Field continues its data dump with the poll numbers for the Senate race (PDF). While just skating the magical “50% line” Senator Boxer is doing pretty well at this point:
When Boxer is paired against the two GOP U.S. Senate hopefuls, the incumbent holds early
double-digit leads over her two lesser-known opponents in general election match-ups. Against Fiorina, Boxer’s lead is 49% to 35%. When she is paired against DeVore her lead is 50% to 33%.
Candidate
Fav
Unfav
No Opinion
Boxer
48
39
13
Fiorina
12
16
72
DeVore
9
9
82
Senator Boxer has a huge advantage in name ID, but it is very heartening to see that despite the constant right-wing attacks against her, she is still a very solid +9 on the favorability scores. So few have heard of Fiorina and DeVore that the numbers aren’t hugely significant right now. However, I did find it interesting that more Democrats than Republicans had an opinion of Fiorina.
But in the Republican battle, these numbers must be insanely frustrating for Carly Fiorina. She was supposed to cruise to the nomination, but she is tied (21-20) with Chuck DeVore, a right-wing Assemblyman without a ton of money. You have to wonder, if she doesn’t bounce back from her bad month or so that she had, will she really want to get involved in this mess. Carlyfornia Dreamin’ was such a clear disaster, will she really want to sink much of her own money into the race, and will people really give her any money if she doesn’t sink some of her ill-gotten HP gains into it? It’s really something of a vicious feedback loop for Carly now.
Meanwhile, Senator Boxer is losing some of her base enthusiasm. A health care and/or climate change win would do worlds of good for her amongst the Democratic base. Although perhaps some better language on cap and trade wouldn’t hurt either.
Especially after the CA Republican base throws their temper tantrum and picks DeVore over Fiorina in the primary. Her favorabilities will rise as the election nears and as the base comes home once they get even a peek at how lunatic DeVore is.
Barbara has never had an easy time getting re-elected, and in this case it’s not so much that she’s doing great, it’s that her opposition (Carlyfornication, anyone) is just way more bone-headed.
However, the fact she continues to capitulate on the transit bill and on climate change to the top climate change deniers in the Senate, even with a fucking 60 vote majority, means I’ll not be donating any money anytime soon. If we can’t get shit done with Democrats in charge, what’s the fucking point?