With the California Republican Party now unelectable on a statewide basis, California politics will steadily come to resemble that of San Francisco, Los Angeles, or other Democratic localities – marked by a contest between left and center-left, with progressives on one side and corporate-friendly politicians on the other. Yesterday we examined how corporations will likely respond – by funding “independent” candidates that will attempt to run Arnold Schwarzenegger-style campaigns.
But what of Democrats? And what of the progressive movement that has spent the last 10 years organizing under the Democratic banner?
The collapse of the California Republican Party and the Democratic sweep of 2010, along with the underlying trends that produced those outcomes, give progressives a golden opportunity to finally fix our broken government and implement our vision for a renewed California Dream. But we have a ways to go before we can accomplish it.
The 2010 election was not a triumph of progressive ideology. The Democratic candidates did not run on a very clearly defined progressive agenda – but they didn’t run from it either. Jerry Brown may not have made a call for new revenues, but he defended public services, denounced corporate greed, and made one of the best statements on immigrant rights I’ve ever heard. Kamala Harris and Dave Jones stood up for other progressive values, in law enforcement and health care, on the trail as well.
Still, the 2010 victory owed more to the mobilization of a progressive movement and its organizational leaders to block the right-wing than to the triumph of a clearly articulated vision. The California Labor Federation, the California Nurses Association, SEIU, and others did heroic work to mobilize and turn out voters. Grassroots groups like Courage Campaign, CREDO, CALPIRG, CLCV, and others joined in and mobilized progressives to show up to defeat ballot initiatives, contributing to the overall progressive mobilization.
That’s not to say progressive values can’t win statewide. We just haven’t fought an election solely on that basis. Progressive Californians need to spend the next few months and years laying out our vision for this state and organizing to support candidates in a top-two primary who will help us implement it.
We also need to ensure that our Democratic statewide electeds do not throw away the opportunity they’ve been given. President Obama provides the example of what not to do with a big victory. He failed to deliver for the base that elected him, and therefore enabled a revival of the right. That won’t happen in California – it’s not the right we have to worry about, but corporate elites running a Schwarzenegger-style candidate for governor in 2014.
Realizing that California’s government is still broken, the progressive coalition that came together to elect the Democratic ticket – Latinos, Asians, young people, progressives, coastal voters – expects that ticket to be attentive to, and fight for, their needs and dreams. If Governor Brown starts to embrace center-right policies, then this moment will be lost.
The best way to stop that from happening is to continue organizing to promote a progressive agenda – in governance, in local elections, and in our messaging. Progressives will need to prepare for corporations to start trying to use the top-two primary to push their own agenda via selected candidates. Those candidates may be Democrats, Republicans, or independents depending on the district – but if they can capitalize on discontent with Democrats, they can roll back Democratic accomplishments.
It won’t be a right-wing victory; they are unelectable statewide. But it could be a corporate victory, and that would be just as devastating for our future.
Tomorrow will come the last in this series: how the right-wing is going to turn to legalized white supremacy to try and avoid their inevitable demise in California.
I suspect that if I were to go back to December 2008 and scroll through DailyKos or Firedoglake or HuffPo, I would see similar posts proclaiming the imminent demise of the GOP on a national level. After all, we had carried not just Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, but Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. We had extended our majorities in both House and Senate, and the Democrats were an unstoppbable force. That was then, and now we have Speaker Boehner and Senators Paul, Rubio, and Toomey, to name a few.
It won’t be necessary for the electorate to embrace Republican values, simply for them to reject Democratic incompetence. That’s what happened this year nationally, and there’s a strong possibility that we could face the same in California. Prop 25 means we’re responsible for passing the budget, while Props 22 & 26 reduce our options for paying for services. Add the effects of the redistricting commission and the top-two primary, and we can easily end up with a bloc of “centrist” legislators embracing the “cuts-only” Chamber of Commerce model of governance. That will drive the state, and the party, over the cliff.