First, let me say this: I am a big fan of primary challenges. But to make it really get past the statement phase, you really have to catch lightning in a bottle. Of course, Republicans are doing it all over the place these days, but that’s not the case for Democrats.
So, with that I give you news from the Harman – Winograd primary challenge. According to a new poll for the Harman campaign, she is up by 41 points, 58-17. Now, much of this is about name ID, where Harman is known by the community, and Winograd basically isn’t. Harman’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is at 64/18, while Winograd’s is at 20/6.
Now, the caveats: this poll is a fairly small sample, so the margin of error is almost +/- 5%. But with the lead being so large, that shouldn’t matter all that much. What these numbers are telling me is that Harman is going to win the primary on the strength of her name ID. With only a few weeks to go before the election, Winograd is left playing the statement role.
Back in 2006, she garnered about 38%, and she might just reach that number. But, for now, it looks like Harman has herself in a position for a comfortable win come June 8.
I’d be real curious to know what their likely voter screen is.
maybe if Winograd used her time more wisely than interviewing with the Tehran Times she’d have a better shot
I seem to remember Republican Dan Lungren releasing a poll one month out from the 2008 election saying he was up 20 points over progressive Bill Durston (CA03). Durston claimed the race was much closer (3 points down, +-3), but most of the establishment Dems apparently trusted Lungren’s numbers and wrote Durston off. The Republican false poll proved very effective as Durston received almost no institutional support the last 4 weeks which let Lungren totally outspend Durston. End result, Durston lost by 5.5 points, well below the “official” poll.
Readers should know that the Winograd campaign has conducted a far larger poll, and its results are startlingly different from Harman’s claims. In a random sample of nearly 1,000 likely primary voters conducted by Merriman River Group, congressional candidate Marcy Winograd (CA-36) was within striking distance of Harman, when factoring in the large number, (27%) of undecideds, who typically vote 2-1 for the challenger. In that scenario, Harman led by just 4 points, certainly a small enough percentage that Winograd can beat Harman on June 8th.
Given Marcy’s previous showing of 37.5% after just 3 months of campaigning in 2006, Harman’s poll strains credulity, and suggests a push poll. By contrast, the Merriman poll concludes, “…approximately 70% of all voters who have formed an opinion of Winograd are likely to vote for her.”
Michael Jay
Campaign Manager
Winograd For Congress
It’s fairly clear, given the outcome of the contest, that Harman’s poll either didn’t exist or was grossly distorted for campaign purposes, to discourage turnout and Winograd support. No way did Winograd more than double her percentage since the release of the poll. Having read some of the Englander negative bogus mailers spewing from the Harman camp, it is not a surprise. They ran an amazingly dishonest and dirty campaign, especially in light of her haughty entitled incumbent status. It’s a disgrace that this woman will now represent the district for another term, and her sleazoid campaignmeisters will have their misconduct reinforced.