A new analysis from Orange County Register political columnist Martin Wisckol and California political observer Allan Hoffenblum showing how Democrat Phu Nguyen can win AD-68 has been making the rounds among the state’s political media today, and it’s about time.

We’ve been writing about Phu Nguyen for some time now here at Calitics, and more broadly have talked about how Democrats have lots of pickup opportunities in Orange County. But it is good that the rest of California is learning this as well.

Wisckol’s and Hoffenblum’s assessment is a pretty good one:

The first place to look for possible November surprises in Orange County is the Assembly seat being vacated by Van Tran, R-Westminster, according to veteran elections handicapper Allan Hoffenblum.

Costa Mesa Mayor Allan Mansoor, a Republican, is the favorite given the GOP’s 7.5 percentage point advantage in voter registration and his superior name recognition. But it is also the most heavily Vietnamese-American district in the county, which helps well-funded Democrat Phu Nguyen.

“That’s always been a Republican seat because the Vietnamese have voted Republican,” Hoffenblum said. “But sometimes race trumps all.”

Additionally, Mansoor’s hardline anti-illegal immigration position could turn off some Little Saigon voters, Hoffenblum said. He points to the primary, where the much lesser known Republican Long Pham barely campaigned and still received 31 percent of the GOP vote.

“If those people vote for the Vietnamese candidate in the general election, the Democrat will win,” said Hoffenblum, whose Target Book analyzes contests.

This makes sense, and yet it undersells Nguyen’s appeal to the voters of the 68th district. Nguyen understands the needs of his district – job creation, protecting public schools, providing health care, and helping produce a balanced state budget.

This is stark contrast to Mansoor, who apparently believed the mayor of Costa Mesa’s primary role was to bash immigrants, instead of attending to the city’s economic and fiscal concerns. Mansoor has nothing to offer voters of the 68th District, and it’s a shortcoming Nguyen is poised to exploit.

One question Hoffenblum asks is whether Orange County’s large Vietnamese community will vote en masse for Republicans, or en masse for the Vietnamese candidate. Here again, I think he’s painting with too broad a brush. Many Vietnamese voters will indeed vote for Nguyen, but not merely because he shares their heritage.

Young Vietnamese in Orange County share many things in common with other young people in the OC, and one of them is that they’re more favorable to Democrats than older generations. This is obviously more pronounced in the Vietnamese community, where many first-generation immigrants were strongly Republican owing to 1970s-era politics, where the GOP was seen as the anti-Communist, anti-Hanoi bulwark.

Older Vietnamese may be torn, but here again Nguyen offers more than just a Vietnamese name – he is well-known in the community and speaks to their issues as well.

Combine that with Nguyen’s appeal to other voters and communities in the district, and Mansoor’s one-note campaign, and it seems that Phu Nguyen can definitely win AD-68. Along with Melissa Fox in AD-70, and Congressional candidates Bill Hedrick in CA-44 and Beth Krom in CA-48, some of the best pickup opportunities for California Democrats are back home in Orange County. Let’s hope Dems are ready, willing, and able to win those fights this fall.