Candidate	Support
Dem Primary
Brown	47 (26)
Newsom	27 (16)
Undecided	26 (58)
With DiFi
Feinstein	40 (38)
Brown	27 (16)
Newsom	16 (10)
Undecided	17 (36)
Republican Primary
Whitman	22 (21)
Campbell	20 (18)
Poizner	9 (7)
Undecided	49 (54)

The newest Field Poll is out and it shows one consistent thing: Jerry Brown’s quest for a third term is looking pretty good, with just over 12 months to go to the November 2010 election:

October 2009 (March 2009) —–>

And Field decided to, just for the hell of it, throw DiFi in and see how it affected the Dem primary race: —–>

Whereas Brown has significantly improved his position since March, there has been comparatively little change on the GOP side in what’s still a wide-open race:

And the November 2010 matchups:

Republican/Democrat	Whitman	Poizner	Campbell
Data Format: Rep-Dem-Undecided
Brown	29-50-21	25-50-25	27-48-25
Newsom	31-40-29	30-39-31	33-38-29

Let’s look more deeply at these numbers. There are big divides regionally, generationally, and along gender lines between support for Brown and Newsom. Southern California is breaking 50-19 for Brown, but NorCal shows a much closer race, 43-38. Newsom not only has to raise his profile in SoCal, but has to deal with a 10 point unfavorable margin (30-40).

The generational divide is also pretty stark. Those of us with no memories of Governor Brown, voters age 18-39, back Newsom 41-32. But for those age groups that do remember Governor Brown (even if they were young), Brown leads by 30 points among voters 40-64, and a massive 45 points among voters over 65.

The gender gap is also stark – men support Brown 56-22, compared to 40-31 among women.

So what all does this mean for the race? Newsom hasn’t had a good 2009. He has slipped further behind Brown, and has been unable to turn his numbers around in SoCal. He hasn’t been able to overturn his unfavorables, and as I wrote earlier his inability to offer a clear vision to Californians has meant that the older generations are sticking to their (flawed, in my view) belief that Brown is progressive enough to support for a third term.

In the general election matchups, it’s all about the decline-to-states. Newsom polls about 10 points weaker among Dems than does Brown in the head-to-head matchups, and about 5-10 points weaker among DTS voters. But, crucially, both Democrats have a lead among the DTS voters that will help decide this election.

So as we read the tea leaves on these polls, the bigger picture is starting to become clear: Californians want their next governor to be a Democrat.

As disappointed as I am in both Dem candidates, that does give me hope going into the 2010 cycle.

Notes by Brian: Californians Want A Democratic Governor

To me, what is interesting is the data for Newsom.  He is down ten points in favorability (30% favorable to 40% unfavorable) yet he is still beating all of the Republican candidates. In all likelihood, he is the Democrat with the highest unfavorables in the state, or at least amongst candidates who could seriously challenge for the Democratic nomination. In other words, put in any random Democrat, and these numbers are probably your baseline.  That is very good data for the Democratic nominee is, whether it is one of the two candidates in play now or if it is a late entrant.

Also interesting is Tom Campbell’s relative strength. He is running his campaign on a shoestring in comparison with the megalithic operations of his two opponents. I’m really not sure what to make of it. Is there really a desire for a relative “moderate” in the GOP electorate? Or is it something more about a “serious” candidate with policy and politics street cred.  I think we’ll get better data in future polls to see if Campbell can really maintain these numbers.