Republicans beginning to fear a nativist on a large stage

by Brian Leubitz

Gov. Brown is looking good in all the polling. He’s well over 50% against all the challengers, and the leading Republican is nativist Tim Donnelly. That raises something of an existential question for the future of the California Republican party: are they a niche right-wing party or can they compete for statewide races?

So, with that in mind, much of the establishment of the national GOP is looking to push Wall Street’s candidate, Neel Kashkari. The endorsements are flooding in:

Bush, who’s considering a 2016 run for president, joins 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, former California Gov. Pete Wilson and San Diego-area GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, who signed on with Kashkari on Monday.

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Kashkari’s endorsers make all the right noises about how “it’s clearly time for new leadership” (Issa) and how the former investment banker’s skills are “exactly what we need in leading California today” (Romney). But it’s probably not Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown’s 57 percent support in that poll that worries Republicans both inside and outside the state – it’s the 17 percent backing that San Bernardino County GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly has picked up.(SF Chronicle / John Wildermuth

That 17 percent is pretty close to Donnelly’s ceiling. He won’t get much in the way of minority votes, and he’s certainly not going to do well with independents. Brown could rack up vote totals that are rarely seen in politics. The Republicans know they aren’t going to beat Brown, but they don’t want to go down in flames. That kind of losing leaves a mark that you can’t wipe away the next day, or the next cycle.

And so you have Republicans from seemingly everywhere pouring in to endorse Kashkari. Given that he was at 2% a few days ago, and has only five weeks, it’s a big hill to climb. But, it’s a hill that establishment Republicans are desperate to conquer.