Faced with collapsing  support for the May 19 initiatives Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to try again to scare up support for the package of initiatives that, as far as I can tell, is being written off as dead by most of the state’s politicos. This time Arnold’s going to move up his May Revise to May 14, instead of after the election, ostensibly to propose insane cuts that will somehow scare voters into changing their minds and backing his slate:

“Whether they pass or fail, I think we have the responsibility to plan for either of the scenarios,” Schwarzenegger said at the Culver City Senior Center today. “That’s why we are doing now our May Revise. And when we do our May Revise this time, which we will announce on May 14, we will see two May Revises, so the people (see) what the difference is.

“If on May 19 it passes, here’s one scenario … if those initiatives don’t pass, then here’s the other scenario with the more severe cuts.”

With Proposition 1C and its $5 billion solution trailing badly in the polls, the governor is making a last-ditch effort with his May Revise to convince voters that the pain will be significant next year unless they support Propositions 1C, 1D and 1E, though he also wants voters to pass 1A and 1B.

This isn’t going to work. If anyone believes this will work, by all means speak up in the comments, I’m genuinely curious to hear how it will succeed where every other attempt to scare voters into voting Yes on May 19 has failed.

There are no groups of voters out there that will be swayed by this. Republicans will look at the proposed cuts and say “good! Now I’m definitely voting no.” Democrats and progressives who are willing to back the initiatives might be motivated to ensure they get their Yes votes in on time, but they are a smaller number than the Dems and progressives who either reject the initiatives or aren’t motivated to vote at all. And scaring people with threats is a poor way to motivate voters, as I have repeatedly argued.

Democrats now have an opening here to push an alternative set of solutions. Californians are starting to tune out their governor. They’re ready to hear a bolder and more hopeful message, one that lays out the necessary and difficult path to walk ahead as the first steps of putting things right in California.

Update: Turns out Arnold’s May Revise scare tactic is illegal as per SB X3 2, which was part of the February budget deal:

Sec. 35.10.  (a) For purposes of subdivision (d) of Section 13308 of the Government Code, the Director of Finance shall provide to the Legislature, on June 8, 2009, or six calendar days after the next statewide election, whichever is later, instead of May 14, 2009, all of the following: (a) an estimate of General Fund revenues for the 2008-09 and 2009-10 fiscal years, (b) any proposals to reduce expenditures to reflect updated revenue estimates, and (c) all proposed adjustments that are necessary to reflect updated estimates of state funding required pursuant to Section 8 of Article XVI of the California Constitution, or to reflect caseload enrollment or population changes.

Law, schmaw. Arnold Schwarzenegger sure won’t let pesky laws get in the way of his plans to scare voters into accepting his budget-busting propositions. It will be interesting if he actually does move up the June Revise even though he signed his name to a bill saying he wouldn’t.