All posts by Brian Leubitz

Flooding Imminent?

The SacBee just released a story saying that the governor has been put on notice about pending flooding in Northern California:

A state water official told Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday that “one of the top-five weather seasons on record” has put California on the precipice of a flood disaster.

“All of our reservoirs are full, and we are not able to contain all the water,” Les Harder, deputy director of the state Department of Water Resources, told the governor during a briefing at the department’s Flood Operations Center. “So the river system, and the levee system, is being taxed beyond its designed capacity.” (Sac Bee 4/10/06)

The Governor also put seven counties on a state of emergency.  I think now is a time to push both federal funding and state funding for levee repairs.  Look, we couldn’t pass an infrastructre bond package because the parties can’t work together.  Fine.  But the least we should be able to do is agree on the fact that the state of the levees is untenable.  At this point, it is only a matter of time until we have a major disaster.

Of course, even additional funding for the levees doesn’t answer the long-term problem.  We need to reconsider how we build in flood-prone areas.  The Delta region may just not be able to support a massive spread-out population.  Developers keep pushing growth on vulnerable areas and the state never stops to consider where we are going to divert all the water in case of a major flood.  So, where does all that water go now that the reservoirs are full?  Beats the hell out of me.

The time to answer these questions is now.

The Chronicle lurches forward

It looks like we have an answer to this ages-old question: when the Chronicle is smacked in the face with a story, how long does it take to figure it out?  The answer: several weeks.

I (and several other CA bloggers) have been calling for the end to the sniping between the two candidates for governor.  But the Chronicle just now noticed:

What had been a sportsmanlike arm-wrestling match between two ambitious Democrats hoping to unseat Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger began to officially morph into a hard-edged, nasty political grudge match this week.(SF Chron 4/7/06)

Well, I must agree that it’s nastiness has been ratcheted up this week.  This nastiness is really only helping Arnold.  But the Chronicle found somebody else to say that:

State Controller Steve Westly and state Treasurer Phil Angelides, stalled in what polls show is a tight contest for the Democratic nomination for governor and unknown by most voters, have started what Democratic strategist Chris Lehane calls “a knife fight in a telephone booth.”

“And the winner is whoever has the biggest knife,” Lehane said. “Exactly what Arnold was hoping for, and looking for.”

Well, I can only plead so much.  The negative stuff between the two candidates is injurious to the party.  Maybe Strimling has a point…

SB 1437: Taking Homophobia Out of the Classroom

Senate Bill 1437 was passed from the Senate Judiciary Committee on April 5, 2006.  The bill bans discrimination in school textbooks based upon sexual orientation.  Further, it encourages the inclusion of LGBT contributions when students learn about contributions of other minorities.  The Bill has become very controversial amongst the state’s conservatives and evangelical Christians.

This bill is a good idea.  I wrote a paper about it that is now available online.  Click here for the paper.  Enjoy!

Angelides gives us a few more ideas of his plan

(A few thoughts on taxes as April 15 draws near… – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I am very impressed with Angelides for a statement he made this afternoon and reported by Dan Weintraub.  Now, I’m not sure that Weintraub was so impressed, but I think it’s great to get some of this information out in the open.  I’ve been quite critical about the promises both candidates have been making, mainly because neither has been very suggestive in how he plans to pay for that.  But Weintraub says Angelides knows what he has to do:

But I think he made even more substantive news in a quick question and answer session with reporters afterward. In response to a question, he laid out, for the first time, a plan to raise between $8 billion and $10 billion in taxes to balance the budget and pay for his priorities in expanding it.

Angelides didn’t use that number. But he did say that, by his calculations, corporations and the wealthy have received $17 billion in tax breaks and tax cuts from California and the federal government in the past several years. And he said he would go after as much of that money as he needed to balance the budget and cover the commitments he has made during his campaign.

That $10 Billion includes school funding, Prop 82,  fixing the structural deficit (YAY!!), and a mishmash of other ideas Phil’s been promoting.  Raising $10 Billion in taxes won’t be easy, but it’s possible.  It has to be possible because the structural deficit can’t last forever.  Yes, we have a bit of extra cash left over from this year, but we can’t expect any more little gifts in the mail.

Westly, as Weintraub points out, has gone out of his way to call himself a fiscal conservative and promised that taxes are a last resort.  Listen, we have to have a balanced budget.  I would rather our candidates tell us how we are going to do that, rather going along on a wing and a prayer hoping the mailman brings us some good news.

Maybe the car tax comes back?  Never say never…

Dem Governor Debate on Univision

(Bumped for update – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE: Bill Bradley did some live blogging from the debate. The debate itself will air on Univision at 10AM on Saturday.  Check your local listings for more details.

Bill Bradley points out a couple of interesting points in the governor’s race.  First, both candidates hav agreed to appear in a debate on Univision’s Voz y Voto.

It’s not clear who pushed for the duel appearance, but it certainly raises the profile of the race this week.  As Mr. Bradley pointed out, this is important for Angelides, who went dark on the TV ads just as Westly announced a major ad buy.  Westly’s money has almost forced Angelides into this head-on tactic.  Angelides isn’t shying away either, he’s announced a speech that highlights the differences between the two candidates.

Well folks, it looks like it’s on now.  I think we are now hitting the point of no return here in that the primary is just going to get nastier.  It’s really quite a shame.  Maybe the contrasting will be limited to issues and avoid name calling.  Maybe.  At any rate, I think the debate is great.  Having this debate on Univision is even better for the party.  It gets the Latino community more involved in the primary, always a good thing. 

This is probably most beneficial for Angelides.  A couple of polls have him trailing Westly.  While I don’t think that is a huge deal at this point, as undecided still beats either candidate, a little free media attention would be a wonderful thing for Phil.

I’ll try to see if I can get any more details about this debate.

Also in Bill’s post, this little tidbit about Willie Brown’s picks:

Also yesterday came the endorsement of Westly by San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris. While Harris is a very respected and popular figure in the Bay Area and in African American circles, the endorsement is especially intriguing for another reason. Her longtime mentor is Willie Brown, a legendary Democratic personality/power broker who had a record-setting tenure as California Assembly speaker before serving two terms as San Francisco mayor.

Several days ago, as the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Wildermuth has reported, Willie Brown told a private political gathering that he sees Westly as the coming thing in the California governor’s race. The decision by Angelides to suddenly debate his long-ignored opponent and to deliver what he calls a major address defining their differences indicates that Brown once again may know what he is talking about.

Well, Willie has a keen eye for politics; it’s what made him so powerful in the assembly for so long.  He is especially good with understanding the Democratic Party.  I’m not sure if he has that much pull left to actually influence the result, but if he does, he’ll probably try. (At least behind the scenes)  But, Willie always understood the impact of money, perhaps a little too well.  Angelides seems to have many things in his favor, except money.  Perhaps Willie is putting a little too much on that.  I guess we’ll have a chance to test the former mayor’s acumen this June.

Feinstein’s Levee Efforts

Diane Feinstein has been working hard to get additional funding for the levees.  (Incidentally, Arnold has also been working on this too.  It has been one area where I actually think his efforts have been somewhat helpful.)  She issued a press release today saying that she got some money through the Senate appropriations committee.  The text of the press release is on the flip.

I am quite pleased about this. The levees are a disaster waiting to happen.  Something has to be done.  Now.  Not 5 years from now.  Now. Good work Senator.

Washington, DC – The Senate Appropriations Committee today approved an amendment sponsored by Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) that would provide $22.305 million to strengthen California levees and flood control.

  Last fall, Congress provided $41.005 million for the highest priority levee restoration and flood control projects in fiscal year 2006.

  “Breaches today in Central Valley levees illustrates that this funding is urgently needed,” Senator Feinstein said.  “This funding would contribute to achieving 100-year flood protection for 95 percent of Sacramento.  And it funds long-term planning efforts.”
  “This is so important because so much is at stake.  Earlier this year, I toured our State’s flood control infrastructure – in Sacramento and throughout the Delta.  I saw beautiful communities, subdivisions, farms, and businesses protected by simple earthen levees.  A major storm or earthquake could lead to major flooding, loss of property, and loss of life.  A major earthquake could bring the State to a halt.  No levees equals no water for two-thirds of the State. No water equals no economy.  And no economy equals no jobs.”

  So it’s absolutely critical that the federal government lives up to its commitment to these communities and the people of California.”

  Senator Boxer said, “The San Joaquin Delta levees are extremely vulnerable to collapse, threatening 2/3 of California’s water supply and the safety of our communities.  Without this extra funding, the Army Corps’ work to assess and improve our levees in the Delta would have stopped next month.  I am pleased the Appropriations Committee included this additional funding, and I thank my colleague Senator Feinstein for her dedicated work on this issue.”

  Specifically, Senator Feinstein’s amendment provides $22.305 million for the following projects:

South Sacramento Streams – $6.25 million

The project in southeastern Sacramento County includes building 12 miles of floodwalls and constructing 13 miles of levee improvements.  The completed project improvements will provide minimum 100-year protection to over 100,000 residents.

Sacramento River Bank Protection – $11.3 million

The project north of the City of Sacramento provides erosion control bank protection for the Sacramento River Flood Control Project levees.  One hundred eighty-three actively eroding sites on levees banks have been identified, 29 of which are considered to have a high potential for failure during the next high water event.

American River Common Features – $3.255 million

This project includes levee improvements along the lower American River and Sacramento River. When complete, these improvements will protect the 50,000 residents of Rancho Cordova in eastern Sacramento County as well as 400,000 City of Sacramento residents downstream.

Delta Islands and Levees Feasibility Study – $1.25 million

This long term feasibility study to conduct the Delta Risk Management Strategy identifies the levees and islands in need of repairs beyond the short term authorized CalFed work.

Short-term Delta levee assessment (CALFED 180-day study) – $250,000

This funding goes to continue coordination and initiate design data collection on projects related to the recommendations found in the Sacramento – San Joaquin Delta Report to Congress (180-day report).

Education Funding Speeches from Angelides and Westly

Both Angelides and Westly spoke at the state convention of Education Trust-West, a group which, according to its website, is “squarely and relentlessly focused on California’s most serious problem: the huge achievement gaps separating poor students and students of color from other young Californians.” 

They both agreed we need to provide additional funding for our schools.  Right now, it appears that there is some sort of consensus being built around additional funding for K-12.  Well, at least among Democrats.  This is a good thing.  Now comes the point where disagreement arises, how the hell do we pay for the additional funding?  Heck, how do we even pay to get to Prop 98 levels?

Check the flip…

Westly went first, focusing on his plan to alter lottery payouts:

Steve Westly, the state controller, promised to raise K-12 funding by changing the payout formula for the California Lottery to offer a smaller percentage in prizes for lottery ticket buyers and a larger share of revenues for schools.
***
Westly…charged that California is turning its back on public education. “We have tied their (students’) hands with funding cuts, crowded classrooms and broken schools,” he said. “If we want a high school degree to stand for something, we have to stand by our kids.”
***
In an interview, Westly said he wasn’t sure if he would need to bring a new initiative before voters to rewrite the lottery funding program from the 1984 voter-approved California Lottery Act or whether he could put into law a reform measure passed by the Legislature.

“While it was passed by voters,” Westly said of the lottery initiative,”a lot of voters thought more money would be going to education.”
(Sac Bee 4/4/06)

Well, as Angelides’ people brought up, there will be a problem with the lottery plan.  Namely, it will be hard to maintain the same amount of people buying if we lower payouts.  Also, multi-state programs, which we have had several brief flirtations with, have fixed payouts.  Personally, I’m not a huge fan of lotteries in general.  They are somewhat of a “math-impairment tax,” and take away money from those who really need it.  Let’s face it, spending on lottery tickets is disproportionately focused in the lower quintiles.  The Charlotte Observer did a piece on this last month regarding North Carolina’s new lottery.

In South Carolina, where the lottery sells dreams of riches, those who can afford it the least spend the most.  Low-income people also spend a greater portion of their income on the games than more affluent players, according to an Observer examination of four years of lottery data.  Experts suggest that North Carolina can expect similar rates when its lottery starts March 30.

“When North Carolina’s lottery starts up, there will be financial problems for some households. The state needs to be ready to step in for services,” said Duke University public policy professor Philip Cook, who has studied lotteries.

Like the Palmetto state, North Carolina plans to offer counseling referrals and other services to people with gambling problems. Neither state lottery will target low-income players.  Cook said in most states, the dollar amount spent on lotteries generally does not fluctuate much over income brackets.  But in South Carolina, the Observer found that lower-income people spend more. People earning less than $30,000 a year spent an estimated $627 per household annually, nearly triple the spending of those making more than $50,000.(Charlotte Observer 3/18/06)

However, I do agree with Westly that if we are going to have a lottery, that we should be sending all of that revenue to our schools.  Tweaking the formula will probably help, but I’m a little suspect about the ability to totally fund our schools using the lottery funding.

On the other hand, Angelides wants a tax on the highest bracket and the closure of corporate loopholes:

Phil Angelides, the state treasurer, sold his plan to tax high-income earners and close corporate tax loopholes to pay for training and recruiting more teachers for public schools as well as rolling back student fee increases at the University of California and California State University systems.
***
Angelides also chided both Westly and Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who say they don’t support a tax increase, for being in denial over how to fund education.
***
Angelides, noting that California has the largest number of low-income students and English learners of any state, complained that the state ranks near the bottom in education spending, declaring: “We are never going to have first-rate schools with second-rate levels of investment.”
Turning his attention to Westly and Schwarzenegger and their stated resistance to raising taxes, Angelides said: “Let’s be clear. I’m the only candidate for governor who will do what it takes to fully fund our schools and balance the state budget.”(Sac Bee 4/4/06)

Now, with a tax, you have the ability to select how much money you can take.  Also, the increase of a state income tax doesn’t hit most taxpayers as hard as federal income tax increases due to the fact that most taxpayers can deduct their state tax.  However, the Alternative Minimum Tax is biting into that benefit.  There has been a lot of discussions of fixing the AMT, but it doesn’t look to happen this year with the election.  It would cost the federal government hundreds of billions, so the correction of the AMT would require cuts in services or raising other taxes.  Or, if you are W, neither and let your grandchildren pay for it.  Woohoo, I got me a credit card.

Back from that federal diversion, there is another issue with taxing the upper incomes.  We are going to be taxing them for Prop 82, if it passes.  An additional tax on top of that might make some people move.  Maybe.  Just maybe.  I’m somewhat skeptical of this argument, but I think it must be considered.  Of course, the passage of Prop 82 would probably hinder this component of Angelides’ plan.

And this brings me back to my opposition of the supermajority rules.  If the state didn’t have these arcane supermajority rules, perhaps we wouldn’t be arguing about 82 vs. 98.  The funding could be considered in an ordinary and orderly budget process.  But nope, Howard Jarvis doesn’t want it that way.  And you know Grover Norquist would go crazy if the supermajority rules were ever repealed. (Btw, what better reason is there to reform the supermajority rules than to give Norquist a hissy fit?)

Also on that note,  Is Angelides going to get a supermajority to increase taxes?  And if not, will he be able to get a ballot measure through?  It will be difficult.  My word, governing this state is quite a challenge.  I think Peter Shrag is right, the structure of California politics is broken:

But in the long meantime, California’s cumbersome governmental machinery – its supermajority vote requirements, its auto-pilot spending mandates, its incomprehensible fiscal machinery, its wild-card initiative process – make it appear that despite voters’ expressed desires, they really aren’t sure they want the thing to work at all. (Sac Bee 2/2/06)

I agree with closing loopholes, but who doesn’t in the abstract?  Specifics of the plan are probably necessary in order to determine if that’s actually going to bring in a lot of money.  Plus, some of those “loopholes” might be incentivising business in the state.  I don’t know.  The Franchise Tax Board is going after tax shelters this year, so perhaps that can help matters with upper income tax fraud. 

However, in general, I think both ideas are a good start.  We are probably going to have to throw most of the kitchen sink at these funding issues, so every idea should be welcome.  At least we are talking about the issue, Arnold has been so busy talking about his pretty infrastructure bonds that he’s be neglecting the school funding issues.

Angelides’ Interesting Infrastructure Plan and Some Bond Notes

(I’m really excited about this idea. Crossposted to dKos. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Phil Angelides has come up with an interesting idea for developing our infrasturucture:

State Treasurer Phil Angelides, a candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, weighed in on the ongoing political debate over infrastructure Monday by urging California’s public-employee pension plans to invest some of their multibillion-dollar portfolios in public construction projects.

Angelides said the Public Employees Retirement System and the State Teachers Retirement System should put about $15 billion into toll roads, energy-conservation efforts and other projects “where there is an income stream, and we should get it, not private companies.”(Sac Bee 4/3/06)

I really, really like this idea.  How can the pension funds do more for the state of California than actually investing in our infrastructure?  These are reasonable rates of return for the funds as well.  At any rate it’s $15 Billion less that we have to borrow from private and foreign investors.

Also, Dan Weintraub predicts that we might see a bond deal soon:

Separately, legislative leaders have been meeting to try to reach agreement on a public works bond package, and at least some aides believe that agreement could come as soon as this week.(Weintraub’s California Insider 4/3/06)

I’ll believe it when I see it, but I would sure love this to happen already.  The constant bond watch is getting a tad bit tedious and is taking away attention from other issues. (Well, I must admit that I kind of like all the bond discussions.  But, I know I’m strange in my passion for this stuff.)

What the California Right cares about: Grover Norquist

Michelle Steel, who is running for the BOE 3rd district, has proclaimed loudly on her website that she has been endorsed by Grover Norquist and his “Taxpayer Advocate” orginization.  She is proud of this.  Seriously, I am not kidding.  Grover has been involved in the Abramoff scandal and several others, yet Steel still wants his endorsement.

Well, I guess Ray Haynes always has his Howard Jarvis (Prop 13) endorsement.  Ick!

I wasn’t able to find if there was a Dem running for the position. Anybody know?