The Field Poll folks think it’s going to be even lower than McPherson thought (38%). They are calling for a turnout of just 34%:
As the Democratic gubernatorial candidates took to the streets in search of votes Monday, the Field Poll predicted today’s balloting will produce the lowest voter turnout of any statewide election in California history.
The survey estimated 5.3 million Californians will cast ballots in today’s primary election, or just 34 percent of those registered. That would be fewer than one in four of those who are adult citizens and eligible to vote.
“It’s a continuation of the really low turnout for gubernatorial primaries that you have seen over the last 20 years,” said Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director. “But this would be an all-time low.”
Up to now, the previous low came in 2002, when 34.6 percent of registered voters cast ballots. That year, 24.6 percent of those eligible voted.(SacBee 6/6/06)
So, I guess don’t expect long lines at polling places. I suppose that the low turnout has something to do with the fact that a) there’s not GOP gubenatorial (or many other offices) primary and b) people were turned off by all those negative ads. I originally thought low turnout would give an advantage to Westly, but now I’m thinking that because Angelides’ support is skewed towards the older, more reliable voters that it would probably benefit him. Also, Angelides will likely have an advantage in the GOTV efforts that will become even more important in the race.
Another side note, the number of absentee voters voters continues to rise, up to 38% percent of those voting this year.