Two hottest California GOP seats in 2014

by Brian Leubitz

I’ve been away from blogging for a while, in case you missed the radio silence. While I can’t make any firm commitments, I’m going to try to be a bit more active here, so make sure you stay tuned and keep watching your RSS feeds, facebook feed, etc.  As a kickoff to the year, let’s take a look at two of the GOP House seats in play this year.

1) CA-21, where freshman David Valadao is in a Cook lean Republican seat after defeating John Hernandez 58-42 in 2012. 2014 isn’t likely to be a stronger Democratic year, but Valadao could be looking at a very strong challenger in one of Cosmopolitan Magazine’s 20 Women to Watch in 2014, Amanda Renteria.

The former teacher is running to represent California’s Central Valley in the House, a Democrat challenging the Republican incumbent. She was a staffer first for Senator Dianne Feinstein, and then, under Senator Debbie Stabenow, the first Latina chief of staff in Senate history. She turned down a position as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to focus on her campaign. (Cosmopolitan)

Yes, that is that Cosmo, but the full article of women to watch in 2014 is a good read. (There is one other Californian, Kamala Harris, for whom I have done some work.) She has a wealth of experience in public service and is clearly qualified for the job, the question is whether she can make the transition to political work. If she can raise the money needed for a robust campaign, this could be a very interesting race.

2) Down in San Bernardino (mostly), Gary Miller has his hands full in a lean Democratic seat. As David Atkins pointed out yesterday, Top-2 foiled the Democrats as the votes were split between a number of candidates, leaving two Republicans in the general election. While the candidate field is still flexible, that seems unlikely to happen again. At least unlikely if there is a bit more cooperation all around, but there is still a big field gearing up for a general election.

The full list on Around the Capitol is a little disheartening on the top-2 front:

Pete Aguilar (Democrat) – Mayor, Redlands

Danny Tillman (Democrat) – Trustee, San Bernardino Unified

Eloise Gomez Reyes (Democrat) – Attorney

Joe Baca (Democrat) – Former Member of Congress

However, as of now, there isn’t a second Republican in sight. If one does file before the deadline, this four way matchup could be a slow motion repeat of 2012. If a Democrat is able to get into the general election, Miller will be a top nationwide target. He has a somewhat tricky relationship with ethics and isn’t really all that popular.