But where each runs is still in question
by Brian Leubitz
It isn’t clear where Brad Sherman and Howard Berman will run for re-election. However, as it stands right now, there are pretty good odds that they are destined for a Dem-on-Dem bloodbath. Sherman, who is sitting on $4 million in his campaign account, put out the first volley in the form of a poll showing a nice lead:
Congressman Brad Sherman is the likely winner of the election in the new 30th congressional district. These are the results of a just completed survey in the new congressional district from initial match-ups with no information given about either candidate:
Three-way race:
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat: 42%
Businessman Mark Reed, Republican: 26%
Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat: 17%Two-way race:
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat: 51%
Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat: 24%Sherman currently represents just over half the voters in the new 30th CD. Sherman is strong in his current district (CD27), winning 52 percent support there in the three way match-up with only 9 percent for Berman and 24 percent for Reed. In contrast, Berman barely ekes out a plurality in the less than a quarter of the district that he currently represents (CD28), leading Sherman by only 32 percent to 30 percent, while Reed draws 21 percent support.
Whether this election comes to pass is still up in doubt, but there is no question that Sherman is preparing for it.
Move to Newport Beach. He could beat Dana Rohrabacher. He’d have a better chance there than against Sherman. And his coming in to stomp the mercurial Talibsn Admirer would immediately put the race in Klieg lights.
The district is centered in Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and Laguna Beach — the latter two of which haven’t been part of Rohrabacher’s district. The area has a strong, high-donor, tuned-in Jewish community there, large swaths of which in both parties would be dancing around and saying the Shehekhianu prayer — thanks, Lord, for keeping me alive long enough to see this — at the thought of being represented in Congress by a mensch like Howard Berman rather than by Crazy Dana. From their perspective, Berman’s position on the Middle East is impeccable — and Rohrabacher’s is peccable.
Having a star like Berman come down, someone who could deliver the goods for the district — something that John Campbell took pains not to even try to do! — would be a wonder. Why should Newport Beach waste time on draft picks when it can bring in a Hall-of-Fame-bound free agent?
So come on down the Coast, Howard. You’ll love it there! It’s like they moved Beverly Hills to Santa Monica — you’ll feel more at home than in Sherman’s home base, and you’ll definitely make it to November.
My forefathers moved long ago from the West Side to Huntington Beach and Newport Beach — OK, it was my father father, and it was 1970, but still — and it’s a well-worn path. This looks like a Republican district, but it’s the area where McCain tanked after picking Palin (and was also surprisingly good, for the region, on Prop 8. You can win this! And, if you do go down, wouldn’t you rather it be in valiant battle against the likes of Dana Rohrabacher than trying to keep up with your virtual clone, Brad Sherman?
Your party need you, Howard. Come down here and test the waters. They’re surprisingly warm, although you may see someone there shivering: Rep. Rohrabacher, after someone tells him why you’re visiting town.
and better than ending up with a possible Dem-on-Dem general election in the SFV. Somehow I can’t see Howard going for it, though.