Over the last few weeks a debate has raged online and in print about whether California is a failed state. By now you likely know my answer: it is, but we can and must revive the California Dream for the 21st century. Doing so, however, requires some rather fundamental changes to the way the state is governed and to our basic assumptions about where our prosperity comes from, especially in how we use the land.
Since those changes seem further away than ever, it ought to come as no surprise that according to a new LA Times/USC poll, Californians believe “the best years have passed”:
There was little confidence that the next governor, whoever he or she may be, would be able to successfully battle California’s problems. Voters were split over whether the winning candidate would be able to bring about “real change.” More than half of voters said that California’s problems are long-term in nature and will not ease substantially when the national economy recovers.
“I just feel like we are spinning our wheels,” said Tracey Blair, a mother of two from Mar Vista who described herself in a follow-up interview as an independent-minded Democrat. “I don’t feel like it’s going anywhere at the moment…. It’s a feeling of — like we’ve peaked.”
It’s difficult to argue with Ms. Blair. California is running on the fumes of the great engine of prosperity built by Pat Brown in the 1960s. Our politics are dominated by those who seek to protect the unequal distribution of wealth, where even widely popular efforts to address our multifaceted crisis, like high speed rail, are getting bogged down by those who adamantly refuse to accept the need to change.
California is destroying its educational system, shredding what little remains of job growth and innovation, and strangling the middle- and working classes. In a state where most voters want expanded government services and have shown a willingness to pay for them, politicians from both parties instead fall all over themselves to offer budget cuts, deathly afraid to offer genuine solutions. Our best years are indeed behind us, at least for the time being.
It doesn’t have to be that way. But nobody running for governor in 2010 is offering a positive vision of future prosperity and sustainability. Jerry Brown seems determined to stick to the status quo instead of offering Californians a vision for the next 30 years. Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner are battling each other to see who can burn down what’s left of the state the fastest, and Tom Campbell merely wants to take it apart more slowly and more methodically.
In that light, consider the other numbers from the LA Times/USC poll on the governor and US Senate races:
GOP US Senate: Fiorina 27, DeVore 27, Undecided 40
GOP CA Governor: Whitman 35, Campbell 27, Poizner 10, Undecided 23
Unfortunately they didn’t poll some of the head-to-head matchups for the general election.
was that all of the interview quotes were from white californians, and all but one were either pollsters, political consultants, or poli sci profs. kind of odd given the fact that it’s an article on what the electorate feels, an electorate that is majority-minority and growing moreso.
when you think about it, the whole “peaked” narrative assumes whiteness, really. “our” state is slipping out of “our” hands, and thus will never be as good as the good ol’ days. golden age = white electorate.
something else interesting about the poll is the crosstab breakdown:
48% of protestants were born-again
70% white
16% latino
5% black
5% asian
22% over 65.
i can’t find the current info on age or born-again, but here are the 2006 numbers for california:
43% nonwhite latino
36% latino
12% asian
6% black
it would be interesting to know whether they weighted for this in the poll.
Robert- I don’t think you should be so gloomy. California is going through a retrenching of society at the moment. We are seeing the end of the Post-War/Depression era political consensus. Any major shift in the fundamental consensus in society is always painful especially where race is a factor.
The society that Californians built in the Post-War era sparked intense competition from other states over economic resources. A continuing barrage of marketing and incentives drew away huge sectors of industry. These marketing efforts succeeded in labeling California as a high cost state in which to do business. This caused California politicians to try to reign in public spending to fight that image. In the 70’s, Prop 13 and Reaganism were aimed at the middle-class white population to play on their fears about job security and race as represented by welfare and busing. Since that time we have been on a downward spiral of budget cuts and declining public services perpetuated by ill-conceived and irresponsible tax cuts which did nothing to abate the flight of quality jobs.
All that being said, as the members of the Post-war/Depression Era pass on, I think California will begin to find its stride again. What is going to drive our growth is the emergence a new multicultural consensus that will be fueled by small business at first, then increasingly large businesses. The emerging consensus will demand a high quality educational system that is not ghettoized into white and non-white districts. The new consensus will demand that infrastructure address the needs of the population rather than cater to the wants of the wealthy.
I see this change already happening around us. Go to the older areas of cities that have become predominantly Hispanic and Asian and look at explosion of small business. Look at the proliferation of well-designed and marketed Mexican food chains. With the economic power that comes with successful enterprise, political power follows. There are many who will fail to see the wave that is coming and will be washed away by its force. Just look at the retreat of the California Republican Party as an example. For those who choose not to fear, but to ride the wave, the future will be brighter. So cheer up Robert, you are part of the change that most assuredly is coming.
Robert — where are your comments on the overwhelming opposition to the taxes you say Californians will approve, and to the 2/3 rule?
This is why I call you on the carpet sometimes — those are the right things but they have no political reality in California. And that’s why elected leaders confronted with those constraints are forced to do what they do.