An Ipsos/Reuters poll out this morning shows Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman 45-39 in the Governor’s race and Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina 45-41. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-p…

Obviously, these races are going to be hard fought and there is a lot of work to do. Brown’s lead is very good news, seeing as Whitman has saturated the airwaves for months and Brown hasn’t had a presence at all. Boxer’s lead is narrower, but as the campaign goes on, Fiorina’s tenure at HP will be one of the main focuses and that will give Boxer more of an edge. Brown and Boxer haven’t hit the airwaves (at least I haven’t seen any ads), so they still have a lot of room to get their numbers up.

Last night, the House of Representatives voted to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Five Republicans voted yes on the measure, but Mary Bono Mack wasn’t one of them. Her vote is very relevant because she is the only Republican to represent a district with more 10% LGBT population. CA-45 voted 51-46 for Obama in 2008 and is on the DCCC target list. Bono Mack has not faced a formidable challenge in past election cycles, her lowest total victory was 58% in 2008 against former Assemblywoman Julie Bornstein.

One could attribute her vote against the repeal to the fact that she received a Tea Party, Palin backed primary challenge. The Democrats fielded a good candidate in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who is making serious challenge for this seat. Now is the time to start paying attention to this race, as Bono Mack’s vote will be an issue with many of her constituents. CQ Politics rates the race as Likely Republican, which means there was a good chance of a pickup even before the vote.  

In what is some rather encouraging news, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll has Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman by six points. Brown leads Steve Poizner by an even larger margin of 50% to 32%. The poll also revealed that most surveyed also like the idea of a debate between Brown, Whitman and Poizner.

At last weekend’s convention, Brown challenged his Republican opponents to a three-way debate prior to the state GOP’s June 8 primary when one of those candidates will be knocked out of the race. Seventy-one percent (71%) of California voters think a three-way debate is a good idea. Fifteen percent (15%) oppose it.

While there is still much work for Brown to do, I think he is in a very good starting position. Whitman has spent millions, yet she dropped two points from the last poll, which had them tied at 40%-40%. This is only my speculation, but I think more people are aware of the fact that Whitman is a Republican and that the “who’s more Conservative” game between Whitman and Poizner is turning some people off. And with both GOP candidates having supported Democrats in the past, it might make them appear to be somewhat opportunistic to hard-right conservatives who more often than not decide California GOP primaries.

I don’t know what Jerry Brown’s next moves are, but I do know that he need to strike while the iron is hot. Now is the time for him to get out there and start getting the base fired up, because as it stands now, the base isn’t showing much enthusiasm. Brown has the edge with independents, so he’s also got to focus on that group too. While it’s true that a good portion of independents in California lean toward Democratic candidates, it’s also true that many of them are not enthusiastic either and could sit the election out or vote third party.

P.S. This is my first diary entry, I hope I did it right.