaller pool.
Fourth, there are already a ton of Democrats running for the 10th, and to date noone is making so much as noises for the 3rd. It would be a better allocation of candidates to force the GOP to play defense everywhere than to focus everybody on one safe seat.
Finally, from a strictly selfish perspective, Garamendi taking Lungren out in the 3rd would significantly reduce the likelihood in the post-2010 redistricting that Yolo County has to put up with some Sacramento Valley wingnut for a congressman. The 3rd has often been a sort of south Sac Valley district, and having Garamendi in that seat when the State Legislature draws up the new map in 2011 (Prop. 11 only affects redistricting at the state level, not congressional) makes it more likely that they’ll draw the 3rd so that it’s at least a lean Dem district.
So, John, how about it? I’d love ya for governor, but if it’s looking hopeless, please think about the 3rd CD.
originally at surf putah
“Someone more progressive than Tauscher from CA-10, and a Democrat in CA-3 is win/win.”
I think CA-10 is pretty well covered.
With Durston’s back issues though…CA-3 is up in the air. I get the impression that the Dr is not going to give it another go.
Garamendi vs Lungren would be an exciting race.
Garamendi could be someone who could take the 3rd. The 10th is a no-brainer. If Mc Clintock can win a seat WAY outside of his home, then Garamendi should win against Lungren…especially when you see the Dems trending in that district.
(…albeit now that he seems to have jumped from state to federal, it seems that this is a decisive move.)
First off, the convention is next weekend. The rabid progressive base, dead set against the odious May 19 Props may just rally behind the only gubernatorial candidate to stand up against these obviously cowardly compromises.
Let Gavin, Antonio, and Jerry line up with Arnold. How well do you think that will play with the base? All of them are smooth-talkers, willing to make deals in the background.
Is that how next weekend will be run?
If he makes it through, and there’s no dead-set winner for 2010 governor, some few factors come to mind…
Relative to the last decades, labor is bound to find an uptick in membership, vis a vis the total workforce.
Best CA Gubernatorial candidate friend for labor interests?
Garamendi, no question.
Burton is of the old guard and a true progressive.
Kinda sounds like Garamendi.
Bauman is partial to Garamendi, right?
Rooker might push for the best labor candidate. (Maybe.)
All of the May 19 Props fail? Someone looks prescient.
Green economy? Environmental reform? Health insurance reform? Garamendi was there, well before Newsom was seeking the endorsement of the Republican party to first run for office…
Smart grid and renewable energy? Something called “Garamendi Principles” comes to mind…
If Garamendi combines his labor allies and his environmental acumen, and goes after green entrepreneurs, then he may build upon his progressive niche…
He would be a great Congressman for CA-3 or CA-10, but he just might be the governor we need right now. Sigh.
If Garamendi would run here. He is beloved in the foothills and the rest of the area and would further energise the activists.We could actually get rid of Lungren.