All posts by Brian Leubitz

Polls are open, Field Poll predicts low turnout

The Field Poll folks think it’s going to be even lower than McPherson thought (38%).  They are calling for a turnout of just 34%:

As the Democratic gubernatorial candidates took to the streets in search of votes Monday, the Field Poll predicted today’s balloting will produce the lowest voter turnout of any statewide election in California history.

The survey estimated 5.3 million Californians will cast ballots in today’s primary election, or just 34 percent of those registered. That would be fewer than one in four of those who are adult citizens and eligible to vote.

“It’s a continuation of the really low turnout for gubernatorial primaries that you have seen over the last 20 years,” said Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director. “But this would be an all-time low.”

Up to now, the previous low came in 2002, when 34.6 percent of registered voters cast ballots. That year, 24.6 percent of those eligible voted.(SacBee 6/6/06)

So, I guess don’t expect long lines at polling places.  I suppose that the low turnout has something to do with the fact that a) there’s not GOP gubenatorial (or many other offices) primary and b) people were turned off by all those negative ads.  I originally thought low turnout would give an advantage to Westly, but now I’m thinking that because Angelides’ support is skewed towards the older, more reliable voters that it would probably benefit him.  Also, Angelides will likely have an advantage in the GOTV efforts that will become even more important in the race. 

Another side note, the number of absentee voters voters continues to rise, up to 38% percent of those voting this year.

CA-Gov: When will we have the results?

With an extremely close election predicted, it’s worth considering when we will get the results.

Alameda County’s return to low-tech voting Tuesday could make for a long evening for poll workers and leave the state’s neck-and-neck Democratic gubernatorial primary undecided overnight.

The county’s inability to quickly process paper ballots after shelving its electronic voting machines may make Alameda the determining factor because 5.7 percent of the state’s registered Democrats live there.(AP (SJ M-N) 6/3/06)

Alameda County will likely break towards Angelides.  It will be interesting to see if the early vote favors Westly and if it shifts later towards Angelides.

Of course, a disastrous result, as Dan Weitraub pointed out,  a protracted ballot counting process combined with any legal fights afterward would dig the ultimate Dem nominee a hole that may be too deep to dig out of.  The nasty primary battle will already give us a weakened candidate.  We certainly don’t need any more complications.

Calitics Poll HQ Updates

Just wanted to let everybody know that I updated the Poll HQ.  I left out a couple of S-USA polls, one for CA-50, and another on the primary.  They are now included.  Also, I’ve included a Datamar poll that came out today.

The Datamar poll is well, kinda wild.  It has the typical narrow Angelides lead (42.9-41.7), but what shocked me were the numbers for 81 and 82.  It had them both losing.  By A LOT. It had 81 losing 57-36.5 and 82 losing 63.1-32.9. 82 fell below the proverbial Mendoza line.  But 63.1% No seems awfully, awfully high to me.  In the Field Poll, the No’s are leading 46-41.  63.1 seems way out of whack.  And given the Field Poll’s long and distinguished history, I’d lean towards their numbers.  Also, their numbers for the hypothetical matchups seem a bit out of line with other recent numbers.  (Schwarzenegger 53.5 – 34.3 Angelides) and (Schwarzenegger 50.7 – 38.0 Westly).  I’m made even more suspicous by the answer to question 18, most trustworthy party.  By a margin of 44.9 to 41.5, the California electorate thinks the GOP is more trustworthy than the Dems?  Really?  Something doesn’t smell right to me.  So, take it how you will.

Enjoy!

Profiles in Corruption: Duncan Hunter (CA-52) and Van D. Hipp, Jr.

CA-52 MapCA-52 MapDuncan Hunter hails from inland San Diego County, somewhere abouts Alpine.  Pretty desert-type area.  It’s a fairly conservative place, but you can’t hold that against him.  You can hold his terrible website against him.  It’s got to be one of the worst in all of the Congress.  Something else you can hold against him: he’s one of the top recipients of lobbying dollars.  In fact he’s take more money than all but 65 Congressmen in the last year.  That puts him at about top 15%.  Good Work Duncan ol’boy!

But more specifically, he’s #2 on Van D. Hipp Jr.’s list.  Now, who is Van D. Hipp, Jr you might ask?  Well good question!

The report from Public Citizen indicates the Alpine Republican is Congress’ No. 2 recipient of contributions from Van D. Hipp Jr., chairman of American Defense International, a lobbying group whose clients have included Raytheon Missile Systems, Ruag Munition, Sarnoff Corp. and other defense-related companies. Hipp is profiled in the Public Citizen report because he is among the Hill’s top donors to lawmakers.

Hunter is chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, which has jurisdiction over the nation’s vast and expensive defense programs.

Hipp has been with American Defense International since 1998. The company’s Web site indicates that the company represents more than 100 organizations in 11 countries on “government affairs” strategies, crafting messages to “decision makers” and “marketing a product or service to the federal government” – in other words, your standard lobbying activities.

In the scheme of things, that’s not a big chunk of change, but in the current lobby-reform climate, a Hunter-Hipp association is something watchdog groups are bound to pounce on.  … That is especially true since Hipp does not have a clean record. … About a decade ago, this former deputy assistant secretary of the Army was sentenced to five years’ probation and three months’ house arrest for taking illegal campaign gifts during a failed 1994 congressional campaign. He also was fined $5,000 and ordered to perform 200 hours of community service.
That’s a bit more serious than your average Federal Election Commission slap on the wrist. No doubt those critical of Hunter’s close ties to imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham would be happy to point out that Hunter has ties to others who have run afoul of the law. (SD U-T 6/5/06)

Now, the article also goes on to say that all this money is no cause for concern.  Everybody does it and “‘lobbyist’ is not – last we checked – an inherently dirty word.”  Well, tell that to the people of the 50th who suffered the indignation and violation of trust of their former representative.  Lobbyist isn’t necessarily a bad word, sure…as long as there isn’t any money involved.  Until we have a process of clean elections, I’ll be sure to watch the lobbyists and where they are spreading all that cash.  We’d be naïve if we didn’t.  I’m sure a part of the reason why the focus is narrowing on the GOP is that thay control power.  I’m certainly not saying that Dems are immune to corruption.  That’s certainly not true (Exhibit A: Rostenkowski), but it is true that the GOP has not been hiding from all that loose money.  Congressmen need to know that there are consequences of every action.  Make sure you know who your john is before you whore our nation out.

Server Down Temporarily, Back up.

I apologize for the problems with the server.  It looks to be back in action now.  Hopefully all of our problems will be in the past.  I guess it’s just Murphy’s Law that it went down the day before the primary.  Again, thanks for your understanding.

CA-50: One voter at a time

Both candidates are busy fighting for every last possible vote.

At a heavily traveled Encinitas intersection Friday, Bilbray and sign-toting supporters waved at passing cars. Trucks honked. One man pulled up and said jovially: “Hey, I recognize you. You’re the carpetbagger, right?” – a reference to the fact that he moved to his mother’s house in the district last year.
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Busby focused this week on meeting commuters as they lined up for the Coaster train. When she approached people Thursday at a Carlsbad Village station, about two-thirds, including Republicans, vowed to vote for her.

“I’m on the right, but I’m going to vote for you anyway,” Art Jensen, a fan of conservative talk radio, told her. “At this point, it’s character that counts.”

Some of the old-guard Republicans – the conservatives who had long defined the 50th District – also were waiting to board the train.  “I’m a Republican and you won’t live long enough to see me vote for you,” one man said with a steely stare. (SD U-T 6/4/06)

Why does the old-guard GOP always gotta have a steely stare? We don’t want voters who gotta use the steely stare anyway.  And hey, if Francine can pick up 1 out of 2 GOP voters, she’ll do well.  There’s going to be more than a smidgeon of voter fatigue in the 50th, so let’s make sure that our voters get out and vote tomorrow.  Please do as much as you can to get out the vote.

Field Poll: Schwarzenegger inches up

While Schwarzenegger is inching up, it’s not great news for the Governator…or the Legislature:

The survey finds that there has been little change in overall voter evaluations of the job the governor and state legislature is doing. Currently, 46% disapprove of Schwarzenegger’s performance, while 41% approve, not much different from a 47% – 39% negative rating in April.

Voters remain even more critical of the legislature’s performance, with 51% disapproving and 26% approving. That’s not much different than the two to one negative to positive assessment it received in April.

Contributing to these poor evaluations is the fact that a majority of voters (57%) believes the state is seriously off on the wrong track, while just 32% feel it is moving in the right direction. This is a slightly more optimistic assessment than what was observed in April.(FieldPoll 6/5/06) 

Typically a number under 50% approval is a cause for serious concern for the incumbent.  Schwarzenegger has been languishing under 50% since June of last year.  While it will take a lot of work on the part of the Dem nominee, Angelides or Westly, it is certainly a reasonable outcome.  The matchups at this point still have a big name recognition factor in favor of the Governator.  We’ll see how that shifts after the campaign is in full swing.

As for the legislature, I think it’s one of the “hate the legislature, love your legislator” things.  There are few competitive races in either the Assembly or Senate. For info on interesting races, see Nathaniel, Burbank native’s review of the Assembly Races and the Senate Races.  Not a whole lot will change in the next session.  Term limits will mean faces will change, but votes likely won’t.  There are one or two pickup opportunities for the Republicans, mainly in SoCal, but don’t expect a lot of change.

But, the infrastructure bonds are fairing well…for now. 

The results indicate that there is currently greater than two to one support (58% to 25%) for Proposition 1e, the $4.1 billion bond for disaster preparedness and flood protection.

By a similar margin (57% to 24%) voters also support a $19.9 billion proposal, Prop. 1b, called the “Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality and Port Security Bond Act.”

A smaller, but still substantial, plurality of voters (48% to 34%) are also inclined to support Prop. 1d, a $10.4 billion bond for “Kindergarten through University Public Education Facilities.”

However, there is less support for Prop. 1c, a $2.8 billion proposal for “Housing and Emergency Shelter,” with voters dividing 39% in favor and 38% opposed.

Boy, would it be the GOP’s dream to get 1e and 1b passed without 1c and 1d, the school and housing related bonds.  It’s really what they wanted all along.  The Housing bonds were a real sticking point in the negotiations all throughout.  Many GOP arms had to be twisted to get that through the Assembly.

The interesting thing is that the California electorate tends to drift towards no as the elections get closer.  I’m curious if that will happen here as well.

CA-50: Never too many volunteers! Get out and help Francine!

From the DCCC Stakeholder:

Dear Friends and Bloggers,

I wanted to write a quick note of thanks for your engagement in my race — I’ve seen great posts sorting out fact from fiction on all the desperate Republican attacks, and just as importantly we’ve seen a huge surge in volunteers over the past few days thanks to all of you as well as the DCCC, DNC, Louise Slaughter and Jane Harman. Thanks from the bottom of my heart.

However! We’ve got 300 volunteers lined up right now, and to give it everything we’ve got on Monday and Tuesday we need 400. I hate to ask, but if any of you can help us get there, we’ll all be eternally grateful out here.

Anybody in the San Diego area who wants to help can let us know by emailing us at volunteer-at-busbyforcongress.org or calling us at (760) 479-0114.

Thanks either way, and onward!


Francine Busby

Let’s make sure that we put everything into this one.  We certainly don’t want to be left next Wednesday wondering what could have been.  If you can help her send her an email at volunteer-at-busbyforcongress.org or talk to somebody you know that’s already volunteering.  Also, Moveon.org is having a virtual phonebank if you are outside of SoCal.

CA-50: Busby’s So-Called Voter Fraud: One more example of GOP Smears

There has been this almost slanderous rumor going around saying that Francine Busby was encouraging voter fraud.

If an election can turn on a sentence, this could be the one: “You don’t need papers for voting.”

On Thursday night, Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate for the 50th Congressional District, was speaking before a largely Latino crowd in Escondido when she uttered those words. She said yesterday she simply misspoke.

But someone taped it and a recording began circulating yesterday. After she made that statement at the meeting, Busby immediately said: “You don’t need to be a registered voter to help (the campaign).”

She said that subsequent statement was to clarify what she meant.(SanDiego U-T)

Bilbray remarked that he doesn’t know how “she can show her face.”  But, the real question is will we ever see the real face of Brian Bilbray.  He lies, obfuscates, misleads, and takes statements out of context.  It’s just the game he and the NRCC are running the 50th.  However, this time it isn’t even working for the conservatives.  This is from Wizbang, a conservative, sometimes shrill, blog:

Quite a few people are in high dudgeon over California Democratic congressional candidate Francine Busby and her apparent solicitation of votes from illegal aliens, including my own colleague Kim Priestap. As a hard-nose on the illegal alien issue, the thought of this happening infuriated me, so I started looking into it myself. And my conclusion? As Dorothy Parker said, “there’s no ‘there’ there.”
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I hope she is defeated in Congress, as it is attitudes like hers that have put us in such a bind regarding illegal aliens. But I’m afraid this is hardly a smoking gun. (WizBang 6/4/06)

Read the full post for his more in-depth analysis of the quote.  But, suffice it to say that Busby has no reason to hang her head in shame.  Bilbray, the anti-immigration lobbyist, is hardly in any reason to chastise others, especially for non-existent ethical shortcomings.

And please, please, if you can get down to the 50th today, tomorrow, or Tuesday, please do.  The value of a win in the 50th cannot be underestimated.

The SacBee’s endorsement list

The SacBee published its full endorsement list today.  No surprise at the top as they endorse Angelides, the hometown boy for the Dem nomination.  Looking back at these now, a few things strike me as interesting.  They endorse Debra Bowen, from SoCal, over Deborah Ortiz, the Sacramento legislator.  Also, they endorse Pete McCloskey over Paid-for Pombo in CA-11.  Click here for the full list