What Kind of Economic Recovery?

We learned on Friday that California may be on the verge of jobs growth. 32,000 jobs were created in the state in January 2010, including in construction and manufacturing. However, the unemployment rate also went up to 12.5%, as more people sought work. It’s a sign that any economic recovery that might be under way is anemic at best, and that we still have a VERY long way to go to solve the problems of what may be persistent unemployment.

Unfortunately, this economic recovery is not only anemic, it may be transitory. And even if it were to continue to pick up steam and last for a while, it will not be a true “recovery” in the sense of creating broadly shared prosperity. Instead we appear to have experienced another dramatic ratcheting downward of economic opportunity for most Californians, while creating conditions that both ensure we will have another nasty crash and that many more people will suffer when it happens.

This phenomenon is not unfamiliar to California. Since 1980 we have experienced four recessions that have frayed the safety net, fueled anti-government sentiments, and created more inequality and economic vulnerability, all of which mean that the subsequent recession hits harder than the one that came before it. The recoveries from each recession have been largely driven by unsustainable asset bubbles that benefit the wealthy but create little if any actual wage growth for everyone else.

All indications are that we will experience the same here in 2010 – that is, if this halting recovery even lasts. Below are some thoughts on the ongoing economic problems California faces and what needs to be done to actually solve them, instead of ignore them in the face of another asset bubble.

Any current economic recovery is driven by massive federal economic stimulus, and will collapse if and when it is withdrawn. Since California has done absolutely nothing to stimulate economic recovery, any job creation currently being experienced is due solely to the Obama Administration’s 2009 stimulus plan. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely to be renewed, as both the White House and Senate Democrats are putting deficit reduction ahead of recovery. They’re afraid of teabaggers whining about deficits, so instead they’re going to repeat the error of 1937 and drive the state and nation deeper into recession by taking away government support. We need a second stimulus that is larger than the first if recovery is to happen, and it must be aimed at creating jobs, not at pointless tax cuts.

Austerity budgets and policies designed to protect creditors leave debtors less able to participate in and fuel economic growth. Last week’s student protests were very similar to recent protests in Spain and Greece in that they shared a common enemy: austerity budget cuts made in the name of appeasing creditors. Just as economic commentator Simon Johnson believes Europe risks global depression with these austerity policies, so too does California risk another downward slide with its ongoing slashing of government spending and programs. As average Californians are being told to spend more money for health care, education, and transportation so that government doesn’t have to tax the rich and the large corporations to pay those costs, that makes it more difficult for those Californians to clear away their household debts, rebuild savings, and power the recovery through sensible spending choices.

Policies that favor large corporations at the expense of small business leave the state more vulnerable to recession and fail to create good jobs. Small businesses in California need things like universal health care, affordable transportation, worker-friendly labor laws, and above all, a well-paid customer base that is able to sustain locally owned business. Instead California’s current policies all favor large businesses, who get the tax breaks and bailouts and are able to block reforms that could make it easier for people to start and maintain businesses. Small businesses drive a greater share of job creation, are far less likely to outsource or offshore work, and tend to keep profits in the community. They need to be emphasized, not screwed over by policies designed to keep costs low for the big businesses, who can then crowd out their smaller competitors.

The state budget is still in permanent, long-term deficit, and austerity appears to be the solution for years to come. Just as more government spending is needed to sustain any nascent recovery that might be under way, more spending is also needed to sustain a fairer, more prosperous economy. If people can’t afford an education, can’t afford health care, can’t afford to get around the region for work, then they will be vulnerable to the next downturn, which will come much sooner than expected. California is projected to still have budget deficits for the next 3 years, of about $20 billion per year. If we cut another $60 billion in spending, California’s economy will be left in tatters, since the programs that help keep down the cost of living for Californians will no longer be there. Now is the time to raise taxes by a large amount on the wealthy and on large corporations, to close the deficit and make it possible to restore and grow government services to strengthen and lengthen any economic recovery.

I’m sure there is more that can be examined and that must be done, but these are some general principles to keep in mind. If there is any economic recovery over the next 12-18 months, however weak and uneven it is, Sacramento will be tempted to avoid tackling the deep problems and implementing the solutions we need to a 30-year long downward spiral.

That wouldn’t be good. Because if the status quo remains in place, most Californians will not see lasting benefits from this recovery. Sure, they might be able to find a job, but it won’t be enough to pay the bills, eliminate the debt, build up savings, and help build a more sustainable economy for the future.

5 thoughts on “What Kind of Economic Recovery?”

  1. This is exactly the middle-class populist message that every Democrat should be using all the time.

    • Policies that favor large corporations at the expense of small business leave the state more vulnerable to recession and fail to create good jobs. Small businesses in California need things like universal health care, affordable transportation, worker-friendly labor laws, and above all, a well-paid customer base that is able to sustain locally owned business. Instead California’s current policies all favor large businesses, who get the tax breaks and bailouts and are able to block reforms that could make it easier for people to start and maintain businesses. Small businesses drive a greater share of job creation, are far less likely to outsource or offshore work, and tend to keep profits in the community. They need to be emphasized, not screwed over by policies designed to keep costs low for the big businesses, who can then crowd out their smaller competitors.

  2. and it was very long.  However, I did thrash my way through the rhetorical thickets to question whether the left or the right is responsible for the oppressive and Byzantine regulatory schemes that crush California’s small business and hands a tremendous competitive advantage to the large business entities.

    full disclosure: I make a modest living litigating issues that arise due to my clients’ alleged failure to adhere to said schemes

  3.  Actually its really easy to explain, 70% of the country works in the Services sector, when your in Target, Wal-Mart Pep Boys, Auto Zone or Best Buy ask any employee nicely how much they are getting paid.

    That’s all you need to know….

    These are people that largely can’t afford health care and umm Wal-Mart’s tactics on providing Health Care to its employees is well known, if not do a Google search.

    This is what happens when you don’t support The Employee Free Choice act. This is solely to prevent large companies from being Unionized and raising the standard of living for workers.

    But I’ve said all along that if you really want change you’ll need to use the biggest tool in your box and that’s your wallet.

    Don’t buy anything, no go to work, don’t go anywhere for 2-3 days that’s all you need to do in order for this country to come to a grinding halt.

    Then they’ll listen.

     

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